TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TPHCM
KHOA TÀI CHÍNH DOANH NGHIỆP

TÁC ĐỘNG CỦA MC ĐỘ ĐỘC LP NGÂN HNG
TRUNG ƯƠNG ĐẾN VIỆC THỰC HIỆN CHNH
SÁCH TIN TỆ LẠM PHÁT MỤC TIÊU
Đề tài của Sami Alpanda và Adam Honig

TPHCM, Tháng 9 năm 2014
Nhóm thực hiện:

!
"#$
%&%%#
"'()*+
Nhận xét của GV: 2

A. MỤC TIÊU NGHIÊN CU:
,-./,0123'42-567894:;<9
-5=,01>29#'?@AB2?CD5+/?C02E2F/1G
'.?@,H#.';%'#/,01?@DI029J>5/
45DJK+L5',A,M##32M#=,'?K

'#STA#`jbc;
3

Nghiên cu s@ tp trung vào tác đ9ng cMa mc đ9 đ9c lp ngân hàng trung ng đn
vi+c thKc hi+n ch đ9 ti-n t+ l,m phát mCc tiêu cMa 44 n-n kinh t m.i và 22 n-n kinh t tiên
tin đ3c l4y tQ Ball (2010) giai đo,n năm 1980 đ#n năm 2006.Trên cs>đi sâu phân tích
đInh l3ng cMa các n-n kinh t đa ra các đánh giá v- tác đ9ng cMa mc đ9 đ9c lp ngân hàng
trung ng đn vi+c thKc hi+n ch đ9 ti-n t+ l,m phát mCc tiêu.Cui cùng là phân tích các
kênh ti-m năng mà qua đó IT Dnh h>ng đn hi+u su4t l,m phát.
D.  NỘI DUNG BI NGHIÊN CU
1. KHÁI NIÊM V CÁC YẾU TE CHỦ YẾU CỦA LẠM PHÁT MỤC TIÊU.
1&M#11DQ.0'L9AVD
M#5&5E,01C/V#'G`c51+/2I\#5&5E,01C
l`c1HVDM#5&5E,01Cl`cL2-5+H2
10AC5&5E,01C&l`c?'?1L3mV43M#+10
AC5&5E,01C?'.15&5E?1-+.2)H`T'.n
12'1/'oT'.-cl`c129M#+10AC5&5E,01C
215D\&M#-5l`c5DJ22FM#5&5E,01C
.1$?`AC$?1=#/$?5M'Dcl`c5+M#1
.&+001.E'+10AC5&5E,01CV
:$#l`c19A#51;fFA.2)H?@2-0-42-
H;
Khái niêm.
?5`j/j c2##E#K+,01C>1-
5.E2#H2E/1D2-02L3V43M#3
?1-+4H,01C9?V:$#Q5+M#9?
.T/#p;1D'X,01C93?1-+
`'T#H0'H?#THc2823?]AC&>1.&+02#>
9?KK#:40AB'1.=-5IR.ET/#p/
SU/#*#/%#f;

5&5E,01C;=V#H#.V,/2=`cy#
-?KO3,01C`V#'G290M#%)/
5

1+D/y#-+2##H2Icl`c5,01Cl
`c?1H-&M#%);
Tại sao lại là lạm phát mục tiêu (IT)? Lý do áp dụng IT? Lợi ích/bất lợi của IT?
#T?zTTA#{'T?*#7'`ja#c2-02L42-s-+,
?#'1%),K#:n+,0140C?1M#
,?#'=-..K#:,01C5&5E22,23C
2=;11D2?)0)-10M#,01/V#'G#YM#$'
+,'#5|V!E6?H'1;n+,01#'V29,2#?1.'
1#2',.2)H28230V>?KV29#'-?D3+/V>
J>40-J?4?D3-J;&R,01#'E,4
-2.',295;
'Y#05n#/-.&+01-5IR.
E10AC,01C95&5E?1-+M#;11D
'XhA'21.2##10AC[A'1.o05=5J'+?]
AC1T'A#\#51`Cn1C-+c/e'D
n+,01T'5|:,01&#9C2D=#?123;
?5`j/j c'X3M#5&5E?1-+,01C
V#'G`c'0U0%)0'15#,'.
0D.1$?129-5l`c5&5EH=',29
5&F0D=#+E2IL#-,01l`c&$I
R=sC%)T'2E/A'2=V,
1+D?@J;%LV43M#5&5E?1-+,01C
e23#/V#'G`c5&5E-+H15P5T/W0'9
C=JV4EM#-5#+5&.2CJ
>+l`c5&5E,01C'1+D5U2
,0145=5?'129Z?1Al`c5&5E[5&$0',Vy

kTATA[k#'#Tc230&V#'GIL,
E2I5\&LPl+01l290-&C)
7

9WImHVX2,E2I1Dl?K#H-D1
',29-+,01l001030h7)HAKAKV1',01l
V,M#?1-+X01+D?K+;%-H
2)H/2oV+IL,F'9?1-+0!30;
L#/LHH5&F0D2304D.51.VP2F
H2E?#5&5E,01C'';
?5`juc7T7UL5#,M#1.=-5H2E.
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H5U/`c12IH5U/`c29H40M#12I-+/
`c,"&#=#/`cAZVIEM#1.H.?KAQ,29
9M#AY';T'1D/1#=-5H2E.E0
'01LH22DVD'3?1-+.-,
01C,'#2315D\&;
_AT#S#TT/#5w;S'T/#5tTT`jc0)?K51V+L#
1.&+01.IR.E`#?/T/SU/[?#T/#*#
%#fc'+gVI1-D/12-5+210AC[`c5&5El
`c142-',292-?1-+l`c15#,EM#%)
l`c142-H2E;
• <&5E%3.1.&+0/1.IR.ER
..95&5EXO3',01C;<&5E
010hM#4D1.[2-712IE2I1D#HE2I-+CM
HM#%)2DVD'?K290-&CM#%)
`%ƒc;%1.IR.ER#H2E5&5E010hM#%)
A'VI0V>LCM#0M3')C)
?1M#0MIR?40AB.n+,01#'-V29
?'.C2-#[5&K+23;

',;
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C)?1M#0Ml290-&C#H290''-',29l'A!=
9

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J1?1M#2l1)3l3&40l9.2'
-?K290M#%);
• W?-45V#'GL2-5+5R1292&
M#,01C/2=?KH-D?1-+#5n140l29,H
D.1=#40l29"&#=#l29>]#,;
T'#T?zTTA#A[~5T6w'VT`j c=V#2-5+s2',29
,01C`[c/2=C,01C'1CM#
?1-+l5&=10`k?#A'#Tcl290-&CS`%)
M29'''+?]AC1&CSc;"#?12-5+
1H5123'JVD2.5&5E,01C=230
?#52##10AC[;12-5+HV#'G7)HAK1&2AK
V1',01/K-011V1'1'-?1-+'o
1V1'1'-,01/M+&#+D+H1
?112I5H5?K011IR10A,VX
2GVD+;&R5,1-5.E5&H+
2h>#HQ2F/L3Q+10AC,01C?#2=?KD
+&R2152-H5+,1-5&+0.
E10AC[;
^=Tp/‡VT/i##?`jjc-+K+,01C,
''V#;''V#VP2FK+,01C'J aa 010e
*2I095&5E0100!30.CE2I1D;i.5&5E
010H/%)290215CM#%)
E2I1D;T'2=/%)0D&VC,01OJ9F
23HF2+9V1'1'#•9#FOJ;%=/2K+

`L.2#'R5|1292gVIK,01Cc/L.28
=9?1,01CE2I/L.#HV1/L
.e#HL..VP2FK+F2)H/L.28K+L
.+2#K+;
%=L.K+,01CV#'G9= d.&+0
5.E;‰/#p/##A#/T/''V#/9Y#SU/fF*#/[?#T/
11

•/T'/%T„tT##A/fT/fF*#/%#f/)H#%#/CH"/1*#
_`fF*#)H#%#28#5y=H5j.HQVy?1-+
402GT''J aaac;
 %=#=a.&+05&K+,01C'
LJaV#'G"#,/f10/"/Š/%D/%#‡H/G"'%#/CHS€
30M'#<|;
Q2=/L.K+,01C2##L2?K51
V+'L2-5+HM#,01C/5',C/L2o
',29;
‹%^
NHỮNG NƯỚC THỰC HIỆN V KHÔNG THỰC HIỆN LẠM PHÁT MỤC TIÊU TIÊU
BIỂU
Những nước thực hiện lạm phát mục tiêu Những nước không thực hiện lạm phát
mục tiêu
Úc Vương Quốc Anh Đan Mạch
Brazil Mexico Pháp
Canada New Zealand Đức
Chile Peru Ý
Colombia Balan Nhật Bản
Cộng hòa Séc Nam Phi Na Uy
Phần Lan Tây Ban Nha Bồ Đào Nha
Israel Thụy Điển Mĩ

#Dh-+;,2=1+D1C5&2,23
%)j2bVPV9'+K?1-+91+
DA.V4529'/u)2=2-5+H4#:29.K
+,01C=+D;iH/?K&M#,01C0C9
-'?K+M#IR/JKH)M#)2?P0
701?10!30.C;
Vấn đề lạm phát dần dần được phân định, được hoàn thiện hơn kể từ lúc mới hình
thành đến khi được cải cách %-#40,01C,5&
K+2FH2M12-5+232-0>;iACT[?#T2-P.n1
2'12I'?LJa`+#H[?#TBYK+c;#H)
_VP2FK+,01C4).52,23?K290'?1;
F1.2-K+,01C.52,23?KV,#''
?1`V#'G+&5#1V1'1'-,01/AK2'1,01/VVD
?1-+c1+D2FH2M;%''V#/[?#T/T'/fT/%#f‚
B#&5#1AKV1'-,01;W=#pK+2$1HF
#HQ5VP2FT'2E?1H;•#2=/,01C23K
+'LJa2-W?1-+2#;"
#H.2,23?K4-12-5+3021.K+,01C
=+D;H/L2-5+H285&Y#:']#2F
LJa/51.K+,01C28'4E2=
23L&42I2=Q+:yL5+M#:Q
5+eH23M#L.K+?1,01C51;
Lạm phát được phân loại từ mức độ rất cao đến rất thấp trong những thời kỳ theo
đuổi lạm phát mục tiêu;9?#T'2E,01C5n+,01M#
:5&YAH23?KE2I:?]AC,01C9&C
27)HAK?K+/DW+,015|:/29n+,01
14

40E2I;iACL..E.5K+,01C=n+,
01V#2F b6ub†`T/[?#T/fTcL..EF2)H=n+,01

` cf`[mŽc•k`[k/~0T/z?#/ƒ//z[/^[/[[c
15

• i.AL+M#j•.'Y J` aa6 aaac
• [k,01V
• ~0T>]#AI
• z?#oA^{f
• ƒW1ADVJ
• CJ>-+
• z[SK290M#)#
• ^[C290M#)
• [[SK290M#1&CM#)#
i42-V#SKD>M#O)2.,01C
1. ".29,01V[k
• =D>215229,01C
• 1.10AC29,01C2-.2+D,017
9'?.?#5K+29,01C
• 1.K+29,01C?@=,01#'1.
5&K+',
2. >]#AI~0T
• 1.=3>]#AI#'302.,01C
• F1.&+0.5&0DL.K+,01C

3. oA^{f`z?#c
• =#+IV2.oA^{f
• H+H5&2,2V
4. n1ADVJ`ƒc
• <&=+215
5. CJ>-+`c
• =+215

#4JAY/=hD90F'2=-?K&2!#
*f;
Sự độc lập của NHTW và lạm phát mục tiêu củng cố qua lại lẫn nhau;<+
'LJ aa'4HX+>9L#?K290M#)
RO3'+40,01C;Œ9?#.540,
01C40L&C290'1)/
R30>%T„tT##AT;Œ1.51/_/&C2902##?#
57DH#,01C
%ƒW2,'2-S.9292902=\#5&2Yy
?K290''.0M/0D=H-KA'2-1&CS2
2o23C,010M'30;")M2-5+H/.2=
5&K+9?15'1I62=9?15&7T7U2
?K5M#S/0DK+9?15&I/5
)C)?1/GV!2P0')CH5&0DMHQG%ƒ
+)/0D?KACMHQG01&C3M#0M
.A)$Q1G51M#0M;%G,9?15'1
I‘z?#A'#T’/10K,01=GQ?15'1?@
D+D2-M#S;
%ƒ0D=gH-?P?5&T'2ECM#1V?5
51/-/&J+/'on12'1;iST'2E2GR
.1CH5&K+C,01E2I/'o=e
5&+D;iAC%ƒ2GRT'2ECn1/2L'n1E2I
17

>CV9%ƒ0D#+0IR/52=-=#'
'o40'22,,01C;i+#=9
'0H;'LJ aad6j/SM#%%%T'2E-C/
'2=E2In123':4;i-VD'LJHi+#282,
23C-n1/C,01285&2,23>C`J aad
2oC•†/Ka/j†lJ aaaCb6x†/K/ †lJj

%LJ aa/',Q.5M'D.E'#2', aa•6 aaa/-
5.=-:/V+>95.4.€?#
#.#`€28K?KVP#H'+>95.H&9.
18

4'LJ?##;%R=-/RA!28-V,/
&H283Q2=;1&H5.H28VP2F28&/1
A'#+0e.40-F2-H;1&+0.23,'#
VX+>-5DJ5A'#.'#F;1R5|?#
#?K5>2FM#V!E&+/=V2E.'YbJ;
i+AH#5y10B0C/LV!EyBY7DH#;4D
2-H'LJ?##LJ-5014'
I?]€;c2#23-5.#);KH5-#?10
X,01C9#235/V>>-#K
+,01C/5&=$?V43.'D>2+2,23
,0140E2I;%L#K+,01CL-5
>/y0C94-'L$?:A'DM#95M
'D)“J aa•613.L.5&K+,01C
5&VID>V>L$?H;'?L.K+,01C
51‰/T/[?#T/%T„tT##A280D1ILV43-530
.1$?M#n1,28n12'1D215;:AKV1'+H
91&/VX1,517H?141AB2,01;
'#2', aaa6j$?1AF9R30#2.L.0
5gAFK+,01C/'2==2-021.=#p/9
Y#SU#*#;i+#J215,)H#,016&#1J3
Dn12'1‚'CM#L.H2#232o',
21V1'29;H=9VX+#HQL.K+,01C
'4HXL129M#$?AF',01VD5&215`,
01JQ#0DW,Rc
Lạm phát mục tiêu đã làm giảm tỷ lệ đánh đổi và biến động sàn lượng tại các nước thực

28?]AC?1DhEF/?'A'n+4+0=#+3-V-
L.n+,01/J>5#'2)H#,01;*,01
110DD2Dn+4+0;
What Does Sacrifice Ratio Mean?
_T''#'#T#?T?T'??#??'#TA„?'„A'„T'''0'
20

#Tk#'#HTA?;T#'?##TAVH#5T'?'k'?0'A'#A
AAVHT0TT#T#Tk#'/#A?'TT?T'??'k'00T †
#Tk#'
`n+212E9W?52'R10#D?D352
#H2E7.,01;n+H23VX14H0?D74VI4#'
0FJ#H2E',01/?M#=VI'?K41M#?D3
 †#H2E',01c
Lạm phát mục tiêu có lẽ đã giải quyết tốt hơn những cú sốc lạm phát;T'_TA#
^''A#` aadc&T#5T9?K;` aaac/,01C5&D,
015|:7#=/WAFAFT'R#;:4HX,015U'A
28D,>L.K+,01C'LJ aa/'4HX
L.K+,01C5|:-,,01/A'2='
:5&\--D>o-M#,01'15
Chính sách tiền tệ khi thực hiện lạm phát mục tiêu phải linh hoạt vì nó phải kịp phản
ứng và điều chỉnh cho phù hợp với những cú sốc lạm phát nhất thời và không làm ảnh
hưởng đến kết quả trung hạn của mục tiêu. Những nước thực hiện lạm phát mục tiêu
5&0DL.2=#Y”R5U,01”`9CQA'</ aaxc
0D5I0R.L$?KK/:T'2ECD,
01AFAF/=0D.L$?2F#,R;XM#TT
•#`jc'4H?KV29M#?D32F#=9#YK'4D
1',2951#M#L.K+,01C
',/2DR)y/‘"9+5yC,01230U0V#'
20D,1$?-E#HEF•’/‘C,019'?C

j W?1DA.j†mJc;
Hiện tượng thay thế tiền tệ
1.5&0D5&o0L42--5=#/
-+/=?K51V+.-29:M#42->1#IR
.E;SKH5UM#5=#/-+'1#IR
.E>4AZVIE5=,01#''o57DH#195M'D
-+l>H5&V.231IKM#2G-1#H;{'2=/1
#IR.E0D2o.21',2=+RA)=
H?#L',+/Q2=AB2+3#H-+;+3#H-+
01?AR5&WA'AZV,01287DH#'15/YA'9
K92G-2&#€23?]AC2I'1'1#'
AI;KH28V9#-+0D'0U01),
`%c-]',+;T'2=/5=?KHAI299Q9+?#',+/
5&N?@,'#?K'D',2.)2D)WF#H2E
2G-2I1M#15'D-]&;YR3051$-#2#
',+/4=AB2?K'D',2.);
Hiện tượng rút vốn bất ngờ (có thể dùng để giải thích cho thuật ngữ cú sốc đầu ra)
942-=129,>1#IR.E/2=+3$V4
R/2)HR305G').?3.`=\#299DH
22

,#'.cl'2=0F.?DH#5&AKV1'.23;+3
HFW7DH#2.1#IR.E/15'1/
M#1#HRH/L#eWF2)H42-H.232##
K+91=+;XV#2F'4HX>1#I
R.E/+3$V4R=-5DJ7DH#;"-H>s
?#95M'D>%#J aadC7J2#M#&H•'1&H
51IR0ƒ#;"-HAB2L0y2'1'X/9
VA+9/+3$V4R+DM#LHV'1292
1#IR.E;+3H=01?Q5M'D>9#

3. Nội dung đề tài của Sami Alpanda và Adam Honig.
12)H'4H0F2&11D2-12G+10AC
?1-+,01C4'1-5/2oV+1-5.
E.L29&51#;11D282##12-5+:=
2-5+HF0D210.52##10AC[;HL#11D#=
?K4''-12-5+F23210.510AC?1,01
C;%T'h5M#0F2&11D210AC&
?1,01CF0D=12-5+F12-5+H ,
F5€2DVD'2Ml#H?5yT+2M,2I2K1$?l
12-5+-45l12-5+-?15=#-&.Ž9
2-5+H2F'=12-5+H11D2)H?K
290M#%ƒ?'.0M/290'+712I,001C1&C
?1-+/290-&C)/+)
290#''K?1-+?1[&
9'-1D=#2?K290M#)=
92-5+H'&M#[`?5/jljul•TTTT#/ aaa/
zTA#–5T6w'VT/j c;iAC[=5&&'+2,23,01
401)=VI10KV>1I#n+4+0
40'o01-2V!2P0)C.;KH/[40=
ChX12-5+H515&Y;$V#'G,01C
CM#?1-+/?KPoM#?KI`?KP1
.,'M#0Mc/5DJ,?K2&#=#/H-D
?1-+=+D/?KV,/?KI1+M#%ƒ`#*#7'/
Jj•/zTA#–5T6w'VT/j c
j
;'R30H/[=?@+D'
1&R[40;$&:=”+2-5+H;”
ŽH9?&M#9?1D51,=Lh51
-:'X29290M#%ƒ40&M#[#'2oV+
=.=-5.E;

H'+2,231C,01/[=#-5n.
D)C)?1'1.=[40/`[z/jxc;[e==+
D'+,?K2&#=#/JR+KM#?1-+5DJ
39#20V#0X[12-5+H282-051#:'?K
&M#V45|3?1-+'5&-M9'oD>[/A'2=?KP
o  M#L  2-  5+  H5&    D  >  2  + 10  AC  [`##TT#J  jj/[z/J
jx/#/jvc;
25