World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media

1
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
Table of Contents
PREFACE 3
WHAT ARE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS? 5
ADITYA CHOWDHARY - CLIENT SERVICES DIRECTOR MARKETELLIGENT 5
BEYOND SENTIMENTS 10
ZISHAN ANSARI - SENIOR BUSINESS ANALYST, TARGET CORPORATION 10
SOCIAL MEDIA STRATEGIES FOR THE DATA DRIVEN NEWSROOM 17
DENNIS MORTENSEN – CEO, VISUAL REVENUE 17
TOO MUCH TALK IN ANALYTICS & TOO LITTLE ACTION! 24
AJAY KELKAR – COO, HANSA CEQUITY 24
ACTIONABLE ANALYTICS 28
JAMES TAYLOR – CEO, DECISION MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS 28
UNDERSTANDING AND MEASURING SOCIAL INFLUENCE 34
ARUN SUNDARARAJAN - PROFESSOR AND NEC FACULTY FELLOW, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY’S STERN SCHOOL
OF BUSINESS 34
HOW SOCIAL MEDIA CAN REVEAL THE MYSTERY OF BRAND LOYALTY! 37
G.K SURESH - GENERAL MANAGER, ITC FOODS 37
SCRM IN 2013: NEXT GEN SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYTICS 44
BHUPENDRA KHANAL – CEO, SIMPLIFY360 44
SOCIAL MEDIA BEST PRACTICES 53
ANKITA GABA - CO-FOUNDER, SOCIAL SAMOSA 53

What Are Predictive Analytics?
Aditya Chowdhary
Aditya Chowdhary, has over 16 years of experience in areas of Application Development, Marketing and Social
Media Analytics. He has worked with global companies like GE, Dell. He was instrumental at Dell to setup the
Social Media Analytics practice and very recently has joined Marketelligent.
4
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
What are predictive analytics?
Aditya Chowdhary - Client Services Director Marketelligent
Predictive analytics have been around for a long time and slowly these
analytic
tools are finding their way into the marketing and social media arenas.
Predictive analytics use behavioural data from past
to predict how individuals will behave in the future.
For instance, your credit score is a predictive model including your
repayment history and other information to predict whether you're a good
credit risk or not.
Predictive models commonly include a number of variables, such as number
of late
payments, and weighing factors that reflect the importance of that variable
in predicting future behavior. These are commonly regression-type models.
5
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
Modern predictive analytics use similar kind of data to build models to

toward products, based on the references from the most credible sources -
our friends – and establishes norms of behavior when we see all our friends
buying the product. So, why aren't these descriptive models being used
more frequently in businesses? In part, that's due to poor exchange between
businesses and
academics ,who seem to speak different languages.
Predictive analytics and social media
Social media analytics is a powerful tool for uncovering customer sentiment
dispersed across the countless online sources. As businesses feel the
pressure
to gain new insights from social media, they require the analytics expertise
to transform this flood of information into actionable strategies.
There is a lot of internet chatter about social media analytics to predict
the future. This field of predictive analytics is in its infancy, but there has
been enough success to generate excitement about its potential.
7
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
In case of social commerce, any kind of buzz is a good buzz because it
directly translates into customer demand. For example, keeping tap of all
the trending topics on Twitter can be a useful exercise to predict future
demands. This allows business to leverage social media and maximize sales.
Though the concept is still in its infancy, 2013 is an exciting time where we
could see some of these concepts being implemented.
8
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social

customers, you would want to build a strategy where you:
· Listen to all that your customers are saying about your brand or a
newly launched product
· Take actions based on customer sentiments
· Redress customer grievances by offering him or her some brownie
points
· And in turn be loved by your customers for being a great listener
10
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
Well, this all works really well when you are running a ‘Mom and Pop Store’.
Why? Because:
· You know who your customers are
· You understand their language
· You understand their moods, their emotions
· You know their preferences
· You know what will please/displease them

How are things different in social media?
Simple answer to this would be – in more ways than one. It is important for
you to understand these differences to figure out whether you need
sentiment analysis or not. .
Not every person is good in expressing themselves in text, and definitely not
in just hundred and forty characters. And this poses a big challenge.
Why? Because, there is no way to capture customer’s facial expression
through social media, nor is there a way to capture voice modulation to
figure out customer’s mood.
With deliberately excluding the discussion about misclassifications that

That’s all the functionality you need to achieve your goal. Rest of the work
will be done by the executives to ensure each customer is satisfied.

Looking beyond sentiments
Say if you had kids. You find out on a Sunday morning that your kids were
annoyed about something and were not looking happy. Being a good parent
you give them permission to go out with friends. If you are a more involved
parent, you would yourself go out with your kids, to make their day. A
12
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
parent very well knows what to do to change the mood of their kids.
As a kid I have really enjoyed that. Sometimes getting annoyed for no good
reason can also get you treats, just because your parents wants you to be
happy always.
But if you were a responsible parent, what else would you do? You would
probably try to understand, why were your kids upset at the first place?
Have they been getting annoyed quite often recently? What are the
circumstances which makes them unhappy?
A responsible company is no different from a responsible parent in this
aspect. It will do a root cause analysis of what actions led to all this. And
they can take actions to ensure that such circumstances do not arise in
future. An organization with a dedicated customer service team can
probably do all what a responsible parent do, given that they know who the
customer is. It can spend resources to get in touch with the customer,
understand his/her concerns, identify the causes of unhappiness and then
act accordingly. It can also go ahead and analyze what were the things that
led to such circumstances.

Probably you need to invest some time to develop that. Remember, there
are no free lunches and there are no free graphs either.
14
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
You can combine the results of the sentiment analysis with the
results of stream graph analysis to infer what circumstances
probably led to positive or negative sentiments. So even if your
sentiment analysis says that 80% of your customers have neutral
opinion and your sales figures are way below your forecasted sales,
a stream graph can help you identify what probably is causing the
low sale. Stream graphs present one way of visualizing the data.
There can be multiple such ways of analyzing it.
A good analyst will always find a suitable way of presenting the
appropriate information that you would like to have in order to
validate your sentiment analysis findings. And remember without
validation, your results from sentiment analysis in the worst case
can be as bad as that from a random classifier.
15
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
Social Media Strategies for
the Data Driven Newsroom
Dennis Mortensen
Dennis Mortensen is CEO & Founder of Visual Revenue, Inc., whose Editorial Support Platform helps editors to
better place content and provides real-time recommendations and predictive analytics to more than 250 global

evangelize and educate. With so many journalists of all stripes now savvy in
social, it has become critical to determine and assign both ownership of the
social channel within the newsroom, as well as ownership of the content
that goes out under each individual feed.

Defining Success in Editor and Publisher Terms
17
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
As more and more people in the newsroom have moved to publishing on the
many social platforms available to them, the movement to measure that
activity has followed. For most individuals, a somewhat limited view of
success in social media is defined simply by response. Did I get re-tweeted?
Favorited? How many @ replies do I have? What’s my Klout score?
This level of measurement is fine for the individual, but not for media
companies – where activity must be measured by the way it delivers
audience, and by how that audience ultimately can be monetized.
For online properties, if you want to increase your audience, that content
must be exposed to new audiences on a regular basis. Publishers
understand this, and most quickly go to Facebook, Twitter or other social
media channels to expand their reach.
Yet the true impact on their business – success or failure – is very difficult to
measure. Sure, they can measure tweets and favorites
and likes and other vanity metrics. It’s easy and
can be a trap that is fallen into quickly. But re-
tweets and favorites and shares only have a
secondary effect upon the business, and they
hardly measure audience interaction.

sophisticated tools.
With the proper tools in hand, news organizations can have more exact
measurements on social media. For example, they can have a means to
determine the difference between tweeting content at 4:23 p.m. and 4:35
p.m., followed by recommended actions based on real-time performance
and consumption data. Additionally, the best tools can tell editors whether
19
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
or not to include photos when sharing or tweeting, which accounts to share
on, and sometimes, the value of sharing specific content multiple times.
This difference can be significant for some properties versus others.
Patterns for when and what to share exist, but they tend to be very much
property-specific. They are so specific that, for example, one news
organization can share content with equally powerful results from dawn ‘til
dusk, while another will only succeed in limited windows. What works for
one news organization won’t work for another, largely as a result of
audience fragmentation having intensified to the degree it has.
Figure 1: Historic Success Measurement for Leading Online Properties
A comparison of activity for two leading online properties, showing hourly clicks
into their article content via social media. Note that one property, in addition
to an overall larger number of clicks per hour, never truly falls to zero, while
the other does so almost every night.
For the editor and the newsroom, this makes their social media activity only
worth the time that they invest in measuring it not for the vanity metrics,
but for the deeper ones. This is where their ability to know true success
from simple failure will show whether their time spent sharing (to grow
their audience) has been well spent.

These new tools simplify data and tell a newsroom when it should tweet and
also what it should be tweeting. The computerized suggestions take on the
21
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media
role of a deputy editor: someone who knows the history of the data, as well
as editorial values of the paper, and can therefore determine the best
publishing strategy to follow.
In the end, it is still the editor making judgment calls. They just happen to
be faster and better calls.

Conclusion
Today’s data-driven newsroom relies on many tools to keep pace with the
real-time nature of communications. Social media is a natural fit for the
newsroom, both in the collection and dissemination of the news, but it
needs to be deployed within a editorial framework. Without one, the
publisher may as well be an individual. But with a clearer, data-driven
strategy for measuring the success and failure of the outbound social media,
the newsroom of today will be ready for the news of tomorrow.
22
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com
Simplify360 eBook: Predictive Analytics The Future of Social
Media

23
World’s First 360° Social Marketing Suit
www.simplify360.com

This is what software architect Grady Booch had in mind when he uttered
that famous phrase: "A fool with a tool is still a fool."
Google-executive-turned-Yahoo-CEO-thought-leader Marissa Mayer
declares "data is apolitical" and that her old company succeeds because it is
so data-driven: "It all comes down to data. Run a 1% test [on 1% of the
audience] and whichever design does best against the user-happiness
metrics over a two-week period is the one we launch. We have a very
academic environment where we're looking at data all the time. We
probably have somewhere between 50 and 100 experiments running on live
traffic, everything from the default number of results to underlined links
to how big an arrow should be. We're trying all those different things."
A recent Ad Age article carried this comment:
British Airways spent almost a decade corralling passenger data from 200
sources into one database. It built infrastructure to support the number
crunching, but perhaps the harder piece, said Simon Talling-Smith, exec
25