United States
Air and Space Power
in the 21st Century
Strategic Appraisal
Edited by Zalmay Khalilzad, Jeremy Shapiro
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
Project AIR FORCE
R
The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air
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While the work was carried out under the auspices of the Strategy
and Doctrine program of RAND’s Project AIR FORCE, which is spon-
sored by the U.S. Air Force, this volume draws on the expertise of
researchers from across RAND in a variety of related disciplines. The
primary audience of this work consists of Air Force leaders and plan-
ners, but it should be of interest to others concerned about national
security issues.
The Strategic Appraisal series is intended to review, for a broad audi-
ence, issues bearing on national security and defense planning.
Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare
analyzed the effects of new information technologies on military
iv Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
operations. Strategic Appraisal 1997: Strategy and Defense Planning
for the 21st Century dealt with the challenges the U.S. military faces
in meeting the changing demands made upon it in a changing world.
Strategic Appraisal 1996 assessed challenges to U.S. interests around
the world, focusing on key nations and regions.
The views expressed here are those of the authors. They do not nec-
essarily reflect those of RAND or its clients. The research described
here was conducted before the September 11, 2001, attacks on the
United States and the subsequent U.S. campaign against Al Qaeda
and other terrorist groups.
PROJECT AIR FORCE
Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally
funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and
analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of
policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat
readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces.
Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force
Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource

The Maturation of U.S. Aerospace Power: Capabilities
of Today’s Forces 35
Defeating Enemy Air Attacks 35
Destroying Fixed Targets 35
Destroying Mechanized Ground Forces 37
Information and Its Uses 38
Survivability 39
Implications for U.S. Joint Operations 41
Challenges for the USAF 42
Modernization and Recapitalization 43
Human Capital 44
Conclusion: Creating Options 46
References 46
Chapter Three
THE FUTURE OF U.S. COERCIVE AIRPOWER
Daniel L. Byman, Matthew C. Waxman, and Jeremy
Shapiro 51
The American Way of Coercion 54
A Preference for Multilateralism 55
An Intolerance for Casualties 55
Aversion to Civilian Suffering 56
A Preference for and a Belief in Technological
Solutions 57
A Commitment to International Norms 57
Summary 58
Adversary Countercoercive Strategies: A Taxonomy 58
Create Innocent Suffering 60
Shatter Alliances 63
Create Counteralliances 65
Create Actual or Prospective U.S. or Allied

Force Structure Requirements for Ongoing
Deployments and SSCs 135
Force Structure Implications of SSCs 139
Summary 139
References 141
Chapter Five
SPACE CHALLENGES
Bob Preston and John Baker 143
Current Space Activities 143
The Civil Space Sector 144
The Commercial Space Sector 147
The National Security Space Sector 154
World Players 160
Motivations for Change 162
viii Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
Bureaucratic and Technological Forcing Functions 162
Threat-Driven Considerations 165
Future Choices 171
Policy 171
Enterprise 174
Organization 175
Ways Ahead 177
References 178
Chapter Six
U.S. MILITARY OPPORTUNITIES: INFORMATION-
WARFARE CONCEPTS OF OPERATION
Brian Nichiporuk 187
Introduction 187
What Do We Mean by “Information Warfare”? 188
The Importance of Offensive Information Warfare 189

Counterforce 244
Special Targets 245
Critical Military Situations 246
A Spectrum of Nuclear Options 246
Abolition 247
Aggressive Reductions and “Dealerting” 249
“Business as Usual, Only Smaller” 254
A More-Aggressive Nuclear Posture 255
Nuclear Emphasis 256
Issues Affecting U.S. Choices of a Future Nuclear
Strategy 257
Political Sustainability 257
Maintaining a Robust Nuclear Deterrent 257
Preparing for Operational Use of Nuclear Weapons 258
Characteristics of Nuclear Weapon Systems 261
Exploiting Asymmetries 262
Nuclear Proliferation 263
Is “Withering Away” of U.S. Nuclear Capability
Inevitable? 264
So, Where Do We Go from Here? 266
Bibliography 274
Chapter Eight
COUNTERING WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
AND BALLISTIC MISSILES
Richard F. Mesic 283
WMD Characteristics and Scenarios 284
Background 286
Characteristics of WMD Affecting Their Use 290
WMD Scenarios 295
Implications of These WMD Scenarios 302

Expand Contacts with Potential Partners 371
Adjust the Force Mix 371
Explore New Options 372
Summary of Recommendations 373
Concluding Remarks 373
References 374
Chaper Ten
A VISION FOR AN EVOLVING AGILE COMBAT SUPPORT
SYSTEM
Robert Tripp and C. Robert Roll, Jr 377
ACS Decisions and Their “Trade Space” 378
An Analytic Framework for Strategic ACS Planning 381
Key Findings from ACS Modeling Research 383
Overview of a Global ACS System 389
Contents xi
Strategic and Long-Term Planning for the ACS System 392
References 393
Chapter Eleven
STRATEGIC SOURCING IN THE AIR FORCE
Frank Camm 397
Strategic Sourcing and Supply-Chain Alignment 400
Why Is the Air Force Interested in Outsourcing? 405
Policy Alternatives Relevant to an Air Force Strategic
Sourcing Program 408
Outsourcing 408
Privatization 409
Gain Sharing 410
Innovative Contracting 411
Reengineering 412
Summary 412

Charge? 471
Managing Readiness: Requirements, Resources, and
Processes 474
Conclusion: There Is No Paradox 478
References 481
xiii
FIGURES
2.1. Attacking Fixed Targets: Improved Accuracy Has
Yielded Major Increases in Effectiveness 36
2.2. Comparative Lethality of Air-Delivered Weapons
Against Moving Armored Columns 38
2.3. Comparison of Average Loss Rates of USAF
Aircraft 40
4.1. Theater Conflict Scenarios Examined 97
4.2. Preferred Force Mix Options: Currently Planned
JASSM Buy 107
4.3. Preferred Force Mix Options: 9,600 JASSM Buy 108
4.4. Fighter Versus Bomber Trades in Stressing
Scenarios: China Versus Korea, Current JASSM
Buy 111
4.5. Fighter Versus Bomber Trades in Stressing
Scenarios: China Versus Korea, 9,600 JASSMs 112
4.6. Fighter Force Mix Preferences: No Developmental
Weapons 114
4.7. Fighter Force Mix Preferences: With
Developmental Weapons 116
4.8. Force Mix Recommendations 118
4.9. Impact of Cost Growth on Preferences for F-22X
or -E 121
4.10. Impact of JSF Cost Growth on JSF Versus F-22

TMD CONOPs 321
8.7. The Effects of Small Improvements in Counterforce
Capabilities 322
8.8. The Strong Effect of Moving Vehicle Clutter on
Overall TMD Effectiveness 323
8.9. The Sensitivity of ABL Performance Salvo Handling
and Lethality 325
8.10. Air Force Capabilities for Shaping the Potential
TMD Trajectory 326
9.1. Notional Missile Threat Rings 357
9.2. Coverage Available from Five FSLs 368
9.3. Impact of Adding Aircrew and Tankers on Sorties
and Fuel Use 370
10.1. General Decision Trade Space by Location 380
10.2. Employment-Driven Analytical Framework 382
10.3. CONUS to SWA Resupply Times and Support
Breakpoint Solutions 386
10.4. Potential Global ACS Network 390
Figures xv
11.1. Players Relevant to an Integrated Air Force Supply
Chain That Includes Contractors 402
11.2. Process Steps for Choosing Competitive Sourcing
Candidates, Running Competitions, and Managing
Relationships with the Winners 413
12.1. Unit-Level Readiness Related Taskings and
Outputs 447
xvii
TABLES
4.1. Variations in Fighter and Bomber Force Mixes 99
4.2. 2020 Force Mix Composition 100

verance in shepherding the book to publication. Thanks are also due
to C. Richard Neu and Edward R. Harshberger for their oversight of
the review process and to Natalie Crawford for her support of the
Strategic Appraisal series. We would also like to recognize Maj Gen
John Barry, USAF, Maj Laura Olsen, USAF, and Todd Sample for their
assistance and for sponsoring and organizing the Strategic Appraisal
Seminar Series for the USAF staff. Finally, our greatest debt is owed
to Luetta Pope, without whose administrative assistance we would
not have found our offices much less have cleared the various obsta-
cles to publication.
xxi
ABBREVIATIONS
AADC area air defense commander
ABI airborne interceptor
ABL airborne laser
ABM antiballistic missile
A/C aircraft
ACS Agile Combat Support
AEF aerospace expeditionary force
AEW Aerospace Expeditionary Wing
AFPAM Air Force pamphlet
AF/XO Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff, Air and Space
Operations
AF/XOOA Air Force Readiness Center
AF/XPM Headquarters Air Force Directorate of Manpower
and Organization
AIDS acquired immune deficiency syndrome
AMC Air Mobility Command
AMX-C Air Mobility Express–Commercial
AMX-M Air Mobility Express–Military

CNN Cable News Network
COMSTAC Commercial Space Transportation Advisory
Committee
CONOP concept of operation
CONUS continental United States
Abbreviations xxiii
CRMAF Commission on Roles and Missions of the Armed
Forces
CSL CONUS support location
DMZ demilitarized zone
DOC U.S. Department of Commerce
DoD U.S. Department of Defense
DOT U.S. Department of Transportation
DRID Defense Reform Initiative Directive
DSP Defense Support Program (satellites)
DSUP Defense System Upgrade Program
EAF Expeditionary Aerospace Force
EELV Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle
ELN Army of National Liberation
ESA electronically steerable antenna
EU European Union
EW electronic warfare
FAA Federal Aviation Administration
FARC Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
FEBA Forward Edge of the Battle Area
FIA Future Imagery Architecture
FLIR forward-looking infrared
FMSE Fuel Mobility Support Equipment
FOL forward operating location
FOR follow-on operating requirement

JSTARS Joint Strategic Tracking and Radar System
Abbreviations xxv
JTIDS Joint Tactical Information Distribution System
LANTIRN Low Altitude Navigation and Targeting Infrared for
Night
LEO low earth orbit
LIDAR light detection and ranging
LOCASS Low-Cost Autonomous Strike System
LODIS Low-Cost Dispenser
LOG C
2
Logistics Command and Control
LPP launch predition point
MAC Military Airlift Command (predecessor to today’s
Air Mobility Command)
MAJCOM major command
MASINT measurement and signature intelligence
MEO most efficient organization
MICAP mission capable
MIRV multiple independently targeted reentry vehicle
MOB main operating base
MOE measure of effectiveness
MOPP mission-oriented protective posture
MTI moving target indicator
MTID moving target identification
MTW major theater war
NAD Navy Area Defense
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NBC nuclear, biological, or chemical

S&T science and technology
SAF/AQC Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Acquisition)
SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks
SAM surface-to-air missile
SAR synthetic aperture radar
SBIRS-High Space-Based Infrared System–High
SDB small-diameter bomb
SDIO Strategic Defense Initiative Office
SEAD suppression of enemy air defenses
SFW sensor-fused weapon
SIGINT signals intelligence
SIOP Single Integrated Operational Plan
SLBMs submarine-launched ballistic missiles
SOF special operations forces
SORTS Status of Resources and Training System
SPECTRE spectroscopic excitation and classification of trace
effluents
SSBN nuclear submarine
SSC smaller-scale contingency or conflict
SSM small smart munition
START Simplified Tool for Assessment of Regional Threats
(RAND theater-level campaign model)
START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
STRATCOM U.S. Strategic Command
SWA Southwest Asia
TBM theater ballistic missile
TDY temporary duty
xxviii Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century
TEL transporter-erector-launcher
THAAD Theater High-Altitude Area Defense