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INTRODUCTION
1. The urgency of the topic
Sustainable development is not only the process of economic development, the
increase of output volume but also the sustainability of the development, which ensure
the progress in terms of economic structure, society and the balance of ecological
environment.
Today, sustainable development is one of the most important missions of every
country, including Vietnam. In order to monitor the country’s development, Vietnam
has set up a system of statistic index on sustainable development with specific target.
However, the indicators in such a system may have some opposite fluctuation. Some
of them develop well over time, while a few others turn to be worse, affecting the
development process negatively. This situation causes some difficulties in assessing
and analyzing the trend of sustainable development. There have been organizations
and individuals being interested in making aggregate indexes for assessment of
sustainable development so as to obtain a broad overview of this issue. However, up to
date there has been no system with specific recommendations being applied in
practice. This context has encourages the author to work on the thesis “Statistic
Research on Assessment of Sustainable Development in Vietnam”, suggesting a
clear, specific and feasible method to calculate the aggregate index of sustainable
development. The author then used the available data of Vietnam in the period 2001 –
2010 to test the method. This thesis, therefore, contributes in answering the questions
by managers “How to assess the real situation of sustainable development in
Vietnam?” and “How was the reality of Vietnam’s sustainable development in the
period 2001 – 2010?”
2. Research objectives
The overall purpose of the thesis is to formulate a method of calculating the
aggregate index for sustainable development so as to implement it in assessing the real
sustainability of development in Vienam. Specifically, the thesis:
- systemizes and clarifies the contents related to sustainable development and
the system of sustainable development index

real data of Vietnam and the above-mentioned formula of calculating aggregate index
on a pilot scheme, analyses the reality of sustainable development in Vietnam over the
past 10 years.
The research results will help Government organizations demonstrate a method
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to synthesize, assess and compare the sustainability of the country’s development.
Besides, the thesis opens a new direction of perfecting the existing system of statistic
index of sustainable development as well as selects a specific method of assessment in
the coming another 10 years.
5. Structure of the thesis
After the Introduction, which mentions the urgency, objectives, target and
scope of the research, the thesis introduces a research overview. The main literature of
the thesis is divided into 3 parts:
Chapter 1: Overview of sustainable development
Chapter 2: Develop a method to calculate aggregate index for assessing
sustainable development in Vietnam
Chapter 3: Pilot calculation and analysis of aggregate index for assessing
sustainable development in Vietnam in the period 2001 – 2010
CHAPTER 1. OVERVIEW OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
1.1.Concepts of development and sustainable development
1.1.1.Development
Development is a popular term used in official documents and daily life. Over
the different stages of historical development, world economic researchers have made
a number of concepts of development.
The concept of development perfects itself along the development of human
society. At present, this concept basically keeps its contents developed in the past
decade but with more emphasis on the human rights. Economic development covers
economic growth, progress in economic structure and social progress.
1.1.2. Sustainable development
The term “sustainable development” came out first in 1980s in the document

contents of sustainable development.
In Vietnam, the issue of sustainable development is made in details in various
political documents, specifically in the Resolutions of the 4
th
Plenary National
Convention of the Communist Party of Vietnam. According to this Resolution, the 10-
year strategy for socio-economic development should “develop fast, efficiently and
sustainably, achieve economic growth along with accomplishment of social progress
and equality and environment protection”, “create socio-economic development in
close link with environment protection and improvement, ensuring the harmony
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between man-made environment and natural environment, conserving ecological
diversity.” [36]. In the next 10 years from 2011 to 2020, sustainable development is a
consistent requirement in the Socio-economic Strategy set by CPV in the 11
th
Plenary
Meeting: “Sustainable development is a basis for fast development, which create
resources for sustainable development in its turn. Fast development and sustainable
development must go together in planning, plans and policies of socio-economic
development " [37].
1.3.Contents of sustainable development
1.3.1.Contents of sustainable development, according to some international
organizations
The Earth Summit on Environment and Development (Rio de Janero 6/1992)
and the ASEM Youth Dialogue on sustainable development agreed that sustainable
development consists of four dimentions, namely economic, social, environmental and
regulatory. Each country should have its regulatory dimension as a basis for the
planning and policy making, as well as the targets to achieve and the communication
for public. Therefore, these two organizations made regulatory dimension equally
important as the three main dimensions which create the sustainable development in

system of statistic index for sustainable development applied in Vietnam on a later day.
1.4.2.Studies of statistic index system for sustainable development in the world
In early 1995, to meet the requirement of UN Committee for Sustainable
Development (UN CSD), the UN Committee for Economic and Social Issues in
cooperation with experts from various international organization and other members
established a system of statistic index includind 134 national indicators of sustainable
development.
In 2001, UN CSD introduced a recommended system of statistic index
including 15 major topics, 38 sub-topics and 58 indicators. This system of index was
adjusted one more time in 2006, serving as a basis for nations to establish their own
system of statistic index for sustainable development.
Other organizations under the UN and various social and non-government
organizations also study and introduce their national index e.g. index of human
development, index of eco footstep, etc.
Different nations also introduce strategies for sustainable development
AGENDA-21 together with a system of statistic index for sustainable development
with a large range of indicators and contents, e.g Indonesia (21 indicators), China (80
indicators), UK (15 indicators), USA (32 indicators)
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1.4.3.Studies of statistic index system for sustainable development in Vietnam
Along with the world trend Vietnamese researchers have studied to set up its
own system of statistic index for sustainable development. The research process gets
the attention of various ministries, industries and organizations. The results include the
introduction of some systems of index. Over time, the system of statistic index for
sustainable development has been perfected and implemented in real life. With
expectation to have a unanimous system of statistic index, on 12 April 2012, The
Prime Minister signed Decision 432/QĐ-TTg to approve the Vietnam’s Strategy for
Sustainable Development period 2011 - 2020. Pursuant to this decision, the system of
statistic index for supervison and assessment of Vietnam’s sustainable development
period 2011 - 2020 consists of 30 indicators with data sources and implementation

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Labor productivity (USD/worker)
MPI (GSO)
2011
6
Proportion of contribution by productivity
of aggregate factors in overall growth rate
(%)
MPI (GSO)
2015
7
Decrease in energy consumption in
production of 1 GDP unit (%)
MPI (GSO)
2015
8
No.
Indicators
Organization in charge
of collection
Plan
8
Proportion of recycle energy in the energy
consumption structure (%)
Ministry of Trade and
Industry
2011
9
Consumption Price Index (CPI) (%
compared with the last December)

16
Rate of trained employees working in the
economy (%)
MPI (GSO)
2011
17
Coefficient of inequality in income
distribution (Gini coefficient) (times)
MPI (GSO)
2011
18
Gender Ratio at birth (boys/100 girls)
Ministry of Health
2011
19
Number of students/10.000 people
(students)
Ministry of Education
and Training
2011
20
Number of Internet subscribers
(subscribers/100 people)
Ministry of Information
and Communication
2011
21
Rate of population benefitted from social,
health and unemployment insurance (%)
Viet Nam Social

Ministry of Environment
and Natural Resources
2011
26
Area of deteorated land (mil. ha)
Ministry of Environment
and Natural Resources
2015
27
Decrease of underground and surface water
volume (m
3
/person/year)
Ministry of Environment
and Natural Resources
2011
28
Rate of days with high level of toxicated air
exceeding the accepted level (%)
Ministry of Environment
and Natural Resources
2011
29
Rate of urban areas, industrial and
processing zones and industrial clusters with
standardized processing of solid wastes and
waste water to meet relevant national
standards and technical requirements (%)
- Chairing: Ministry of
Construction

society and environment, which should be equally treated. These contents are bases for
developing a system of statistic index for sustainable development in the world and in
Vietnam as well. From this suggestion Chapter 1 introduces some available systems of
statistic index for sustainable development analyses in depth the current system of
statistic index for sustainable development of Vietnam. This is the latest system
introduced by the Government, with presence of some aggregate indicators to give
assessment of various aspects.
The later part of the Chapter analyzes the similarity and difference of Vietnam’s
system of statistic index for sustainable development and the system recommended by
the UN Council for sustainable development. Besides, the author points out some
limitations in the system to address in the coming time.
In the recommended system of statistic index the assessment will be
implemented on separated indicators, which reflect each and every dimension of
sustainable development. However, if stopping at that point, the thesis cannot come up
with an overall conclusion on the results of sustainable development in the country.
There should be an assessment on the process of sustainable development over time to
compare and withdraw experience for development. Right here is the gap in both
theory and practice calling for further research in this thesis.
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CHAPTER 2. DEVELOPING A METHOD FOR CALCULATION
OF AGGREGATE INDEX FOR ASSESSMENT
OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM
2.1. Overview of method for development of aggregate index ng quan nghiên cứu về
phương pháp xây dựng chỉ số tổng hợp
There are various methods developed to calculate the aggregate indes,
specifically:
First, to calculate the human development index (HDI), UNDP use the simple
formula of average multiple of the 3 component indicators:
HDI = I
/

sustainable development in Vietnam” within the framework of project VIE/01/021
implemented at the Ministry of Planning and Investment. In that study the weighted
arithmetic average method is used to calculate the aggregate index. However, the
suggestion given in this study just introduce a direction to calculate the index of
national sustainable development but not a specific method for calculation.
2.2.Suggestion on a method to calculate the aggregate indext for sustainable
development in Vietnam
2.2.1.Method to calculate individual indicators
2.2.1.1.Selection of a formular to calculate individual indicators
First, regarding positive indicators: the higher the values of these indicators, the
more sustainable the development. Using the method to calculate the aggregare index
introduced by the UN in HDI calculation, one of the following two formulas:
Formula 2.1:
I =
Real value − Minimum value
Maximum value − Minimum value
Formula 2.2:
I =
ln(Real value) − ln(Minimum value)
ln(Maximum value) − ln(Minimum value)
Second, regarding negative indicator: the higher the value of indicators, the less
sustainable the indicators and vice versa. The thesis will be adjusted toward positive
indicators. When the indicator value increases to nearly 1, the nation’s development is
more sustainable. In that the formula will be opposite.
Formula 2.3:
I = 1 −
Real value − Minimum value
Maximum value − Minimum value
Formula 2.4:
I = 1 −

− ln
(
central value
)
|
Thus, depending on its characteristics, each indicator will be calculated
according to a relevant specific formula.
2.2.1.2.Identify minimum and maximum values
Within the scope of this thesis the author gives out 2 alternatives for the
following reasons:
First, regarding the group of positive and negative indicators:
- Maximum value: If the indicators’ maximum limit possible can be identified,
it will also be used as maximum value. If it is impossible to identified the values or if
there is no instruction on sustainable limit of those values, the maximum values to be
taken will be the value of trend, i.e. the maximum value of the indicators during the
study period.
- Minimum value: Similar to maximum values, if the minimum limit of the
values can be identified, the miimum value will take. Other indicators can take the
value of trend as its minimum value.
Second, regarding the group of central-tendency indicators.
- Central value: If there is information about the optimum value of the indicator,
the central value will take that value. For the rest of indicators, the choice will be made
upon each indicator’s characteristics.
- Maximum value: the value of the biggest difference (either positive or
negative) from the central value in the time series.
2.2.2. Methods to calculate component indicators
2.2.2.1.Aritmethic or geometric average?
Both the averages take the common feature of general average. However, the
geometric average respects the equality than the arithmetic one. An indicator with high
value cannot make the overall index’s value rocket if the geometric average formula is

n
1i
i
II



According to the above formula, the aggregate index of sustainable
development is always valued between 0 – 1. Different values will show different
levels of sustainable development. From this finding, the author suggests a scale to
measure the development to identify the level of sustainable development in Vietnam
when the calculation results of the aggregate index is completed, as follows:
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0.0 - 0.2: develop unsustainably
0.2 - 0.4: develop fairly sustainably
0.4 - 0.6: develop relatively sustainably
0.6 - 0.8: develop quite sustainably
0.8 - 1.0: develop very sustainably
CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 2
From the available system of statistic index for sustainable development
Chapter 2 has reviewed various studies on aggregate index and recommended a
method to calculate the aggregate index of sustainable development in Vietnam. This
is also the main content of the thesis.
The indicators in the system of statistic index of sustainable development are
classified into 3 groups of positive, negative and internal indicators. The author
identify formulas to calculate individual indicators and their minimum and maximum
values in each group. From the individual indicators the author analyzes and selects
various formulas to calculate component indicators using the averages: arithmetic or
geometric averages, simple or weighted geometric averages. Then the author goes on
with identifying the weights in the formula for weighted averages.

component indicators in two cases: the formulas of simple arithmetic average and
weighted arithmetic average.
3.1.4. Calculation of aggregate index of sustainable development
Using the formula recommended in Chapter 2, the author calculates and obtains
the results of index of sustainable development with 3 different formulas: (1) direct
calculation from individual indicators; (2): calculation from component indicators
which are computed by the formula of simple geometric average; (3): calculation from
component indicators which are computed by the formula of weighted geometric
average.
The calculation results are shown in Table 3.1.
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Table 3.1. Aggregate index of sustainable development
of Vietnam in the period 2001 - 2010 by different methods of calculation
Unit: time
Year
Method
2001
\\2002
2003
2004
2005
(1)
0.295
0.344
0.370
0.434
0.494
(2)
0.414
0.453

0.523
0.460
0.435
0.565
3.1.4.Comments on the methods of calculating the aggregate index of sustainable
development
The three methods of calculation mentioned above show three different results.
The two following cases are observed:
- When the data of indicators were not sufficient, one indicator could not be
representative for the whole big group, so in this case the first formula (calculated
directly from individual indicators) better reflected the reality of sustainable
development in Vietnam for the past 10 years.
- When there were enough data of indicators, the second method of calculation,
which was to use indirect average through component indicators, would be more
suitable. The aggregate index of sustainable development also needs building based
odeveloping on the basis of representative levels for each field.
Thus, due to the fact that there were not enough data of the indicator system in
the period of 2001 - 2010, the study would select results from the first method of
calculation, which is to use simple geometric average of individual indicators as the
basis for the analysis of the current status of sustainable development in Vietnam.
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3.2. Analyzing trend of substainable development in Vietnam in the period 2001 –
2010
3.2.1. Choosing the method of analysis
Using the method of statistical tables and graphs, we will have an intuitive
overview on the trend of sustainable development of Vietnam for the past 10 years.
3.2.2. Trend of substainable development in Vietnam in the period of 2001 - 2010
Selec the method of calculating the index of substainable development basing
on individual indicators, using simple geometric average. Calculation results are
represented in Figure 3.1.

decline, being the lowest in the 10-year period with deficit of $10.79 billion, much
lower than the other years. The second reason was the consumer price index CPI or
inflation (CPI in 2008 was up to 123%).
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Figure 3.3. Changes in group of economic indicators 2008 - 2009
In contrast to 2008, in 2009 the government implemented stimulus packages
that made certain recovery of international economic relations as well as kept the
speed of increasing consumer price within one single digit (by using the solution
package of curbing inflation, tightening the monetary policy); however, this caused a
decrease in the contribution proportion of TFP among the indicators to the general
growth and the state budget deficit.
3.3. General assessment on the index of substainable development and some
recommendations
3.3.1. General assessement on the index of substainable development
From the results of experimental calculation of the indext of sustainable
development in Vietnam in the period of 2001 - 2010, the author comes back to
evaluate the suitability of the system of statistical indicators of sustainable
development as well as the formulas proposed in Chapter 2.
First, for the system of statistical indicators of sustainable development: The
number of indicators was quite large, making the process of calculating the overall
index become cumbersome; some indicators do not ensure the consistency of
calculating methods, data sources, and the reporting periods, which cause many
difficulties in data collection, affecting the accuracy of the calculated results; there was
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600

propose directions, policies, and goals of sustainable development for the next years to
the government. These development goals will be the basis to determine the actual
maximum and minimum values in the formula of calculating separate indicators as
proposed.
- For the statistical industry: It is necessary to carry out re-checking the
indicators in the system of statistical indicators of sustainable development so as to get
the best indicator system to assess the development process in Vietnam. The GSO also
needs to do research in order to provide specific methods of calculation, integrating the
aggregate index of sustainable development, helping the Council of National
Sustainable Development in assessing and analyzing the development situation of the
country.
- For the related ministries and ministerial-level agencies: it is important to
coordinate with related agencies, unifying the methodology of calculating some new
indicators, understanding and periodically reporting the statistical figures required so
as to summarize, process, and analyze data in time.
3.3.2.2. Solutions
- For the multi-level model of statistical reports:
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Figure 3.1. Multi-level model of statistical reports
- For the system of statistical reports:
Sustainable development is also a macro problem and should be accumulated in
in quantity in a long time. Therefore, the data of the statistical indicators of sustainable
development should be periodically aggregated every year by the responsible agencies.
CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER 3
The main content of Chapter 3 deals with the data collection of the indicators in
the system of statistical indicators of sustainable development, thereby the application
of the calculation process described in Chapter 2 to calculate the aggregate index of
sustainable development. With different formulas, the author comes up with many
different results for indicators of sustainable development. To be able to select
appropriate methods, the author used methods of statistical graphs and tables for

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development shows that the results of the development of Vietnam was not really
stable and sustainable as expected in the strategy of socio-economic development in
the period of 2001-2010. The economy developed unstably due to the influence from
the general scence of the world as well as of the related policies. Although people's
lives were improved, they were still quite low, only moderate.
In the last part of the chapter, the author returns to assess the indicator system
as well as the proposed formulas, basing on the calculation results and analysis of the
aggregate index of sustainable development in the period 2001-2010 in Vietnam.
Thereby, the author makes some recommendations and suggests solutions to perfect
the statistical work in developing a mechanism of collecting, summarizing, and
publishing the data of sustainable development in the future.
CONCLUSION
Sustainable development – the process of balanced and harmonious
development of all three factors of economy, society, and environment – is the final
goal of most countries in the world today. The “Strategy of Socio-economic
Development of Vietnam 2001 – 2020” has determined the development perspective
in this period as "Rapid development closely associates with substainable
development, sustainable development is the consistent goal in the strategy".
To assess the performance, the Government launched the system of statistical
indicators to monitor and evaluate sustainable development. Thereby, it is crucial to
have the aggregate index to assess the process of substainable development basing on
this indicator system. To contribute to the implemetation of that requirement, the thesis
has studied and solved some basic problems as follows:
- Generalize the concepts, the need for, and the content of sustainable
development. This is the rationale for studying and analyzing the system of statistical
indicators of sustainable development.
- Summarize some systems of statistical indicators of sustainable development
available in the world; generalize and analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the
system of statistical indicators of sustainable development in Vietnam. The thesis