INTRODUCTION
1. Rationale groups of countries:
Since the end of the Cold war, the main concern of countries has been to
establish a new world order, in which powerful countries play a role as “main actors”
in the international politic stage. Among the powerful countries, America has an
ambition to monopolize the world while the other countries such as Russia, China or
group Countries such as West Europe want to multi-polarize. This conflict in the
strategic target had led to the fierce competition among powerful countries.
Although the cold war has ended together with the effects of the confrontation
between the two poplars, the establishing and developing the relationship between
Russia and China made America worried. Therefore, America considered the
dominating China and Russia as an important content of their foreign policy on the
path of monopolizing the world. However, this calculation of America had been the
important force boosting China and Russia to enhance their strategic relations.
Russia – China relationship after the cold war has played an important role in forming
the new world order. This is the relation of two powerful countries, which affects directly the
stability in Asia in particular and the world in general, including Vietnam. Therefore, “how
has the Russia – China strategic relationship been formed and developed? And whether will
they confirm their position – the main actors in the international politic stage?” has been the
question attracting many researchers in the world.
For Vietnam, the changes in the history of Russia – China relations has ever affected
deeply Vietnamese Revolution. At present, both Russia and China are important partners of
Vietnam, therefore, studying about the current Russia – China relationship has been
essential to Vietnamese researchers due to its deeply practical meaning.
With the above meanings, the author has decided to choose “Russia Federation –
People's Republic of China relations (1992 - 2008)” as the thesis’s topic with the aim
of giving contribution into solving problems which researchers care about.
2. The history of studying the topic
The development of Russia – China relations in recent years has attracted many
researchers, strategic research organizations in the world.
Study of foreign scholars
Specifically, Russia gave precious “gifts” of military and military technology while
Russia is “sunk into the world of gold and dollars” from selling oil to China.
Therefore, Russia – China alliance has the same characteristics as the Soviet – China
alliance founded in the 50s of the XX century. On the other hand, the others say that
state China – Russia alliance is established mainly on the basic of the
acknowledgement about benefits and threats from the US. They did not highly
appreciate the future of Russia – China relationship. It means that the anti-American
orientation of this alliance is difficult to be carried out.
In general, American and European scholars quite doubted the relation rather
than believed its development. Even when evaluating the future of Russia – China
relation, most researchers felt pessimistic. Therefore, many researchers and experts in
many countries have studied and wrote many works about this problem, however, the
viewpoints are very different, and even there is a total conflict in evaluation opinions.
In Vietnam
In the current context of the globalization, Vietnamese researchers have paid special
attention to the relations of large countries in general, and Russia – China relations in particular.
Institute for European Studies has had many research thesis about Russia such
as “Russian Federation and Eastern Europe before the XXI century” (March, 1994);
The summary record of science conference “Russia Federation in Asia – Pacific region
in the post-cold war” (October, 1995) and writings about Russia – China relations in
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areas of economy, politics on Magazine of Institute for European Studies, etc. All
researches confirmed that the “strategic partnership” of Russia and China has been
made great effects on the current international environment.
Center for Chinese Studies has held many conferences on China’s development
such as “People's Republic of China – 55 years of building and developing” (2004);
“China – 25 years of open-door reform” (2003). These works not only analyze the
reforming and economic, politic, social achievements of China, but also analyze,
evaluate Chinese foreign policies of the third and forth leader generations as well as
the relations of China with large countries including Russia.
trade and energy cooperation, and security – military cooperation.
Evaluating the effects of Russia – China relations: This relation has affected all
continents (Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America) at different levels, and affects the
international relationship, however, the thesis just emphasizes on the influences of the
relations on the two countries, on Asia and the movement of the new world order.
3
In terms of time, the thesis studies the relations in the period of 1992 – 2008. For
Russia, 1992 was the milestone remarking the development of Russia Federation after the
collapse of Soviet Union and 2008 was ending year of V.Putin’s term. To China, the 6
th
National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1992 was a new turning-point in
development of People’s Republic of China, especially; it remarked the adjustment in their
foreign policy (from “peaceful independence” policy to policy of “relations with large
countries”). The year of 2008 was evaluated the important time when Chinese new policy
got basic achievements, building foundation to launch new adjustments in foreign policy at
the 7
th
National Congress of the Communist
To understand more deeply and systematically about Russia – China relations, the
thesis will mention some events before 1992 and after 2008.
5. Aims and objectives of the study
* Aims of the study:
After 1991, both Russia and China have an ambition to boost the relationship
between the two countries to the “strategic partnership”. However, this ambition also
goes together with the fiercer and fierce competition, which has made challenges to the
development of the relations between them. So, what are the causes of this reality?
What are the effects of the Russia – China relations (1992 - 2008) on the region and
the world? Solving those problems is the final purposes of this thesis.
* Objectives of the study:
- The thesis studies factors affecting the Russia – China relations (1992 - 2008)
The thesis is studied based on the viewpoint of Vietnamese Communist Party on foreign
policy and international relationship, taking it as the methodology to carry out this topic.
The historical and logical methods are the basic ones to present, analyze and
explain the problems in the thesis.
The method of international studies also plays an important role in this thesis. The
events, historical changes of the relationship between two countries are always analyzed
and evaluated on the basic of the specific historical contexts, and international situation.
In addition, the methods of statistic, synthesizing, analyzing, comparison, collating,
and the method of forecasting are also used to solve the problems in this thesis.
8. The expected contributions of the study:
- On the basis of generalizing the whole history of Soviet – China relations
before 1991, the thesis has re-drawn the picture of the process of establishing,
developing of Russia – China relations in areas of politics – diplomacy, and economy
– trade, and security – military from 1992 to 2008.
- Having studied the relationship between Russia and China in the international
context and the situation of two countries, the thesis has shown influences of this
relationship on the region and the world, initially gave out the evaluations on the
movement of Russia – China relations in the coming time.
- The thesis will be a reference material for researching, teaching the
international relations, the history of China and Russia in modern time, as well as for
Vietnamese foreign affairs.
9. Organisation of the study
Apart from the introduction, conclusion, references, and appendix, the thesis
consists of 3 chapters:
Chapter 1: The overview about Soviet – China relations from 1949 to 1991 and the
factors affecting Russian Federation – People's Republic of China relations (1992 - 2008)
Chapter 2: The development and main achievements of Russia Federation –
People's Republic of China (1992 - 2008)
Chapter 3: Comments on Russian Federation – People's Republic of China
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The conflict between the biggest socialist countries at this time was the gold
opportunity for the U.S to pull China as an alliance to fight against Soviet. And China
quickly ran toward the U.S. In fact, both the U.S and China wanted to take advantage
of each other to get their own targets. Consequently, Sino – Soviet relations was not
only in tense situation but also the enemy relations for 1970s of the XX century.
The Sino – Soviet conflict in 1970s created threats to the regional peace and
security. This conflict made Asia – Pacific not peaceful as its name any longer, even it
was facing storms and “tsunami”.
Sino – Soviet conflict at this time enhanced the Cold War between the two poles
between Soviet and America within Asia, affecting negatively the regional security.
1.1.3. The process of normalizing Sino – Soviet relations (1980 - 1991)
Coming to 1980s of the XX century, the economic crisis forced Soviet to adjust
their foreign policy toward reduction in arms race, confrontation with America and
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moving towards normalizing the relationship with China. To China, the move
“America alliance for anti-Soviet” failed. From that fact, China, once again must
adjusted their foreign policy. Both Soviet and China came back to each other.
On August 5, 1982, the fist negotiation round between two countries about the
relationship normalization was taken place. However, for the first years of the 80s of
the XX century, Sino – Soviet relations just stopped at the level of “ice melting signal”
– not total normalization due to existing problems.
In the end of the 1980s, when China promoted the door-open reforming, the
demand of a peaceful environment was more and more necessary than ever. At this
time, Soviet stepped into the reform period and continued to adjust the foreign policy
on the basic of “the new politic thought”, moving toward stopping the confrontation
and respecting the friendly cooperative relations with all countries in the world,
especially normalizing the relationship with China.
With both advantageous subjective and objective conditions, the Sino – Soviet
confrontation reduced quickly and the relationship between two countries came to the
period of ice-melting. The year of 1989 was the important milestone for a new period
model. Despite the existing conflicts, they always promoted the cooperation
development.
When all countries are forced to enhance their cooperation to develop and
powerful countries have to form allies for national benefits, Russia – China was also
established as a result.
1.2.2. The effects of American factor on Russia – China relations
After the cold war, America became the only superpower country, which had
created opportunities for them to monopolize the world. To get their target of forming
a monopole world, America must keep their exceeding advantage in power and
maintain the position of controlling the world by all means. Therefore, for last two
dedicates, America have given the top priority to control Russia and China.
* For Russia, America took advantages of the weakness of Russia after the
collapse of Soviet to enhance their control over Russia with the aim of eliminating the
military strength and preventing the recovery of Russia. This forced Russia to face
threats from many directions: the west was strength of NATO, the east was the conflict
with Japan about Curin Island, and the strength of US – Japan alliance, the south was
Kavkaz and the unstable Mid-Asia.
*For China, the US’s conspiracy of controlling China was always clear and
showed strongly because after the Cold War, China not only developed more and more
quickly but also they still remained their socialist-oriented development.
Both Russia and China were under the direct threats from America, therefore,
certainly, they had a common condition to ally in order to fight against America and
protect themselves. In contrast with the closer relationship between Russia and China,
America enhanced their harsh measures, which threatened more Russia – China
relations. It was the ambition of the US to control Russia and China that made the
relationship between China and Russia closer, creating a fierce and interesting chess
with the decisive role to the new world order.
1.2.3. The position of Russia Federation and the demand of relations with China
After the collapse of Soviet, the economic difficulties made Russian position in
the world reduced. However, in the XXI century, the recovery and developmnet of
relations with large countries and neighbors to get three targets of strength, property,
and the international position.
Among powerful countries, China gave a special priority to the relationship
with Russia as Russia is not only a powerful country but also a neighbor. More
importantly, Russia was the only country providing weapons and ensuring military
strength for China when China was isolated. The abundant energy source of Russia
was more and more important to Chinese development. Especially, both Russia and
China were facing challenges causing by the US; therefore, the relationship with
Russia would help China to create the counterbalance with America to serve their
internal and external benefits.
Therefore, since the Cold War ended, in the context of “one superpower and
many powerful countries”, America strengthened their control over Russia and China.
As a consequence, Russia and China need the support of each other to affirm their
position in the world. This was the foundation for Russia – China relations, promoting
The proximity of geography and the long relation history were the important
foundation for Russia – China after 1991. Further more; with the new ideology of the
international relations that gave the top priority to the national benefits, both Russia
and China needed a peaceful environment for developing. Those factors had made
encouragements promoting both of the countries closer. Apart from the advantages of
the international condition, Russia and China both had the same strategic benefits and
the same competitor. Therefore, it can be said that with objective and subjective
advantages, Russia and China met each other in the strategic ideology as well as
action purposes.
Chapter 2
THE DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ACHIEVEMENTS OF RUSSIAN
FEDERATION – PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA RELATIONS (1992 - 2008)
2.1. THE POLITICAL – DIPLOMACY RELATIONS
2.1.1. The forming and improvement of Russia – China relations (1992 - 2000)
2.1.1.1. The period of 1992 - 1995
From 1992 to 1993, the political – diplomacy relations between Russia and
against military actions of NATO in Kosovo and criticized the failure of United
Nations as well as America’s using “breaking human rights” as a means to enhance
their political strength.
Since 2000, two countries have focused on identifying the orientations for the
relationship development oriented toward good neighbor relations on the basic of
strategic cooperation. In addition, in the “Anti-missile announcement”, Russia and
China expressed worry about the U.S’ plan of building missile defense system. On that
basic, two countries opposed the US’ plan of building national missile defense system.
Therefore, the strength and role of Russia – China relations are started to be affirmed
in the world.
The year of 1996 was a positive turning point in the development of the
relations. Developing from constructive partnership to strategic one opened a new
page for Russia – China relations. However, the strategic relations in this time were
just the initial foundation.
2.1.2. The development of political – diplomacy relations between Russia –
China (2001 - 2008)
2.1.2.1. The period of 2001 – 2005
The new milestone in the development of Russia – China relations was the Treaty
of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation between People's Republic of China
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and the Russian Federation signed July 16, 2001. This event give the signal of the
establishing a strategic relationship which could affect the future of Europe – Asia.
The launching the Treaty 2001 in the period of 2001 – 2005 was greatly
meaningful to improvement and development of Russia – China relations. The politic
– diplomacy efforts of the two countries played an important role in ensuring the
stability and security in Asia – Pacific. In 2005, Russia and China signed the common
statement announcement on “The world order in the XXI century”, which stated the
strength of this relation which was more and more enhanced in the world.
By 2005, the “equity, confidence, and strategic cooperation” in the Treaty
2001 became the orientation of actions and development of Russia – China relations.
signed the Agreement on the national border regulations between Russia Federation
and People Republic of China, finishing the border identification between two
countries and giving out specific, clear rules on actions at border areas.
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On July 21, 2008, Russia signed the agreement to return two above areas to
China. Then, on October 14, 2008, Russia officially returned Tarabarov and a half of
Bolshoi Ussuriskii Island to China. Therefore, the year of 2008 was considered the
time milestone of completing Russia – China border identifying, ending the conflict
for 40 years and opening a new way for development of the two countries’ relation.
2.2. THE MILITARY – SECURITY COOPERATION
2.2.1. Russia – China military cooperation
After the collapse of Soviet, Russia Federation inherited all military strength of
Soviet, therefore Russia was still a powerful country in military. At that time, the
demand of importing weapon of China was increasing; therefore, the military
relationship with Russia was important to China.
From 1992 to 2002, Russia supplied 91% of weapons to China on average. In
early years of the XXI century, this number was 94 – 97%. From 1992 to 2007, China
was the important weapon customers of Russia with a large volume of fighting flights
and modern submarine. From 1995 – 1997, weapon exporting of Russia reached $58.4
billion, in which exporting to China made up for $28 billion. In 2008, two countries
continued to carry out military technology projects on manufacturing military weapons.
And now, China has owned the largest numbers of Sukhoi flights. Russia – China military
cooperation helped Chinese military be modernized quickly in the late 90s.
Since 2003 so far, two countries often holds common military exercises under
many levels and in different places every two years with the typical ones in 2005 and
2007. Through these exercises, Russia – China relations in areas of military and
security keeps being closer.
The promotion of military relationship and technical transference of Russia to
China in recent years has brought economic, political benefits to China, and helped
China modernize their army, promoting Russia – China relations. More importantly, it
The existing conflicts in the security environment around Russia and China were
just like “undercurrent” but they were very fierce. Controling those undercurrents and
traditional security were the most important results of Russia – China security relationship.
2.2.2.2. Russia – China non-traditional security cooperation
The emerging problem in the non-traditional security to Russia and China in
particular and to the region and the world in general in the past years has been the
threat of terrorism and the environmetal security. Therefore, in the early years of the
new millenium, the security cooperation in this field became the essential and vital
factor to Russia and China.
Firstly, Russia – China security cooperation to fight agaisnt terrorism was
enhanced in the context that both Russia and China had a common worry about
terrorism, secessionism, and extreme. Two countries not only developed the bilaterial
security cooperation but also focused on connecting with Mid-Asian countries to
control the risk of loosing the non-traditional security through Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO).
Secondly, Russia – China relations on the environmental security in the past
years was the main content appriciated by two countries. The focus of this cooperation
between Russia and China was to protect the water resource. China – Russia
Committees on environmental protection established in 2006 have run effectively.
Through the security cooperation, Russia and China affirmed their important
roles in improving the peace in Asia-Pacific. It was the foundation promoting the
economic, trade cooperation between two countries.
2.3. THE ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL REALTIONS AND ENERGY
COOPERATION
2.3.1. The economic – trade relations
2.3.1.1. The growth in the economic – trade relations of Russia and China
In the 90s of the XX century, Russian and Chinese goverments paid a special
attention to promote the ecomic relations. However, in this time, many projects, plans
on developing Russia – China economic relationship were not finished or “forgotten”
due to many causes such as Russia’s difficulties, which made Russia – China
The structure of exporting of Russia to China
In the 90s of the XX century, the trade structure of two countries was not
formed clearly. The volume of products exported to China most were weapons, then
equipments, machines and materials. In contrast, garment and shoses were most of the
exported products of China to Russia.
Since 2000 so far, the export-import structure of two countries has been formed
clearly and become stable gradually, however, the ratio of products has been changed
as the time:
In 2000 – 2004, besides transportation equipments which made up for most of
Russian exported products (23.4%), materials increased sharply and become the main
exported ones of Russia to China.
Since 2005 so far, Russia – China trade structure has been changing with higher
ratio of crude materials. They ranked the first in the exported products of Russia to
China (51.6 – 74.8%). By 2008, minerals (mainly crude oil and petroleum) still ranked
the first position (56.4%) among exported products to China, then wooden products
and pulp made up for 15.5%, equipments and machines only occupied 4.4%.
The exporting structure of Russia to China in the past years has been the
increasing crude materials, and reducing technical machines.
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The structure of exporting of China to Russia
For China, main exporting products were consumer products such as garments,
electric products, groceries, in which garments made up for most. From 1996 to 2000, the
consumer products was the main exported ones and kept increasing in the exporting structure
of China to Russia while equipments, and transportation means made up for a small part and
did not increase. However, in 2005, besides keeping the postion of the consumer products,
machines increased quickly (2.5 times), about 20%.
Since 2006, the structure of exporting of China to Russia has changed sharply
and has been stable in 4 product groups, including: (1) Machines, equipments,
transporation; (2) Garments and consumer industrial products; Metal, chemical and
other ones. The goups (1) and (2) always kept the first rank, however, the group (2)
Chinese investment into Russia 465 935 1374 1614
Russian investment into China 541 610 660 720
Compared with China, the position of Russia among big trade partners of China
was quite more modest due to limitations in Russian economy. This was an umbalance
in Russia – China economic relations.
15
2.3.2. Russia – China energy relations
In Russia – China economic relationship, the most important goods were
energy, therefore, energy cooperation had become one of the important contents of
Russia – China relations.
In the early 90s, Russia – China energy cooperation had many limitations due to
small demand of China. From the middle of the 90s of the XX century, energy became
more and more important content of bilaterial discussions between leaders of China
and Russsia.
* In terms of petroleum
On September 9, 2001, the agreement on building the 2400km oil pipeline
connecting Siberia (Angarsk), Russia with Daquing, China with capacity of 20 million
tons/ year was officially signed. Then, on the foundation of common agreements 2002
– 2003 emphasizing “the cooperation in energy plays a speical role to both countries”,
petroleum of Russia carried to China by train ensured to supply to China (in 2004, it
was 88,000 barels/day, in 2005: 110,000 barels/day and in 2006, it was 200,000
barels/day).
On December 31, 12, 2004, Russia decided to make a great adjustment to the
project of building oil pipeline, revoming the plan of Angarsk – Daqing oil pipeline in
order to export petroleum to many countries such as China, Japan, Korea. This decison
was considered as the challenge to Russia – China relations because it made China
unsatisfied. In fact, all countries must obey the rule in economic relations as in the
market, profit is the most. However, after giving this decision, Russia announced to
give priority to connect the oil pipeline from Skovorodino of Russia to Daqing (60
kilometers) to provide petroleum to China soon and announced to tripple the
series of power plants (hydroelectricity, atomic electricity) which were built (the
typical one was Lian Yan Gang – Lien Van Cang atomic electricity plants in Jiangsu
Province “Tianwan Project”). The potential of Russia – China energy cooperation was
very big.
Russia – China relations in energy, although, had certain limitations (the
freezing of many projects), petroleum became the gold key to help Russia to open the
door of Asia. Russian petroleum slaked the thirst of the Chinese giant industry.
Petroleum contained the economic, political and security contents. It became the
connection, tightening the strategic Russia – China partnership.
Chapter 3
THE COMMENTS ON RUSSIAN FEDERATION –
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA RELATIONS (1992 - 2008)
3.1. SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF RUSSIA – CHINA RELATIONS (1992 - 2008)
3.1.1. Russia – China relations is the strategic partnership
Russia – China relations since 1992 so far has been built on the foundation of the
strategic alliance and friendly neighbor relationship. It contained both basics: the same
benefits and proximity of geography which were a very foundation for the relations
between two countries.
During the development process of their relations, two countries have shown
their efforts in removing differences and harmonizing the benefits to get the strategic
targets. This relationship was built and developed on the basic of the combination
between the national benefits with the regional and international benefits. It was on the
macroscopic scale, meeting the strategic demand of both Russia and China, suiting the
era’s trend. Those factors have been the strength for both countries to harmonize all
conflicts, overcoming historical shortcomings to build and develop the comprehensive
and long-term strategic partnership. It is enough for us to state that Russia and China
have the comprehensive strategic relations.
Russia – China relations from 1992 to 2008 developed from the relationship
normalization (1992 - 1993) to the constructive partnership (1994 - 1995) to the
strategic partnership from 1996. From 1996 to now, Russia – China strategic
3.1.3. The duplicity affecting the closeness of Russia – China relations
Inside the Russia – China relations, there were both conflicts and benefits.
Therefore, during the development period, the duplicity of the cooperation and
competition still existed within Russia – China relations, which caused remarkable
effects on the relations.
Besides the supporting of each other in terms of developing conditions on the basic
of the same national benefits, Russia and China needed to create a peaceful environment
in the region as well as in the world. As a result, the cooperation in Russia – China ties in
recent years has kept being enhanced both in width and depth. However, beside the
promoted coopeartion, competion and controling each other still existed.
The first indication of competition between Russia and China was the
competition in the relationship with America. Both Russia and China respected to
improve the relations with America; therefore, they competed with each other in
developing the relations with America.
The second expression was the competition in strength: both Russia and China
wanted to control the strength of each other.
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When comparing with other relationship pairs, the cooperation is the strategic one
while the competition between two countries was just tactics and the conflict in
benefits in situations, therefore, it did not affect the characteristic of the relations.
However, the competition between Russia and China in the relationship development
with America, and the competition in the power with each other in recent years have
affected remarkably the closeness of the relation (shown in the cooperation in energy,
military, and the attitude of China to Russia – Grudia war).
3.1.4. Inadequate relationship with the cooperation potential of two
countries
Comparing with the Russia – China diplomatic – politic relations, as well as
other relation pairs such as America – China, China – Japan, Russia – EU, the
economic effects of two countries were quite limited.
In the 90s of the XX century, the economic relation was stagnated. Coming to
To the XXI century, together with movement and development of the
relationship between Russia and China, and the economic, energy, weapon contracts, it
was the enhancing the strength to develop together. The strategic cooperative areas
such as energy exploitation, technical science, border area developing continued to
affect two countries’ development.
The completion of border identification not only ensured the benefits of two
countries about the peaceful environment for development but also created the
conditions for border cooperation between two countries, which brought strategic
results, promoting the cooperation of the Russia – China border area, contributing to
promote both economies.
Clearly, the first effectiveness of the relations was to promote the economies of
two countries, contributing to enhance the strength and made two countries to be
powerful in Asia – Pacific.
*Enhancing the national position
In the transitional period to form a new world order with calculations of
powerful countries, enhancing the national position became the strategic mission of
large countries including Russia and China.
The mutual relationship between cooperation and development met the
strategic targets of both Russia and China. When America did not want such a
powerful country as former Soviet, as well as did not want China to be powerful
country, Russia – China relations not only was an opportunity for both to become
powerful countries but also enhanced the positions of each county to counterbalance
with calculations of the US.
3.2.2. Effects on the region and the world
3.2.2.1. The duality effects on Asia
*Promoting the development and ensuring the regional security
Russia – China relations since 1992 has made great effects on promoting the
development as well as ensuring the security situation of Asia. The origin of Russia –
China relations was to create a stable, security environment and make the region
develop. As being two large countries, Russia and China has had many effects on
potential challenges inside Russia – China relations.
In the current context, the imbalance between Russia and China has been
increasing quickly in both economy and military, which makes potential risks, and
challenges to Russia – China relations in the future.
The conflict inside Russia – China relations was due to the scrambling for
affecting role in Mid-Asia. The strength became the support for the competition of
Russia to fight over the controlling rights to resources in Mid-Asia. This fact was the
origin of the conflict risk about the strategic benefits between Russia and China rights
in the region. Besides, the strategy of Russia and China to the U.S limited Russia –
China relations.
The outside challenges mainly were the challenges from America. They tried to
launch the methods to disintegrate the connection of SCO. They also increased the actions
in Mid-Asia and wanted to break the connection block between Russia and China who
wanted to fight against the global suzerain ambition of America. At present, America is
publicly boosting the construction of National missile defense (NMD) around Russia and
China, increasing the challenges to the strategic Russia – China relations.
The shortcoming, challenges inside Russia – China relations always have two-
side effects on this relationship. Firstly, it causes certain obstacles to development of
the relations. On the other hand, it is the decisive factor for the stability of the
relations. Overcoming the challenges to develop is the best trial to Russia – China
relations in the future.
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3.3.2. The moving abilities of Russia – China relations in the XXI century
The governments of Russia and China as well as many scholars of the two
counties always feel optimistic about the development of their relationship in the
future. However, European and American researchers have many contrast viewpoints
about this problem. In general, in the current world, researchers give out 3 main
development trends of Russia – China relations in the coming time:
The firs trend: the world is still in the transitional period of a new world order,
in which America continues to be the most powerful country and still finds ways to
relations.
In terms of subjective factors, from the above situation, both China and
Russia highly appreciates the improving, tightening the relations between them,
especially emphasizes the tightness and the interdependent relationship in the two
countries’ ties.
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If among the objective factors, American factor continues to be the
encouragement connecting Russia and China, in the subjective factors, the common
benefits will continue to be the catalyst promoting the relations to develop. And of
course, the interaction between the subjective and objective will be the same
denominator deciding the future of two countries. Therefore, in many next decades (at
least to middle of the XXI century), Russia – China will continue to develop on the
current foundation and move toward to first trend. Russia and China continue to
remove conflicts and challenges to promote their strategic partnership
comprehensively. But this relationship could have some new characteristics.
CONCLUSION
1. Russia – China relations have passed many ups and downs: ever being the
“strategic alliance”; ever being competitors, and having new development. The “Sino
– Soviet interdependent alliance” in the first 10 years supported China to rise, helped
Soviet to have a strong political partner – enough to make balance in Cold War. In
next 10 years, the over-superiority of Chinese leaders pushed Sino – Soviet relations
to the abyss. The lesson for two countries in this period was the political and
ideological conflicts caused greater damages to both. The ending of the Cold War and
the collapse of Soviet became the starting point for a totally new relationship in both
model and content. Russia – China relations from 1992 to 2008 developed from
normalization, to the “constructive partnership” and to the “strategic partnership”.
The achievements of Russia - China relations in nearly 20 years have been built on the
advantageous subjective and objective foundations, especially the same national
benefits. That foundation made a new and active relation structure in the changing
world as today.
researches of scientists in the coming years.
5. The development of the strategic Russia – China relations was, is and will
have effects on Vietnam because Vietnam is both neighbor of China and has the
traditional relationship with Russia. First and for most, this relationship creates an
advantageous cooperative environment for Vietnam with Russia and China in
particular and with the region in general. Secondly, Russia – China relations is the
relationship between two powerful countries, despite its duplicity and pragmatism,
their benefits are associated with each other. Therefore, they need each other, consider
the attitude of each other and respect each other in dealing the international matters.
This is good for Vietnam if she takes advantage of the positive aspects, in contrast, it
will be disadvantages for Vietnam because powerful countries often do not respect
benefits of small countries, even they could accept scarification and exchange small
countries’ benefits. Facing that reality, Vietnam must have “intelligent foreign policy”
in order to take advantage of the good aspect of this relationship.
As Vietnam is a small country, when having relationship with Russia and
China, the “adoring the rising sun” is necessary, and being neutral is advisable.
However, the most important thing is that Vietnam needs to be flexible, both taking
advantage and being wise to solve matters with China. In the current conditions, when
Russia has certain benefits in East Sea, Vietnam should court the intermixed benefits
of Russia and China in Southeast Asia to induee Russia to take part in solving the
regional matters. Therefore, Vietnam could be flexible to apply the “vertical
cooperation” and “horizontal cooperation” foreign strategies to cooperate with both
Russia and China for development.
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