FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,
Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry
November 2012
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN
VIETNAM
The case of Mekong River Delta, Vietnam
By
NGUYEN THANH TAN
Student of Advanced Education Program,
Thai Nguyen University of Agriculture and Forestry
Email address: [email protected]
The course of Modern Agriculture Issues, Implications and Impacts
Professor William Steiner, Dean of the College of Agriculture,
Forestry and Natural Resource Management, University of Hawaii, Hilo
November 25, 2012
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FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,
TABLE OF CONTENT
ABSTRACT........................................................................................................ 3
INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………................. 4
• The realities of climate change in Viet nam, particular in Mekong
River Delta…………………………………........................................... 4
• Challenges and impacts to agricultural sector in Vietnam and
Mekong River Delta River in particular............................................... 4
• Interventions policy and solutions......................................................... 5
DISCUSSION AND SUGESSION.................................................................. 6
CONCLUTION AND URGENT ACTION NOW......................................... 8
REFERENCES.................................................................................................. 9

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FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,

reduced by 2.7 millions tons by 2050 under climate change (World Bank, 2010).
Nevertheless, government investment in rural infrastructure and human capital
can mitigate the negative impact of climate change and help farmers adapt. The
result indicates that government investment in Mekong River Delta has the
highest return in agricultural production and poverty reduction, far above
education, road, and irrigation. In preparation for future climate change, it is
important to invest in agricultural rural and development in order to supply
farmers with more drought- and flood-tolerant crop varieties and highly efficient
production practices that are more resilient in adverse soil and weather
conditions.
Keywords: Climate change, agriculture productivity, policy intervention, Mekong River
Delta, Vietnam.
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FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,
INTRODUCTION
This chapter provides an overview of realities of climate change, and the
challenges, impacts to agricultural sector in Vietnam in general and in Mekong
River Delta River in particular. Finally, I will introduce and recommend some
interventions policy and solutions to overcome and adapt to climate change.

The realities of climate change
Climate change is more than a threat; it’s a reality for millions of people in
Vietnam. The impacts of climate change are already destroying livelihoods and
increasing financial, political, social and environmental inequities. Hundreds of
people in the coastal community of Da Loc were heavily damaged by typhoon
Damarely in 2005. Already a million hectares of rice paddy fields have been
contaminated by salt water along the country. The Vietnamese government has
begun planning for a one meter rise in sea level by the end of the century. The
consequences of doing nothing would see more than a third of the Mekong Delta
flooded by then. A spokeswoman for the Tra Vinh Commune People’s

FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,
elevation of Mekong River Delta is roughly five feet above sea level, which
makes it particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels (Yun, 2009). It is estimated
that about 20–30 percent of the Mekong River Delta will be affected by 2100,
and some areas will be salinity (World Bank 2009). IPPC (2007) has warned
that if the sea level rises 1 meter, the Mekong Delta may lose 15,000 – 20,000
km
2
of land, and out 3.5 to 5.0 million of people will be affected. In fact, one-
fourth of the Mekong Delta coastline is already undergoing erosion. More dams
would likely increase this erosion as well as relative sea level rise, and might
worsen water shortages and extend the area affected by salinity during the dry
months. The changing climate could be especially damaging for rice cultivation
due to substantial modifications in land and water resources. It is predicted that
annual rice production of Mekong Delta River may be reduced by 2.7 millions
tons by 2050 under climate change (World Bank, 2010). Furthermore, the
appearances of extreme disasters such as typhoons, floods, and droughts, which
could become more severe and more frequent as the climate changes, would also
affect rice production substantially in the country, because it may lead to many
negative effects on quantity and quality of water supply and food security.
Moreover, the water in the common integrated agriculture-aquaculture system,
which is an efficient farming system supplying both rice and fish/shrimp for
farmers, is unbalanced between rice and fish under the impact of rising sea level.
Because fish is raised mainly in water bodies around rice fields to consume
agricultural by-products and wastes, the failure in each growing state will affect
the others. The change in monthly rainfall distribution such as less rains in early
wet seasons and more heavy rains in the end of the wet reduced rice production.
Rice yields decline 10% with 1
o
C increase in minimum temperature (Peng et al.,

Recognizing potential impacts of climate change, the government of Vietnam
has created a legal framework on sustainable development and climate change
including Viet Nam Agenda 21, the Law on Environmental Protection, disaster
risk mitigation policies, and energy efficiency policies. The implementation of
the framework will substantially improve the living conditions of local
population in Mekong River Delta, protecting themselves and their production
from natural resources and seasonal floods. The project will also initiate socio-
economic development to maintain the Mekong River Delta one of the best rice
production area in the world and diversify local livelihoods to integrate to the
development trend of the country in particular and of the international region as
a whole.
With the main objectives are to strictly protect and manage rice land, many
organizations and agencies acting on climate change sector such as Can Tho
(11/20/2008), Institute of Climate Change Research – Can Tho University
(DRAGON – Mekong – CTU in short), etc. was established; and many research
programs were developed on rice cultivated land to map growing areas for rice
are encouraging by government. They did make a “red line” border in reality for
specialized paddy rice areas and revise some articles of the Land Law 2003 and
issue a government degree on management of rice land. Since 2001, the
governments have increased investment and supplementing budget for rural and
infrastructure development of Mekong River Delta, encouraging the application
of mechanization in food production, harvesting, processing and storage.
Furthermore, it was enhanced public awareness, responsibility and participation,
and develops human resources to respond to climate change. To balance the
floor price for agricultural products which ensure food price subsidy for poor
households and low income groups whenever food prices increased, the
government continues applying reduction fee of free irrigation, increasing to buy
food reserve and support food enterprises to build their facilities for storage and
renewing rice export mechanism.
DISCUSSION AND SUGGESTION

Capacity of organizations doesn’t really meet the requirements to cope and
adapt to climate change. So, it is necessary to improve the capacity, equipment
and co-operation between organizations. Private sector has shown their
responsibility on coping with climate change through many activities such as
greenhouse gas emission surveillance, decreasing power consumption and
developing clean energy. However, this contribution is still restricted and not
specific. This may be due to administrative policies. To cope and mitigate the
impacts of climate changes, it’s necessary to study in depth for each area,
enhance forecasting capacity and improve the accuracy and detail of climate
change scenarios.
Suggestions of Sihymete for next steps (from December 2010 to May
2011):
• Importing and processing meteorological data from 13 monitoring
stations in Mekong Delta. The collected data include: temperature,
rainfall, evaporation, sun hours, wind speed and direction. Data type is
daily. Collecting period is from 1978 to 2009.
• Importing and processing water level data from monitoring stations in
Mekong Delta. Data collected is hourly data. Collecting period is from
1978 to 2009.
• Importing and processing salinity data at monitoring stations in
Mekong Delta. Assessing climate fluctuation in 5 sub – areas of
Mekong Delta (Long Xuyen Rectangle, Ca Mau peninsula, Dong
Thap Muoi, Tien – Hau river and the Eastern coastal zone)
• Assessing salt intrusion trends in seasons; water level trends in
monitoring stations. Making maps of water level trends in the period
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FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,
1978 – 2009.
• Building climate change scenarios for 5 sub areas of the Mekong
Delta to 2100.

tolerant crop varieties and highly efficient production practices that are more
resilient in adverse soil and weather conditions. Research should be carried out
on the construction of sea and river dykes, the construction of fresh water
reservoirs for the dry season and how to recharge groundwater reservoirs.
Planned infrastructural measures for adapting to climate change must address
the whole of the Mekong River Delta, not Can Tho alone. Awareness and
understanding of climate change for local people and government officials is
essential. Support from the international community is needed to help Can Tho
and the Mekong River Delta to find optimal and appropriate measures for
adaptation (ICEM, 5).
Collectively, numerous efforts such as these have already been undertaken by
both national and local government officials in Vietnam as well as across the
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FINAL EXAMINATION PAPER, 2012 BY NGUYEN THANH TAN,
international community to support the Mekong River Delta in adapting to the
growing impacts of climate change. At this point in time, however, whether
these efforts can prevent either mass migrations of refugees from the Mekong
River Delta or corresponding conflicts from occurring is indeterminate.
REFERENCES
⌂ Related Information and Sources:
1. Wassmann, R., N.X. Hien, C.T. Hoanh, and T.P. Tuong. 2004. Sea level rise
affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Water elevation in the flood season and
implications for rice production. Climatic Change66:89-107.
2. Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology and environment of South Vietnam: Vietnam-
Netherlands Mekong Delta, Master plan project, Ho Chi Minh City, 2010.
3. The Vietnam Water Partnership, Report on Climate change activities in Vietnam.
Ha Noi, December, 2010.
4. Nguyen Vu Hoan, M.Eng, Climate Change and Food Security in Vietnam,
Deputy Director of General Affairs Division, ICD Deputy Director of General
Affairs Division, ICD- -MARD MARD