Radiscovering Vietnam s Real Estate Potential - pdf 11

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ƒ Highest demand for serviced apartments
ƒ Very limited supply, especially for International quality
projects. There are 7 grade A serviced apartment projects
provide over 500 units from 1 to 4 bedrooms.
ƒ Average occupancy rate is now 96% (both grade A and B)
with most marketable size of 1 & 2 bedrooms, from 50 – 80
sqm
ƒ The rent for most of the serviced apartments are up by 10 –
20%, from US$22 to US$31 per sqm per month in January
2006 to US$25 to US$35 in December 2006
ƒ Due to the limited supply and growing demand, rent are
expected to keep rising during 2007


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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
Completed Condominium Units year-by-year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Over US$2,000 141 252
US$1,501 - US$2,000 526
US$1,001 - US$1,500 97 66 270 405
US$600 - US$1,000 798 124 1,110 1,965 1,330
Less US$600 552 1,594 881
1999 2003 2004 2005 2006 Q1/07
CB Richard Ellis | Page 21
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
Average Se l l ing P r i ce Change of T ypical High-end Condo
P rojects in Dist r i c t 1
Indochina P ark
Tower
US$ 1800
Indochina P ark
Tower
US$ 1,500
The Lancaster
US$ 3,450
The Lancaster
US$ 2,050
Avalon
US$ 2,800
Avalon
US$ 2,089
Ho rizon
US$ 1,300Ho rizon
US 850
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2003 2004 2005 Q1/ 06 Q2/ 06 Q3/ 06 Q4/ 06 Q1/ 07
CB Richard Ellis | Page 22
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
Average Se l l ing P r i ce Change of Typical High-end Condo
P rojects in Di str i ct 2 and Binh Thanh
R iver Garden
US$ 900
R iver Garden
US$ 1,400
Saigon P earl
US$ 1,100
Saigon P earl
US$ 1,500
The M ano r
US$ 2,200
The M ano r
US$ 1,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2003 2004 2005 Q1/ 06 Q2/ 06 Q3/ 06 Q4/ 06 Q1/ 07
CB Richard Ellis | Page 23
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
Ratio between launched and sold units year-by-year
0
9000
18000
27000
36000
45000
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Accumulation of
remaining units
648 798 922 3226 6284 12082 22755 36909
Acummulation of sold
units
0 72 100 708 2,609 6,913 12,810 19,517
Average ratio between
sold and available
0% 9% 11% 22% 42% 57% 56% 53%
1994 1998 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
CB Richard Ellis | Page 24
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC – FUTURE SUPPLY
Projects will be completed in 2007 – 2009
Central Garden-D.1 Hung Vuong Plaza-D.5 Cantavil-D.2 River Garden-D.2 Capitaland Vista-D.2 Ben Thanh Orient
Plaza-D.1
New Development year-by-year
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Condo uni ts 10,152 11,081 10,995
Projects 44 33 12
2007 2008 2009
CB Richard Ellis | Page 25
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
TRENDS:
9New money flow from stock market into property.
9Strong investment wave from Asia: Korea, Japan,
Singapore. Keen on buying projects already licensed and
under construction instead of leasing land, developing from the
beginning.
9Hot market with more money from foreign institutional
and individual investors activated by Land Law effective
from 1 Jul 06 and Property Trading Law from 1 Jan 07.
9With encouraging Government policies, more developers
investing in low income projects.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 26
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
TRENDS:
9Price of low to mid end projects expected to be stable.
9Price of high end projects with good zoning and
infrastructure remain high.
9More buyers have real needs and there will not be as many
as speculators as previously.
9Demand forecasted to be increased 6-7% in a few years to
come partly thanks to loan flexibility of banks.
9Buyers become more and more savvy, so developer’s
brand plays a more and more important role.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 27
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RESIDENTIAL VILLA HCMC
Phu GIa – PMH town Thao Nguyen SG-D.9 Thu Duc Garden Home-TD Villa Riviera – D.2 An Phu Dong Villa – D.12
Price Trend of Phu Gia, Villa Riviera and Thu Duc Garden Home
(from launch to Q4/06)
US$1,000
30%
US$2,000
210%
90%
70%
50%
US$1,500
US$2,400
33%
20%
US$680
U$S700
3%0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Phu Gia - PMH town
(launched in 2001)
Villa Riviera - D.2
(launched in 2004)
Thu Duc Garden Home
(launched in 2005)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 28
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HCMC RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE MARKET OVERVIEW
Ho Chi Minh City Serviced Apartments
Positives:
9 No Maintenance
9 Facilities – Gym, Pool
9 Security
9 Fully Furnished
Negatives:
9 Difficult Termination
9 Higher Rental Cost
9 Generic Appearance
9 Less Usable Area
Current Serviced Apar tments
0
40
80
120
160
200
D i
a m
o n
d P
l a z
a
S h
e r a
t o n
( O
c e
a n
P l
a c
e )
N o
r f o
l k
M a
n s
i o n
S e
d o
n a
S u
i t e
s
S o
m e
r s e
t C
h a
n c
e l l
o r
C
o u
r t
S o
m e
r s e
t H
C M
C
L a
n d
m a
r k
L T
T C
o u
r t
H B
T C
o u
r t
C i
t y
V i e
w
Units
0
10
20
30
40
50
Supply Average Rent ($US/sqm/mth)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 29
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District 1 & 3
ƒ Highest demand for serviced apartments
ƒ Very limited supply, especially for International quality
projects. There are 7 grade A serviced apartment projects
provide over 500 units from 1 to 4 bedrooms.
ƒ Average occupancy rate is now 96% (both grade A and B)
with most marketable size of 1 & 2 bedrooms, from 50 – 80
sqm
ƒ The rent for most of the serviced apartments are up by 10 –
20%, from US$22 to US$31 per sqm per month in January
2006 to US$25 to US$35 in December 2006
ƒ Due to the limited supply and growing demand, rent are
expected to keep rising during 2007.
RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC
CB Richard Ellis | Page 30
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RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC
An Phu, An Khanh, District 2
ƒ Still an attractive area for tenants with family
ƒ Limited good quality villas and serviced
apartments
ƒ Few new developing projects in apartments and
gated compound (River View and River Garden)
ƒ Average rent of US$2,500 to 3,500 per month.
With a 15% - 20% increase in rental prices within
the past year.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 31
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RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC – IN DISTRICT 2
$11$5,0004504
Nguyen U
Di
$4.50$9002002
Thao Dien
Villa
$6.25$2,5004004
Thao Dien
Compound
$9$3,3003503Le Van Mien
$12$7,0006005
Nguyen Van
Huong
Rent/SQMAsking
Rent/Month
SQMBedroomsPictureLocation
CB Richard Ellis | Page 32
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RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC - 2007 NEW SUPPLY
1,160
11,300
3,300
27,531
Total
sqm
10 – 12
11 - 20
30 - 38
21 - 32
Target Rent
$/sqm/mth
Unit
types
No of
Units
CompletionLocationProject
4-5 bdrs11January 2007
Saigon Queen Villa
Nguyen Van
Huong, An Phu,
District 2,
15 minutes to CBD
1-4 bdrs100February 2007
Green Hills
Lot 25, Quang
Trung Software
Park, District 12, 40
minutes to CBD
1-3 bdrs40 - 50February/ March
2007
The Lancaster
Le Thanh Ton
Street, District 1,
CBD
2-4 bdrs228
February/March
2007
Pasteur Court
Pasteur Street,
District 3, 5 minutes
to CBD
CB Richard Ellis | Page 33
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An Phu Small SA
The Manor 2
Kumho Asiana Plaza Times Square
Saigon Riverview Apartments Saigon Pearl
RESIDENTIAL FOR LEASE HCMC - FUTURE PROJECTS
CB Richard Ellis | Page 34
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VN STOCK MARKET
VN Index from 18 July 2000 to 27 February 2007
CB Richard Ellis | Page 35
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VN STOCK MARKET
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2007
VN index
28/7/2000:2 listed companies - VN Index: 100 – Daily turnover Avg. $45m
27/2/2007:107 listed companies & 2 funds- VN Index: 1167.36 - Market capitalisation:$15b
VN Index: increased by 9.5 times
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2000 2007
Market cap
Market cap: increased by 300 times
CB Richard Ellis | Page 36
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100 RICHEST PEOPLE IN VIETNAM
(Till 3rd Jan 2007)
71,625,500MPCDeputy DirectorChu Thị Bình - Deputy Director5
71,625,500MPCMinh Phú Fisheries
Lê Văn Quang - Chairman &
General
Director
4
74,562,500FPT
FPT- Technology
Investment and
Development Co.
Bùi Quang Ngọc - Vice Chairman &
Deputy Director
3
106,625,000FPT
FPT- Technology
Investment and
Development Co.
Lê Quang Tiến – Vice Chairman &
Deputy Director2
147,125,000 FPT
FPT- Technology
Investment and
Development Co.
Trương Gia Bình – Chairman &
General Director
1
Value (US$)CodeListed companiesName Rank
CB Richard Ellis | Page 37
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Goes Here
HCMC RETAIL MARKET
2004 RANK2005 RANK2006 RANKCOUNTRY
8910TURKEY
579CROATIA
458SLOVENIA
667LATVIA
--6CHILE
345CHINA
1134UKRAINE
783VIETNAM
122RUSSIA
211INDIA
Source: AT Kearny
Top 10 Countries for Retail Investment
CB Richard Ellis | Page 38
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Goes Here
HCMC RETAIL MARKET
HCMC Shopping Centre Existing Supply
6,252
5,700
8,000
1,366
6,810
21,797
17,000
14,670
18,000
5,000
5,000
Saigon Centre
Dist. 1
Saigon Superbowl
Tan Binh
Diamond Plaza
Dist. 1
Lucky Plaza
Dist. 1
Zen Plaza
Dist. 1
Thuan Kieu Plaza
Dist. 5
Parkson
Dist. 1
Tax Plaza
Dist. 1
An Dong Plaza
Dist. 5
Saigon Square
Eden Mall
Dist. 1
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
...
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