TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN

NGUYỄN HỮU TRƯỜNG HƯNG
HOÀN THIỆN HỆ THỐNG CẢNH BÁO SỚM VỀ CÁC VỤ
KIỆN CHỐNG BÁN PHÁ GIÁ HÀNG XUẤT KHẨU NÔNG
SẢN CỦA VIỆT NAM


!"#"$!%&'()
*!+!,-"#!!
./0122
2
MỤC LỤC
34
356789/:;:<=>;>:<;>;;?@4AB:CDEF
AG:;:3>H4I<J.:;:CJKL3AM:/AB:
G@MKNEO4AP7:8+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Q
<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=G5GR@N::S3L7M@ME4
=>=47+3T4@U4H4/E4=>KLVW:X4=47?
Y>VZ[VOV6V>J7Y@M:;:@FV=:<;>;;/:3B
:L>@N@=:X4AM:/Y:<=G:;:7YZCJ:OV7:KLVW
GMA:;34/<4C4/Z7\+IU672]]^4/:C:;:@FV=?G_2
@F/3O>8GMG:;:@FV=:<;>;;++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Q
`Y:Ea@b/3T4@U4H4.:X4=:J<;CM7@c:S
d:/:A4>;AB:=HJ3@=::X.>S3;:;:@F
V=:<;>;;+LGABZ:J<;:A4:4/E:A4:OCN>9
[:/;;Ve77M:fEUGg@=:b>Z/CG=Z+h@b/
3d3ATB>4:S3L<i.VJC@FV=/dG7J7=
HJ:X4:Z;::J<;CM7+jL>;UN:/dk'lmm
n!opq'$`rqsmn!pq*q!ql!
jtuv!ow(m(`xAB::yI:z++++++++++++++++++Q

4~p.ZAP+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}0
<~p.4+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}_
:~p.:•8A+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}^
E~p.:[++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}^
ˆ~;:p./HJG‰CJKL|p.ŠCJ/p.Z=>@*;3IZ
Z/p.Z=>\~+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}Q
‹~;:PH4V;:Ap.A>;>/9AM:++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}}
~;:i4>AP+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}…
~*SAP7@Z=>=47|~+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++}…
DANH MỤC CÁC CHỮ VIẾT TẮT
Chữ viết tắt Tên đầy đủ tiếng Anh Tên đầy đủ tiếng Việt
_
ADB (C4%ˆ@ˆG>7ˆp4V 9>;3I9q
BCT p.ZAP
CBPG <;>;;
EU Œ3>ˆ4 79•
FTA Ž3ˆˆ34Eˆ(3ˆˆ7ˆ =>iAP7NE
GDP !3CC%7ˆC:*3E: •CJ>W7H:.
HS
437•ˆE77E
%ˆC:3>4EEˆCˆ7
=S4
VASEP
ˆˆ47(CC:4‹
ˆ4‹EŒK>3ˆ3C4E
*3E:ˆ3C
=>.<@jLVW
XCJ=47
VCA ˆ477>ˆ(3 F:‚JG‰:34
XNK jLb>VW

:Sd:/:A4>;AB:=HJ3@=::X.>S3;:;:@F
V=:<;>;;+LGABZ:J<;:A4:4/E:A4:OCN>9
[:/;;Ve77M:fEUGg@=:b>Z/CG=Z+h@b/3
d3ATB>4:S3L<i.VJC@FV=/dG7J7=HJ
:X4:Z;::J<;CM7+ jL>;UN:/d k'lmm
n!opq'$`rqsmn!pq*q!ql!
jtuv!ow(m(`x AB::yI:z.
2+Những công trình nghiên cứu liên quan đến đề tài
4:O3Ld:Z3h:zd:b>GR@N:AGb
@6:Ce:X43APi{ph|67011}~@Mdk!J>;>6U4:;:
@FV=>;;KLVW=473dV=.b>VH:x/Gb
@6?A434:;:>9[:@d:;:@FV=<;>;;7=47?Y>>J/
9G7JC:;:@FV=IUOA434:;:J>;>6U4:;:@FV=>;
;KLVW7Y:Ea@bd:A4>9[:@43S:8:8:O=
:J<JCM7@d:;:@FV:<;>;;KLVW:X4=47+
•@Mdk=7:<;>;;g7.CAM:3M@
<y:@M=47x|670121~:X4:Ce€i44@dk
=7>O@M:;:@FV=<;>;;3AP7H::X4:;:AM:4
>;3I@<y::=47x|67011•~:X4:Ce‚4S4/:J4;:
J?d:b>MV=7:X4:;:AM:3MI>O@M:;:@FV=
:<;>;/7Y:Ea@b:;:J>;>AB::;:AM:3M3IV4:A4
N:CN>aB>@M5Y:a=47@3Gb@6:ƒ:A4„:
J>;>:8K9EN7.=:J<JCM7@d:;:@FV=:<;>;
KLVW:X4=47+
3VO/dkp;>;;@:<;>;;3AP7H:
7.C<y:V=73{34:=47x67011…:X4:Ce†;
d/;:J:ƒ7M:f>9[:5@Ld:G<;>;;/:
<;>;;/:;:z::;:H:43M;>EF<=>;>:<;>;IU
O;:J3{34V=7:=47+`Y:Ea@b3:;:<y:V=7
}

<4€7_:AP
AP25@Ld:@d=:J<;CM7 @d:;:@FV=
:<;>;KLVWZCJ:X4=47+
AP0N:3=:J<;CM7@d:;:@FV=:<;>;
KLVWZCJ:X4=47+
AP_•iAM@J>;>I==:J<;CM7U
4:67012Q+
•
CHƯƠNG 1: NHỮNG VẤN ĐỀ CHUNG VỀ HỆ THỐNG CẢNH BÁO SỚM
VỀ CÁC VỤ KIỆN CHỐNG BÁN PHÁ GIÁ HÀNG XUẤT KHẨU NÔNG
SẢN CỦA VIỆT NAM
1.1. Những vấn đề chung về hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
1.1.1. Khái niệm về hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
Hệ thống cảnh báo sớm các vụ kiện chống bán phá giá, chống trợ cấp và tự
vệ là một hệ thống thu thập và phân tích các thông tin, diễn biến liên quan đến các
vụ kiện áp dụng các biện pháp phòng vệ thương mại để đưa ra những cảnh báo sớm
về nguy cơ xảy ra các vụ kiện này đối với hàng xuất khẩu có kim ngạch lớn của Việt
Nam và khuyến nghị các giải pháp ứng phó.
1.1.2. Đối tượng của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
•AB:J<;:X4=:J<;CM7G:;:@FV=:<;>;
;/:3B:L>@N@=|:;:@FV=;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7~
@MO4KLVW:X4=47+
1.1.3. Phạm vi của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
1.1.3.1. Phạm vi sản phẩm và nhóm sản phẩm của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
:[GN4:yCJ>W7–O7CJ>W7
|2~ATK<iV=:<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=3
AP7H:3T4H4+
|0~7:@Š3yKLVW:4+
|_~:.63Ag:4/:O[GF:34_67+
|^~DEFdG4.+

€7 Thủy hải sản; Da giày, Dệt may, Đồ gỗ; Dây diện và cáp điện; Mặt hàng máy
móc, điện tử.
1.1.3.2. Phạm vi thị trường cảnh báo
:[K;:i>7@i3AT
%N431}:[:P<JC4
|2~;:9KLb>VW:X4=47@Mi3ATb>VW+
|0~7:KLVW:X4=47@i3AT|;3i–Š3y~+
|_~•CGAB:;:@FV=;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP77
i3ATAM:b>VW?VgV=O:@;>EF@M
O4KLVW=47O33567H4+
|^~P:L7YKLVW:X4=47@i3ATb>VW+
21
|Q~:.63AgKLVW:X4=47@i3AT34
8L+
|}~[E=@dV@N:i4G‰+
N4:yi3AT:J<;
ˆCG=?g>8/z8E4C;::;:AM:Vg
V=Gt•.@MQ01:.:d34~/4•|^2^~@Œ|_•0~/>G:;:
AM:q:ˆ4/47*/›:+++
•@M:;:AM:?:;:@FV=@M=47/z8GŒ
|21@F~/>ˆG4•@t•.|:a:O1^@F~/>ˆG44E4/•R
•/(b>/(:ˆ4/+++
3C:;:@FV=?KLVW@M=47/:;:@FV=:O
GM:OJAg;VIM.CJKL/KLVW:X4=47|A@F
V=p*!:;34/:;<4C4/@FV=Z7/@FE4/+++~db>3g10i3AT
KLVWGML:X4=47Gi3AT4•@i3ATŒ+
3:PCgKˆ7Kœ/;;:;::[3/:ƒA€9GN:
@[:L7M:X4.E:Z@=:/348K9EN=/4C“
b>3ˆEš@:J<;@M10i3ATKLVW:[:X4=47G
4•@7:9•|Œ~+•9:ƒG10i3AT:[:O:;:@FVg

|Q~9:4‰z:/[:X.>S3;:;:@FV=;>EF:;:<=>;>
>S@=AP7:X4:;:E4=>KLVW/=>.=
47+‚4O/9:4[:34/@i:34:X4:;:E4=>=
473i3ATH:+
|}~6:ATCNB>;:@I<Gc454[>X@:;:E4=>/
=>.3:Z;::X.>S/3;:;:@FV=AP7
AM:+
1.1.5. Vai trò của hệ thống cảnh báo sớm về các vụ kiện chống bán phá
giá hàng xuất khẩu nông sản của Việt Nam
3<:JCGAB:;:@FV=>S@=AP7@MO4
KLVW:X4=474:OKAM:6/:Z;::J<;CM7
:;:@FV=GCz:H43yI:X.>O@M:;:@FV=/<J@=GB[:
:X4:;:E4=>=47+‡7V„:>F:5::X4:Z;::J
20
<;3/H4O/9:4=HJ/:LGAB:X4:Z;::J<;CM7:ƒ
A>aB>@M€9GN::X4p.ZAP/@=:K9EN7.=
:J<;CM7:;:@FV=:<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=:f::
:;:7YKLVW:OV7:GM:X4=47GCz::8+
%O/34@b<48/=:J<;CM7C“b>3
€GN:IˆEš@:J<;5i3ATKLVW3yI7/:OJ
Ag;VIM.KLVW:X4=47A4•/Œ@b>3
ˆEš57YKLVW:OV7:GM:X4=47A7YE=
74/E4/XCJ/€™/+++3:;:4@b>ˆ/=C“
d:f>7@i3AT@>7@CJ>W77.:;:[:B>@M7z:.
=HJ@5dV=/:J:FI+
•@M5i3ATKLVW:X4=47VZ.:>7@:X4
=:J<;ˆd;/:;:AP@F=47:;:i3ATOC“
@c>F:>B>@MF:‚JG‰:34@:;:P@i:OGH43I
V4N:=:Z;::J<;|267–0G8~ˆ8:X410:Z@6
3  |  C  ^1…•–p`‚    _–…–011}  @    C  2Q_1–p`‚

>;3I@a/h3J7C{.CJKL/O:D4@+@+++~
`z:.:34:X4CJ>W7GH4i3ATb>VW+
5Z/;;/bi@dKAME†34:;:@FV=;>
EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7EAM:b>VW+3O/
:8GA‰5AM::O@i3[i4G‰8@M=47/Y:<=G3‚:
E:;:@FV=AP7AT:O[>JzE9:d@8:;:@F
V=>S@=AP7@M=47d:OGH4M3‚:+h
@b/:8Y:<=ˆEš:;:CJ>W7<i;>:<;>;;/:3B:L>
@Mb>VWU3‚:3@S06789@KœKˆ7G=C
G=KLVWU=47:OXGMI:OI<id34:<;>;;3
:;::.:d34>ˆ4VZ+
54•@KAM>;3I3=Gb>;>/:;:H
iY:ZG=;>EF7JAg@F@=:;>EF:;:<=>;>>S
@=AP7AM:b>VW˜@
`.C.EV;:A@GW3;:<;>;;/J
–'/4:ZPJ@E†</KAM:X4@=::IEi:8AAM:
:X4:;:AM:3V@N:/Y:<=GU3‚:@M5CJ>W7
?@4GH4:;:@F@=:>S@=AP7+
2^
1.2.1. Xác định nguồn và phương thức thu thập
G=V|E5V=iGAB~
=47G=VKLVWU•:F:JH4@:;:=>
.|@[EF(Œ*/ŒŽ('/Ž'•Œ+++~˜
i3ATAM:b>VW
- G=Vb>VW
žU:PH4JH4/:PH4HJG‰/;7C;b>VW:X44•|
~@Œ|Œ3C4~Y:5:PH4:z:6V;:HJG‰CG=KLb>
VW+
ž5CG=V74[;3i46AB:•B>@>9
O7ˆ5Z@d;3i/CGAB/i>8/Š3y/;KLVW/K

GABb>VW7ˆCJKL<i;:.AM:b>VWhC
GABOG;VI+%O/7.:L>8ˆ::X47.=:J<;CM7
=HJG>J;7C;54•3CGABKLVW:X4=
47|ŠG=63Ag~:X4O7CJ>W7:J7+OI>;3I7.:AP
3h7;[Ib<5V@N:CJ>W74:OŠG=63AgC
GABKLVW:4@ABA :OIK;:i3AM:@3B{>:@=:K;:
i5V@N:CJ>W7:8AB:>9[:VeP+
•;;7z:.J7C{@d;KLVW
p:@=:CGABKLVW6G/;<;KLVWJ7
:ƒ:OIJAgM@=:AM:b>VWHi<„87.@FV=
>S@=AP7+%O/=:J<;CM7C“>J>9[:54
•3;<;KLVW+
•@MCJ>W7–O7CJ>W7KLVW:OV7:GM:X4=47
3>7@d;/=C“b>Z@dP;3<h3
4_67|@[EF3TV•011}011•~@56789|@[EF011•
@011]~I>9[:@>9:4P;3<hˆUH‰@hA@b
=:OIK;:iKAM6J7;3TV•7.67@3T
V•ˆEš+ZC“AB:C„>K>ˆUAM:@•I+
ƒ:OI>;3I7.:AP3h7;[Ib<5V@N:
CJ>W74:O7z:;KLVW(CJ7g7z:;VI934G+
2}
*9[:7H4=54KLVW:X4=47@MKLVW
:X4:;:AM:V;:+
3d3ATB>/CN6CGABb>VWU7.AM::f
P8EJ7CGABb>VWU7.AM:V;:/:zVZ>JEC
GAB<;:X4:;:CJKL3AM:J7|b>VWU7.AM:
4:b>VWU7.AM:V;:~+35h/[:O
VJ6@=:CGABb>VWU7.AM:6GC“Vœˆ7.@FV=
>S@=AP7+%O/>4
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:J<;CM7+
ˆE
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:[C;:@ZG=;>EF3:;:@FV=>S@=AP
7:
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4AP
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>V9
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ZAT/@=:4•:[C;:@ZG=;>EFGH4@=:
;>:<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=KL>;U:;:AM:b>VW
‡7bGB::PH4:OW7Hd:X4AM:O3@=:;>@
:<;>;;Y:345bGB–GB[::CJKL3
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9EcM@=:KJ34@FV=+[@h@b/@=:ˆEš@>9[:
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5.EZ3G:8@AB:N:=7.:;:AT
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*9[::4
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:7Z
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1.2.3. Tiêu chí và cấp độ cảnh báo
O_:L>.:J<;€7L>.:J<;©’/©@@©E4:47
L>.:J<;©’;>EF@M:;:O47:P7Y
C“GAB:X4:;:@FV=:<;>;;GV;3š3@KJ343
APG43L8|EAM};~/:FI€7:;::[C49
žO5€Z:[z:@3š3|@[EF?:OPVgV=
:X4CJKL/?:O5EL=@d@=:d34<48\~U:P
H4:z:6/U@6>SGbCA4U<;:[:O[\:L:OVJ6
KJ34@FV=@M7.7Y:FI+
žOi>8b>VW:4|I3_¡@.:1QAM::Oi>8
b>VW:4L~/64@dGAB/:O[GF:+
žŠG=J7;KLVW;VI|(~Y:;KLVW:X4=47
L>P7Y<‡;b>VW3<hAM:b>VW7.:;:;VI+
ž`Y4<i;>:<;>;;/:3B:L>@N@=AM:
b>VWY:7.–7.CAM:GH4V;:\
L>.:J<;©E4:47;>EF@MO4:O5EL=:
L:OdVJ6C“3P@87„7:X4:;:@FV=|U};3gG~/:F

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1.2.4. Nội dung cảnh báo
A?AB:3h<>89G7JC:;:@FV=AP
7AM:/:;:@FV=;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7AB:Vg
KAMd34@hd9+%@b/=:J<;CM7C“
VO:OI<:„::„3‡C“:O7.@FV=:<;>;;/:3B
:L>/N@=AB:VgKAM+Od@[EF:L5@FV=@cAB:
7Y:Ea:O3L[@y„V=@:O5@F@=:VZ<iVgKAM
d347Y:Ea3š3G;b>VW<i<;>;;@4934=+
[@h@b/7.<;:;:J<;CM7=HJ:ƒ:87ZJ:PVg
2]
KAM7.:.:d34;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=AP7@M7.CJ
>W7:FI+
3:PCg>9G:;::L>.:J<;@M:;:7YˆUi
3AT/.E:J<;C“<4€75Z:[C4
|2~Z:J<;ˆ<4:L>.•©’/©E4:47/©@|:O~
|0~Z/E†<@d:;:@Fd34;>EF:;:<=>;>>S@=
AP7:;:AM:b>VW@:;:@FV=4E†34‘'|:O~@d
7Y4AB::J<;+
|_~;:J>;>/Vi.:[>X:ƒA:;:=>
./E4=>KLVWIY:G3;7.:.:d34:
<;>;;Y:GJH7.@FV=?AB:A@d:GAB:KL
VW/:I•i3AT/:P:L7Y/:O5d:f@d:.KL

:X4:;:P@i:OGH4/F:‚JG‰:34C“Hi@dAB@
hz:A434:J<;[:B>+
1.3. Kinh nghiệm quốc tế về xây dựng hệ thống cảnh báo sớm
1.3.1. Kinh nghiệm của Trung Quốc
=4/3M:f:O397A@L‘'|–‘'~”3N:
.:w<49E9>ABJ”3‚:?K9EN@3I
V4=+IU;Q–0112/=:J<;CM7:X43‚:<„
8AB:3IV4/397–‘'?7LVJ2•;I:z
:;:@Ld:P<J:X4=:J<;/C4O=<„8AB:@b+
T4<48/=:J<;:Xb>3@:J<;i3AT
4•+`Y8AB::J<;G7YE=74:X43‚:KLVW
@4•+4•67/=?GF:AB:8A/9:L>@:4
=:J<;?7g3.ˆEš@:J<;02:XGO4|]…
:AP/<4€78A<.:;:7Y/d~…•AM:–@aG?
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<=>;>>S@=AP7+•9G<.>b3N:>@b=ˆEš
@:J<;CM7|:O21@AT3N:<4€7:;::43:;:
GR@N:V/AP7H:/Gb/;y:@:Z=Z~+
34/397ATK@:.;:@M:;::4U:;:AM:3
H;3h.+
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–‘':XEPH4:[Hdi4>APGw<49E9*+
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|2~>[K9EN<48€7:;::>[8A34<i03=%˜7;
7O:/>8:z/:>[74>87d7>9[:/KDG‰CG=/<;:;23=
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:3B:L>@N@=+
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V4:X4@::J<;/T4:W<i/V>[8A/7F:[::ƒA
>AP>;>GbC“AB:Hi@>a.:@7™H:4@7™<
:JN:†+%@b/:OIO@=:K9EN=:J<;CM73G
V;7M7—@M=47/S’:OCNI<V;:C9@dhhi
3AT/CJ>W7/E<VH:/Hi:X4>;>Gb@ZG=;>
EF:X4:;::PH4d34:OW7Hd˜V=7>9[:/;;/•
B>@F@=:˜@€V>[VZ’:K9EN:PCg8/
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=:J<;CM7ATVZbCN3š3=@VOiGABAB:+
[@h@b/=:J<;CM7C“AB:K9EN7.:;:>aB>@M
dV=N:†:X4=47@AB:3IV4N:=ˆG.3hB>G‰+
CHƯƠNG 2: THỰC TRẠNG HỆ THỐNG CẢNH BÁO SỚM VỀ CÁC VỤ
KIỆN CHỐNG BÁN PHÁ GIÁ HÀNG XUẤT KHẨU NÔNG SẢN CỦA VIỆT
NAM
2.1. Tổng quan về hoạt động xuất khẩu các mặt hàng nông sản của Việt nam
3567@U4H4/V7:KLVW:X4:{4GF:6H4
:;:67+P:L:;:7YKLVLGF::OCN4E@>;3I+3O
:;:7YZCJ:7@43S3LH43y3:M:L:;:7YKLVW
:XGN::X4=47+MGBG4>8GN:GABG4.GZE9@AT
G4./:a@ML477 /@i3[i4G‰bGB/=4745@i3[z
L@z433Ld7YZCJKLVW=4A//
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Bảng 2.1: Giá trị xuất khẩu các mặt hàng nông sản chính của Việt Nam
Đơn vị: 1000 USD
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Nguồn: Tổng cục Thống kê

TỔNG
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Nguồn: Tổng cục Thống kê
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=477M:fP]/2Š%+•670121/;3iKLVW?801
Š%/6L>P0G8C@M6767011}+5:C:Ld7
6KLVW:;:7YG3LGM/LG@M=47G7.LAM:
4>;3I/4>8E9CGZE9G4./:{4:OdGBP
:;:AM:V;:3@=:KLVW:;:7YZCJ3T4M+
Hình 2.2: Tỷ lệ đóng góp của xuất khẩu nông sản trong cơ cấu tổng giá trị xuất
khẩu của Việt Nam
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