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iii
Preface
About This Document
The U.S. scientific, technical, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce makes key
contributions to the nation’s economic growth, national security, and other national goals.
Given the importance of this workforce, monitoring and understanding its health and
vitality are in the national interest. In 2003, a RAND Corporation study examined the issue
of potential labor shortages in this workforce, which has been a recurring concern in federal
policy circles since the 1950s. The study posed two questions: Are the current data on this
workforce adequate to support relevant decisionmaking and, if not, what improvements are
necessary?
To address this issue, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation asked RAND to convene a technical conference to discuss the
current state of data gathering on the U.S. STEM workforce and how data for decisionmak-
ing might be improved. The conference included participants from federal research and
development (R&D) and statistical agencies and researchers from universities and founda-
tions. This volume provides each paper delivered at the conference, as well as three sections
that RAND analysts prepared: an introduction, a rapporteur’s summary, and list of priority

• helps improve understanding in both the public and private sectors of the ways in
which science and technology can better serve national objectives.
In carrying out its mission, the Institute consults broadly with representatives from
private industry, institutions of higher education, and other nonprofit institutions.
Inquiries regarding the work described in this document may be directed to the
address below.
Debra Knopman
Assistant Director
RAND Science and Technology
1200 South Hayes Street
Arlington, VA 22202-5050
Tel: 703.413.1100, ext. 5667
Web: www.rand.org/scitech
v
Contents
Preface iii
Figures
ix
Tables
xi
Acknowledgments
xiii
Abbreviations
xv
PART I
Prologue
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction 3
Overview
3

Discovery and Innovation?
Michael P. Crosby and Jean M. Pomeroy
21
Abstract
21
Introduction
21
vi The U.S. Scientific and Technical Workforce: Improving Data for Decisionmaking
Data Needs for Policy and Planning 22
An Appropriate Focus for a National Dialogue
22
Common Definitions
24
Global S&E
25
Summary and Conclusion
26
References
26
CHAPTER FOUR
Does America Face a Shortage of Scientists and Engineers?
Ronald Ehrenberg
28
References
31
CHAPTER FIVE
Data! Data! My Kingdom for Data! Data Needs for Analyzing the S&E Job Market
Richard B. Freeman
32
Data Use Determines Data Needs

49
References
49
CHAPTER SEVEN
What Data Do Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Agency
Policymakers Need?
Judith A. Ramaley
51
Phase 1 Agenda Setting: The Overall Functions of the National Science Foundation
51
Phase 2 Formulation and Selection of Goals: The Goals of the National Science Foundation
52
Phase 3A Program Implementation: A Capsule Portrait of the Education and Human
Resources Directorate at the National Science Foundation
52
Phase 3B Program Implementation: Workforce for the 21st Century Priority Area
54
Phase 4 Evaluation and Assessment of Impact of Programs and Phase 5: Decisions
About the Future of Policy and Programs
54
Reference
59
Contents vii
CHAPTER EIGHT
What Data Do STEM Agency Policymakers Need? Workforce Planning for the Future:
The NASA Perspective
Patrick Simpkins
60
Data as Part of an Integrated Picture
60

Informing the S&E Workforce Policy Issues
74
Do NSF Data Systems Inform the Policy Issues? What Are the Challenges
for This Decade?
75
Improvements Under Way to Enhance the Capabilities of NSF Data Collections
77
Foreign Scientists and Engineers in the United States: The Challenge of Keeping
the Data Current
80
The Challenges
80
References
80
CHAPTER TEN
Opportunities and Challenges at the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Michael W. Horrigan
82
Summary
89
CHAPTER ELEVEN
U.S. Census Bureau Data and the Science and Technology Workforce
Comments by Robert Kominski
90
Reference
92
CHAPTER TWELVE
Opportunities and Challenges at the National Center for Education Statistics
C. Dennis Carroll
93

100
Members of the STEM Workforce
100
Students and Their Advisors
100
Labor Market Researchers
100
Crosscutting Themes
101
A Broader Context: General STEM Competency
101
Revisiting Key Assumptions About Training and Careers
101
Data Coordination and Collection Issues
101
Identifying Workforce Shortages and Surpluses
102
The Global Dimension
103
What Data Do Decisionmakers Require? What Data Can Producers Supply?
103
Concluding Observations
106
CHAPTER FOURTEEN
Priority Data Improvements 107
Current Job Market Conditions
107
Comparative Graduate Program Data
107
Private Industry Data

5.1. Alternative Estimates of the Proportion of Scientists and Engineers
Who Are Foreign-Born, by Degree
36
5.2. Ten Suggestions for Improving the Database and Analysis of the Science
and Engineering Workforce
42
8.1. Competencies Representing NASA’s Critical Needs: 4th Quarter,
FY 2004 Analysis
67
10.1. Employment and Nominal Wage Change for All Workers and for
Selected Engineering Occupations, 1994 to 2000
85
10.2. Experienced Unemployment Rate for All Workers and for Mechanical
and Industrial Engineers, 1994 to 2000
86
10.3. Percent Distribution of All Workers and Mechanical and Industrial
Engineers, by Selected Characteristics, 1994–1996 to 1998–2000
87
10.4. Employment by Selected Occupation, 2002 and Projected 2012
88

xiii
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to thank the conference participants for their contributions to the event
and to this document. We would also like to thank our reviewers, Charles Goldman and
Roger Benjamin of RAND, for their thoughtful comments and questions, as well as Debra
Knopman and Steven Popper of RAND S&T for their insights. We also owe thanks to Lisa
Sheldone of RAND S&T for coordinating peer reviews and publication; to Phyllis Gilmore
for her careful and rigorous editing; and, last but not least, to Mary DeBold for her tireless
assistance in organizing the conference and in helping us produce this document.

GRF Graduate Research Fellowships (NSF)
xvi The U.S. Scientific and Technical Workforce: Improving Data for Decisionmaking
GSS Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and
Engineering
GUIRR Government-University-Industry Research Roundtable
IERI Interagency Education Research Initiative, a joint initiative by the National
Science Foundation and the Department of Education to Support
scientific research that studies educational interventions.
IGERT Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship program (NSF)
IPEDS Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
IT information technology
ITAA Information Technology Association of America
K–12 kindergarten through 12th grade
LED Longitudinal Establishment Data
LSAMP Louis-Stokes Alliances for Minority Participation
MBA master of business administration
MORG Merged Outgoing Rotation Group
MS master of science
NAS National Academy of Sciences
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NBER National Bureau of Economic Research
NCES National Center for Education Statistics
NDEA National Defense Education Act of 1958
NELS National Education Longitudinal Study
NIH National Institutes of Health
NPSAS National Postsecondary Student Aid Study
NRC National Research Council
NS&E natural science and engineering
NSB National Science Board
NSCG National Survey of College Graduates

subsidiary of the Thomson Corporation
TPC Teacher Professional Continuum
UIUC University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization
U.S.C. United States Code
USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
WMPD Women, Minorities and Persons with Disabilities in Science and
Engineering

Part I
Prologue

3
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
Overview
1
Among many knowledgeable observers, the size and adequacy of the U.S. scientific, techni-
cal, engineering, and mathematics (STEM)
2
workforce have been recurring concerns. There
are fears that the U.S. STEM workforce is aging and that its labor pool may soon dwindle.
There are parallel fears that looming shortfalls in key skill areas may erode U.S. leadership in
some science and engineering fields and that the growing proportion of non-U.S. citizens
obtaining STEM degrees in the United States could complicate the task of mobilizing U.S.
scientific and technological manpower for homeland security. However, evidence for these
periodically anticipated shortages in the general STEM workforce has been hard to find.
Indications of resulting national crises have, so far, been even less evident.
The failure of previously anticipated STEM workforce shortages to materialize
should not be grounds for complacency. Were such shortages to arise, the implications could

Alarms over the numbers of STEM personnel graduating and working in the United States
have been raised on numerous occasions. The earliest alarm, triggered by Sputnik and
accompanied by concerns about K–12 education in the United States, led to landmark fed-
eral legislation, the National Defense Education Act of 1958 (NDEA). The federal govern-
ment dramatically increased funding for science and engineering education, resulting in the
production of more newly trained scientists and engineers than there were jobs available
during the early 1970s.
More recently, in the mid-1980s, the National Science Foundation (NSF) predicted
“looming shortfalls” of scientists and engineers. No such shortfalls occurred and subsequent
government hearings criticized the NSF for releasing these predictions.
Roughly a decade later, the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA)
projected massive shortfalls in the availability of information technology workers. The Office
of Technology Assessment (1988), relying on the ITAA analyses, echoed their warnings of
future shortfalls of STEM workers. Again, there is no evidence that the predicted shortfalls
occurred. A General Accounting Office (GAO) assessment of these projections criticized the
methods used to develop them and the data on which they were based.
Various organizations have continued to examine the STEM workforce and have
argued that their results imply growing gaps between the numbers of positions that require
STEM workers and the numbers of STEM workers available. These organizations include
the Institute of Medicine (1995), the National Research Council (2000a), and the National
Science and Technology Council (2000).
In view of an “unfolding crisis for U.S. science and technology,” a task force of the
NSB called for “a coordinated response to meet our long-term needs for science and engi-
neering skills in the U.S. workforce” (NSB, 2003, p. 1). The report went on to recommend a
national policy imperative, stating that “all stakeholders must mobilize and initiate efforts
that increase the number of U.S. citizens pursuing science and engineering studies and
careers” (NSB, 2003, p. 2).
3
What are the likely causes of these supposed shortfalls? Sputnik raised a red flag
about the quality of American education and the need for a stronger federal role in improv-

the opportunity costs of preparation for entry into science careers.
• Demographic trends also have an effect—specifically, minority populations (such as
Hispanics and African-Americans) that, for a variety of reasons, have traditionally
been less likely to pursue STEM careers have grown.
Other possible causes for the decline in the number and proportion of U.S. citizens earning
STEM doctorates have overseas roots. For example,
• The increasing attractiveness of holding a doctorate earned in the United States could
lead more foreign students to apply to U.S. universities, thus displacing U.S. stu-
dents.
• The international professional networks that have been established over decades have
had a snowball effect, with a growing stream of top foreign candidates applying to
work with their U.S. mentors and friends.
• Foreign science students increasingly desire to live and work in the United States after
training here.
4
However, many of these claims of shortfalls are suspect or are based on metrics that
must be taken in context. Viewed broadly since the 1950s, evidence for the periodically
anticipated shortages in the general STEM workforce has been hard to find. Indications of
____________
4
However, the number of foreign students applying to U.S. graduate schools has declined in the wake of visa rule changes
following September 11, 2001. If this development becomes a long-term trend, it could affect the labor pool for the U.S.
STEM workforce. See, for example, a recent survey conducted by the Council of Graduate Schools, which reported that
graduate applications from international students have declined at more than 90 percent of U.S. universities for the fall
2004 term, and the number of submissions fell 32 percent from 2003 (“New Survey Confirms Sharp Drop in Applications
to U.S. Colleges from Foreign Graduate Students,” 2004). There have also been concerns that foreign students who would
once have applied to U.S. universities might instead be choosing universities in the United Kingdom and Australia (Associ-
ated Press, 2003).