Luận văn thạc sỹ kinh tế Phân tích những nhân tố vĩ mô ảnh hưởng đến chỉ số giá chứng khoán tại Việt Nam - Pdf 10










 ! ∀#∃%&
∋∀()∗





+,−.









/





























/∋2∗5,5<5<Ι(1&?05
;05;<=Α∗,+,−ϑ848
6&7<6.9+&?055 
∀8∀?1;∗,45%
/Κ%≅ΕΛΜΝ:ΟΟ,ΠΝΟΝ
 /:+

ε+Π%ηςχ.9+6,Ζ∆:ςαΤΤ
κα
αΤΤ
α

ε+Π%λςχ.9+φ9−1γΟλι
ε+Π%µςχ.9+6,Ζ∆:ςαΤΤ
κα
αΤΤ
α

ε+Π%νς/2,ο,8954(9+5Γ
ε+Π%πςχ.9+6,Ζ,14Ξ58∴ΕΛ


≅1Ο%ΟςΕ05,5Ζ∗?6:
≅1Ο%Πςθ5(,05!0]∗?6:
≅1Ο%Μςθ54Χ.ρ
≅1Ο%ϕς/:795#05:(8+).?6:
≅1Π%ΟςΣΡ∀.Ξ8ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋ :ΝΟσΠΝΝη.:λσΠΝΟΝ
≅1Π%ΠςΣΡ∀.05Ζ∗?6: :Π,ΠΝΝπ.5
≅1Π%ΜςΛ78,Ξ8?6:,/ :
ΟΟσΠΝΝν.:ΟΠσΠΝΝπ
≅1Π%ϕςθ54Α5:Ζ+4Ξ8:?
6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋
≅1Π%ηςθ54Α5#,:Ξ8:?6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋
≅1Π%λςθ54Α5]:8:Ξ8:?6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋
≅1Π%µβΞ8:?6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋
≅1Π%νςθ54Α5Χ,?&<Φ25;ΕΞ8ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋
≅1Π%πςθ54Α5:Ζ<#ο#05ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋

∋Π6Ζ2[/<7:∴/0 Θ−
Φ ])⊥,∃%&∋_(
)%∗+,∃%&∋
_αΦββχ−αΦββ ΘΗ
Φ ∃∴Ζ:δ<4567869:;/0<7=/0>7?≅/ΒΤ63Κ ΘΗ
ΦΦ ]7Ι/6ε<7φΒΠ/ΟΞ/045<7ΓΧ∆0Β≅<7=/0>7?≅/γ/ηιϕ Θκ
ΦΘ ≅</7Ι/6∆4ϑΚΛΜ/77:Ν/0ΟΠ/<7ΓΧ∆0Β≅<7=/0>7?≅/  ΥΦ
Π%Μ%Ο:Ζ+4.Ξ8:?6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋ψψ%ϕΠ
Π%Μ%Πβ#,:+).Ξ8:?6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ϕΜ
Π%Μ%Μ/]:8:+).Ξ8:?6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋%%%%%%%%%%%%% ϕϕ
Π%Μ%ϕβ+).Ξ8:?6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋ %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ϕη
Π%Μ%η/Χ,?&<Φ25<Ζ[+).Ξ8:?
6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ϕλ
ΦΥ ?Ζ:;/0Μ/77:Ν/0<λ3<≅</7Ι/6∆4ϑΚΛΟΠ/<7ΓΧ∆0Β≅<7=/0>7?≅/
γ/ηιϕµ∃νηο/0ΚΛ7π/77θΒ12Β62ΣΠ/6ε/7ρ  ΥΗ
ΦΥΒΨΒ67ΒΤ2ΚΛ7π/7σ7Ι/6ε<7 ΥΗ
Π%ϕ%Ο%ΟΕ:∀.,1%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ϕµ
Π%ϕ%Ο%Πχ,Ζ(9+5Γ%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ϕν
Π%ϕ%Ο%Μχ,Ζ4,−Ζφ&6.%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ηΟ
Π%ϕ%Ο%ϕ7Ρ8≅5%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ηϕ
Π%ϕ%Ο%ηΛ14Ξ58%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ηη
ΦΥΦ7τ/Κυ2ϖ67267[σϖσ7Ι/6ε<7ηωΖΒΤ24ΑΚΛ7π/7:Ψ<Ζ:δ/0Ο56ΑΒ χ−
ΦΥΦ7τ/Κυ2ϖ67267[σ4Ασ7Ι/6ε<7ηωΖΒΤ2 χ−
ΦΥΦΦΛ7π/7:Ψ<Ζ:δ/0Ο56ΑΒ  χΗ
5%Θ(8+).Ξ8:?6:ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ηµ
∀%Λ1+)05 (8ζ,.Ξ8ΨΘδΩ<Γ∋γ,1
(9+5Γι%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ην
ΦΥΘ]7Ι/6ε<7>Π612Μ7θΒ12Β  χξ
Π%ϕ%Μ%Οχ,ΖΦ05,1%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ηπ
Π%ϕ%Μ%Πχ,Ζ4,−Ζ% %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ηπ

ΘΘΙ/0<3?7ΒΤ212Μ45Κ667Λ/06Β/<7?678692;/0<7=/0>7?≅/ΒΤ6
3Κ  ξΦ
ΘΥ&/0ηο/0ΚΛ7π/7Ο8/7Ζ:δ/04Α?ηΩφ≅?0Β≅<7=/0>7?≅/<7?/7Α
Ο26:  ξΦ
∋Π6Ζ2[/<7:∴/0Θ  ξΥ
∋Π6Ζ2[/<72/0  ξχ
ΑΒΖΒΤ2673Κ>7Μ?  ξ−
]7οΖο<
Κ[[Ο %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ππ
Κ[[Π %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΝΟ
Κ[[Μ %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΝΟ
Κ[[ϕ %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΝΜ
Κ[[η %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΝΜ
Κ[[λ %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΝη
Κ[[µ %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΝλ
Κ[[ν %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΟΝ
Κ[[π %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΟϕ
Κ[[ΟΝ %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΟν
Κ[[ΟΟ %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΠΝ
Κ[[ΟΠ %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ΟΠλ





#

∃% &∋()∗+,−./0123456
 ! ∀#∃%&∋()∃∗+∀,−
.,&.,)/0#1(∗#

∴ϑ:.)∃Κ117∋13202#1 
∃2∆#3(]∋(&∆)∃). 4#∗52∆
∋(&∆)∃).ΖΦ+4⊥Χ_ΗΩ:..∗ΞΤ
1#(∀#3;.Σ&0) ;∀#]∋(&∆)∃∗#
Η_Η5∋7∋Γ∗−αΤΧϑ1∗#.7∋Γ2∆Ω:..∗Ξ
Τβ)11Γ22Ε2)!2!5∋7∋Γ
6
<% =0>.?,≅.),./−3.+−35Α0−;,12345
?∋>∗)11∃Φ+)  2Φ1∋χ
5+ 1∀δ∀∋>6:Γ∗−Β∗#%
∆+∗ΞΤ
Υ!7∋1==451Β3∀#%;)∆(Β
)Φϑ2!,
=!∋ΒΦϑΓ8Κ1∆+∗ΞΤ).
17∋1Β7∋1) Χϑ:1,
∆Η_ 0∆∀δ:;()#&4511(
Τ
ε_Η451 5∋7∋Γ∗−αΤ1(Τ
ε_Η 0+7∋15Χ#0%1:..∗ΞΤ∗#ΖΦ+
4⊥Χ_Η1(Τ
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Φ##,Τ7∋1 )∃)!).45
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Τ
Θ% Ρ5(Ε0>0>.5∆0−ΦΕ
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ΠΓ.5∋7∋Γ
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=!∋Φϑ)∃Κ1∃Φ+∆+∗ΞΤ).ΖΦ+Κ1∃
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?ϑ1Α:.)0Χ5
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∆Τ=5∋ΖΦ1Φ+π
∆5∋7∋Γ∗−αΤ&451
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 22;∆)+%1.5∗#Χ;∋Β)  2∗#Φϑ
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 ∋()∃∗+);∋−.χθ#);∋∋1Χ
Τ(2#ΒΦ+−#µΚ1Α)Ε)1∗#0)∃ΦΓΗ∋3
Χ1∗#7∋1)  22;8∃ΦΓΗ∋3ε/∃Σβ#µΕ0)∃
);∋Κ1Τ()/ %)∃)+∗,Φϑ2
!Κ1−.7∋+Χ∆
 ∋32Τ);∋Τςχθ∋32Τς∃
Τ);∋∀#0∗,6∃∀ϑ1Α22ς∀0
&31∋∗−3∗#0∗#)∃ΚΒ
22#);∋ !∀ϑ1Α∀0# 12κΕ2∗,ΓΒφ


ρ

υ

 µΕ∗#ς)σ(Τ(92;1)∗#2!
θµΕ6=92; 1<∗5#∀>2∗#2!Κ1∃
Τ(92;7∋1∗57∋Γ:ΤΒ)Χ152Β:Γ∀/2#Β
2∆2+∃1 Β01#ς∗#Ω) 
∋ς#);∋). 2∗+∗#Τ(92;
  22;)−∋≅1∗+%1#−.Β
0&Φϑ2!1∗#))−∋−.
 ∀#Τφ∋ς∗#!Φ∗+);∋,#
∃%∃%∃%<Π−−.;3.Α3.,Μ>5,3.]3⊥Ι_0>−.Φ0>≅.)Π0%

∋(∃) !∀#
∗+,#+!∀#∃
#2#∀#9ϑ5∋()∃∗+Τ7∋1θ#2#
∀#∋32# 1Κ1θ
2Κ∗#7∋(−)126∀##2#2.∋2Κ∗#
2.∋)126
Τ(2#92.∋∗#2.∋Τ(
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9#2#Τφ#2.∋ΒΖφ
8ϖ2φ∗φ0)∃Κ1Α
∗+−.!∀#∃
#);∋∀#%ϑ5∋1∗#:&θ#);∋
 !∀#1∀0
#);∋∆∀#% ∗+0#µΒ11∋1:&
θ∗,φ).∀Ε∋>∋(&);∋=∀6∋>∀0∀∋Τγ


∋(∃67+−.8∀+9::4 !∀#
);∋1Η_Η).∀Ε∋>1∀01(∀#ξΦ∋3Φ∀ 
)Ε∀#:1&∋∋(&:3!);∋#< (.∋+ΚΡ_Β∀Ε
∋>)≅Ι#1=Κ)!)0∀Ε∋>) #1∗#Ε∀0Υ;∋
<∗>(ΒΚ∗#ξΦ∋3Φ∀Ε∀∋Τ)κ1∋∗#∀#1(.∋+#
1<2Γ7∋1∆
γ∃ηε;5⊥)−.Φ0>≅.)Π0
ψΚ)Ε2∆∀#1∀0χΚ5+∗#Κ25+
!∀
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ψΚ5+∀#Κ)∃).#:∃α;∋.∴ϑ:32:&
Κ1Τ. ∋ΠΘΦφΓΒ∀/Φ∋3:.)∃Β+)∃∀0
21()9∀#%∗Χφ∗−Κ5+Β%:.)9#()∃).Φϑ
Χ1)∃Κ1&ψΚ5+)Ε1∀#Λ∀0
ΚΦ1∋χ
;∀ ∃Π92.∋ !Χ1)∃0∃Γ1
γΒαΧκ∋>2Κ1Τ(Τ1()9∋(&∆Κ1  !3
1∋Β2φ∋∃Κ(.∋∗#=>Κ1#);∋∗−∀092.∋
 ∋Β1(∗−∃ 92.∋ &%1()9Φ∀)+
∗,2;∀,∀092.∋Κ(.∋∀#Χτ∗ΑΚ1#);∋∗# 1()9∗#
Α∀#Κ
;∀4<:∃ψΚ∀/Φ∋3 ).ΦϑΤ9)∗#Φ+
− ∋ >2  6 ∀1Β ∋(& ∆ ∀# Χ1 )∃   ∀/ Φ∋3 ∋
∋(&∆+∀]Κ1Κ∀/Φ∋3∀#Φϑ∀&Η∋+Κ1∀/Φ∋32.∋
2ΚΒ) Φζ Φϑ1()9Φ∀τ∗ΑΚ1∀0
Β) ∀#∀092.∋∗#2.∋Τ(#);∋2.∋

#∗#∃0ψΚΧ1∃02Φ7∋=∗>#0)∃
Κ1Τ(µΤ( ∃∀0Κ∃0&∗#)∃#ΤΚ1µ
Τ(!57∋15∋7∋Γ0)∃
;∀+>∀&7∋1).∗5Τ(#Ε∗+0)∃Κ1=
1Κ#:β∗5Η_Η3∋ς∗+Κ1∃Τ(∴ϑ
Η∋35Κ1ΓΕ3∋ς∗+Φζ01Τ(%Ξ1∗φΓ
∀/#2Γ)Ε1ΚΕ,Γ99)Τ&  
)∃∀,).∋>2Κ1ΑψΚ#∀#Κ !)Ε20
∗##7∋Γ∀δ #7∋(−7∋(.)∗1(1(Τ∗1(∃Τ(Τ
∗1(Ες#ΦζΤ Κ#
γ<ηφαΕ83α50.∗_5


Λ

,η ι.ϕ0.∀
Τ=)#ΦΓ∗+{121∀1ΦΦ_2Χ_∀|}

∀#Τ=ΤΓ
+7∋15%1Κ∗#∀Ε∋>τ∗ΑΤ=#(Β∀Ε∋>τ∗Α
Κ1∃:β∀Ε∋>ΤΚ{Φ∼__}∃∗,∃Γ:κ
)γ2ΚΧϑ1&6Φ8Κ#5+Κ1) ≅ΚΤ
#5+Τ)ΕΗ_ΗΤ=#(Χ#);∋ !Η∆(Χφ
Χ1φ);∋)1Χ0 1)!∀0:ΙΚ#(
?δ∋(.∗−Τ=|∗#ΧφΚ1 Χ1&∃Φ+Γ.7∋1Α
∗−∗#)∃Κ1#);∋Φ1∋χ
  #);∋ γ %Χ1 φ )1 Χ0 1 # #Θ ) 
%)≅Ι∗−ξΦ∋3Φ∀ΕΚ1#);∋:)∃Κ(.∋:8Κ5
+Κ1ΩΤ2ΓΚ9!
  1)Ε1)9φΧ&01∀##

µ
νγε
Μ
οε
µ
ηπθ
κ
γ∃%∃η
) ψ
∼
∀#∀Ε∋>ΤΚΒψ

∀#∀Ε∋>τ∗ΑΚ1Χ1φ
∗#

∀#5Φ+:_1Κ192.∋
6=#(:!∋Χλ∃Χ∋Τ=|Β Χ0#Φ+:>3(:
1Η∗,:.2∋∋∃8)∆(∀#ψ

Β:.)∃∀>2∀#

∗#5Φ+ ∀#{ψ

ψ

}
4−α=ΑΒ+7∋15%1∀Ε∋>τ∗Α92.∋∗#5Φ+Κ:_1
)Ε:!∋Χλ:β) &Α∀#)∴?
{∴_∋(1_∀_}=∗ζΧ,)∆(ΤΓ7∋15%1∀Ε∋>τ∗ΑΚ1
∗,5Φ+Κ1 


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