The management of foreign exchange rate regime in a market-oriented economy. - pdf 22

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Page|2Supervisor:MSc.LePhongChauStudent:DangVuongAnh1.5.3.Currencycrisis.........................................................................................................291.5.4.Politicaleconomy....................................................................................................30CHAPTER2:THEEVALUATIONONEXCHANGERATEREGIMEOFVIETNAMOVERTIME..............................................................................................................................322.1.ThemanagementofforeignexchangerateregimesandthefluctuationofforeignexchangerateinVietnamthroughperiods................................................................................322.2.EvaluationoftheforeignexchangeregimemanagementonVietnam’seconomy........342.2.1.EffectsofforeignexchangerateregimeonBOP....................................................342.2.2.Effectsofforeignexchangerateregimesoninflation............................................372.3.Factoreffectingtheselectionofforeignexchangerateregime......................................402.3.1.Interestrate..............................................................................................................402.3.2.Theexpectationlevelofchangingforeignexchangerateregime...........................412.3.3.Inflation...................................................................................................................412.3.4.ThedecreaseintheinterventionlevelofCentralBank..........................................422.4.ShortcomingsofSBV’smanagementoncurrentexchangerateregime........................43CHAPTER3:SELECTINGANAPPROPRIATEFOREIGNEXCHANGERATEREGIMEINTHEPERIODOFRECOVERYINVIETNAM..................................................................453.1.TheeconomyofVietnamintherecoveryperiod...........................................................453.1.1.Theopportunities.....................................................................................................453.1.2.Thedifficultiesandchallenges................................................................................463.1.3.Implicationtotheforeignexchangerateregime.....................................................473.2.Recommendationsonselectinganappropriateforeignexchangerateregimeintherecoveryperiod..........................................................................................................................483.2.1.Recommendationsonforeignexchangerateregimeselectionandmanagement...493.2.1.1.Narrowthegapbetweenofficialandunofficialexchangeratemarket...........493.2.1.2.Implementthecrawlingfloatingexchangerateregime...................................503.2.2.Suggestionsaboutsupportingpoliciesforregulatingexchangerateregime..........523.2.3.Othersrecommendations.........................................................................................553.2.3.1.Buildingandfollowinguptheearlywarningmodelofforeignexchangerateandmarketcrisis................................................................................................................553.2.3.2.Controllingforeignexchangerateregimethroughotherfactors.....................59CONCLUSION..........................................................................................................................63REFERENCES..........................................................................................................................65

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