XAY DONG
MO
HlNH
PHAT
TRI^N
KINH
T£
VI$T
NAM
TRONG
THOI
KY
O£N
2020
Bui Tat Thang*
Trong sd 34(7/2010), Tap chi da gidi
thieu cdc
plidn:
I. Bdi canh; 2. Yeu cdu
phdt trien nhanh han vd ben vdng han
nen kinh te Viet Nam. Trong sd ndy, mdi
cdc ban don xem phdn tiep theo.
3.
Phat trien vdfi
hif
u suat cao
Mud'n phat trien phai cd ngudn
Iffc.
Ngudn
Iffc
cd the tff cd (dat dai, tai

la nen kinh te da tang trudng khdng phai
dffa tren tang nang suat.
Phat trien va phat trien cd hieu suat
la hai khai niem khac nhau. Neu lgi tffc
qudc dan hoac tdng san pham trong nffdc
(GDP) tinh tren dau ngffdi tang hen tuc
trong mdt thdi gian
tffOng
dd'i dai va
trong qua trinh phat trien, cd sff chuyen
dich CP cau dang ke thi cd the coi dd la
mpt nen kinh te phat trien. Trong qua
trinh nay, tff ban dffpc tich luy, dat dai,
tai nguyen dffpc khai khan dffa vao sff
dung va lao dpng dffpc ddng vien ngay
cang nhieu vao cac linh vffc san xuat.
Ngoai ra, cac yeu to' san xuat cung dffpc
di chuyen tff cac nganh cd nang suat thap
nhff ndng nghiep, sang cac nganh cd nang
suat cao hpn nhff cdng nghiep, dich vu,
tao sff chuyen dich ca cau GDP va cac mat
khac cua nen kinh te.
Hien tffpng va sff phat trien nay la qua
trinh GDP hoac san Iffgng (output) tang
len nhd dgng vien ngay cang nhieu cac yeu
to'
san xuat (input). Tuy nhien, neu ngi
dung phat trien chi cd vay thi chffa the ggi
la mot nen kinh te phat trien cd hieu suat.
Nen kinh te

XAY DUNG MO HiNH
PHAT
TRI^N
KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG
THdl
KY
OEN
2020
Van dd hieu suat khdng chi la yeu cau
mang tinh kinh te ma cdn la van de thudc
ban chat cua phat trien ben vffng (md'i
quan he giffa phat trien kinh te va con
ngffdi vdi cac ngudn tai nguyen va mdi
trffdng thien nhien). Nhin lai sff phat
trien cua the ky XX, ngffdi ta nhan thay,
ben canh nhffng thanh tffu tuyet vdi ve
tien bg khoa hgc cdng nghe, ve phat trien
sffe san xuat va cua cai, loai ngffdi da phai
ddi mat vdi mot hien thffc khac nghiet:
dan sd bung nd, ngudn tai nguyen can
kiet, mdi trffdng tdi te di nhanh chdng.
Hoat dpng con ngffdi da pha hoai nghiem
trpng CO sd sinh tdn va phat trien cua
chinh minh, tien dd tdt dep rat cd the bi
pha buy trong mpt sdm mdt chieu. Trong
sff suy xet sau sac ve nguy
cO
sd'ng cdn cua
loai ngffdi, tff tffdng chien
Iffpe

thanh quan niem pho bien cua the gidi
dffang dai. Dffdi nggn cd cua td chffc phat
^
QUAN LY KINH
TE
trien cua Lien Hgp Qudc (UNDP), tff nam
1990,
to chffc nay da cho xuat ban deu
dan hang nam Bdo cao phdt trien con
ngudi vdi y tffdng trung tam, lay con
ngffdi la muc tieu cua phat trien kinh te
vdi
each
nhin md rdng ban ve nhieu mat
trong ddi sd'ng xa hpi.
Phat trien con ngffdi la muc tieu cudi
cung cua phat trien kinh te. Vdi tff
each
la
muc tieu chff khdng phai la mdt phffong
tien, phat trien con ngffdi nham lam giau
cho cude sd'ng con ngffdi. Sff giau cd ve vat
chat (tao ra khdi Iffpng hang hoa va dich
vu ldn han) cd the gdp phan thffc hien dieu
nay, nhffng khdng ban la da phat trien con
ngffdi. Thffc te cho thay, khdng tdn tai mdi
lien he 1/1 giffa sff giau cd ve vat chat
(tinh bang GDP binh quan dau ngffdi) vdi
sff giau cd ve tinh than (tinh bang chi sd
phat trien con ngffdi). Do vay, quan diem

Iffa
chpn, tffc la qua trinh
nane
cao nang
lire
va md rdng
cP
hpi cua ffa chpn " Sff
phat trien cd the
dffpr .i
la mdt qua
$635(8+9/2010)
XAYDl/NG
Md HlNH PHAT TRIEN KINH TE
VIET
NAM TRONG THdl KY DEN 2020
NGHIEN CQU
-
TRAO 001
[^IH
trinh
md
rdng
cac
quyen
tff do
thffc
sff ma
ngffdi
dan

tang trffdng
GNP
hoac
thu
nhap
ca
nhan
cd
the cd y
nghia
bet
sffe quan trpng
vdi
vai
trd la
phffPng
tien
de md
rdng
cac
quyen
tff do ma cac
thanh vien ciia
xa hpi
dffpc hffdng." (Amartya
Sen
2002;
tr. 13).
Trong dieu kien
ddi

te
hgc cd
dien Adam Smith (1776)
da
tffng
ndi:
"Khdng
cd xa hgi nao cd the
chae
chan hffng thinh
va cd
hanh phuc
khi
phan
ldn
ngffdi
dan
phai sd'ng trong canh
ngheo
ddi va khd
cffc" (Michael P.Todaro
1998,
tr.l87.).
Td
chffc Oxfarm
cho
rang:
"Ndi thing
ra,
tinh trang ngheo

bao ve cac
dang
thffc tang trffdng khdng
vi con
ngffdi,
dd
la nhffng hien tffgng tdng trUdng khong
viec
Idm,
khong luang
tdm,
khong tieng
noi, khong
gdc
r§,
khong tuang
lai.
- Tdng trudng khong viec
Idm
(Jobless
growth-where):
la
tang trffdng nhffng
ca
hgi viec
lam
khdng
dffge
md
rdng. Trong

luc
hang trieu ngffdi
ngheo
vin
phai
vat ldn vdi ddi
khat.
UNDP tinh rang,
tff nam 1970 den 1985,
GNP toan
cau
tang 40%, nhffng
sd
Iffgng
ngffdi ngheo cung
da
tang them
17%.
- Tdng trudng khong tieng
noi
(Voiceless growth-where):
la
tang trffdng
khdng
di
cung
md
rgng
dan chu,
quyen

van hda
khac nhau, nhffng nhieu
nen
van hda
trong so'
nay
dang
cd
nguy
cP
mai
mdt,
tham
chi hi van
minh cdng
nghiep quet
bd.
Sau cung tdng trUdng khong tuang
lai
(Futureless growth-where):
la
tang trffdng
kinh
te
phung
phi
nhffng ngudn
Iffc
hien
tai,

Nhffng kieu phat trien tren
day
khdng
chi
lam
tram trgng them tinh trang
bat
binh dang,
ma cdn
khdng
duy tri
dffpc
tinh
ben
vffng trong phat trien.
(Xem:
UNBP: Human Bevelopment Report
1996.
New York, Oxford University Press 1996).
Tff
cac
khia canh
tff
nhien,
xa hpi va ca
che
neu ra, cd the
khai quat
lai la:
"Chien

MB
NGHIEN aim
-
TRAO 001
XAY
DI/NG
MO
HiNH PHAT
TRI^N
KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THOI KY OEN 2020
ity),
cdn bao gdm 3 nguyen tac ve tinh
cong bdng (fairness), nd vffa ddi hdi sff
cdng bang cho ngffdi the he nay, vffa ddi
hdi sff cdng bang cho cac the he sau; tinh
hdi hod (harmony), mot mat la sff hai hoa
giffa con ngffdi va gidi tff nhien, mat khac
la sff hai hoa (hoa muc) giffa ngffdi va
ngffdi; tinh cgng dong (common), nd nhan
manh tinh chinh the cua dia cau va tinh
phu thudc lan nhau cua loai ngffdi, mudn
thffc hien muc tieu chung cua sff phat
trien ben vffng, can ap dung hanh ddng
lien hgp chung toan
ciu".
(Shu Yongqin
2002
tr.6).
Tdm lai, phat trien ben vffng la sff
phat trien mang tinh tdng hgp vdi muc

dffdng CNH di ra the gidi bang bp mat
cua chu nghla thffc dan (xam chiem thugc
dia, va vet tai nguyen, md rgng thi
trffdng,
cffOng
vffc ). Ngay nay, nhffng
nffdc di sau khdng the (va cang khdng cd
ca hdi) lap lai con dffdng lich sff day mau
Iffa
ay. Nhffng hp cd each hpc hdi kinh
nghiem va du nhap dffpc cac ngudn
Iffc
phat trien ve vd'n, cdng nghe - ky thuat,
|]3 QUAN LY KINH
TE
tri thffc quan ly, nhan
Iffc
de rut ngan
khoang each thdi gian so vdi cac nffdc
CNH
CO
dien
trffde
day nhd
"Ipi
the cua
ngffdi di sau", do nhffng dac diem mang
tinh thdi dai la xu the tang nhanh tien
trinh toan cau boa vdi nhffng bieu hien
mdi ve chat mang lai.

gia gid day thffdng xuyen phai chiu sffe ep
canh tranh mang tinh toan cau, cugc
canh tranh vi the che da bdt ddu va the
che qud'c gia phai thich ffng nhieu ban vdi
toan cau hoa.
Hai la, trong dieu kien todn cdu hod
tdi chinh, quan he qud'c te chiu sff chi
phdi cua chinh sach tai chinh - tien te,
ma chinh sach nay lai khdng tach rdi
khdi yeu td chinh tri. Tren thffc te, toan
cau hoa ngay nay diin ra ca dffdi hinh
thffc dau tranh giffa cac nffdc vdi cac the
Iffc
tai chinh khac nhau. Chinh vi vay,
toan cau hoa tac dgng den cac nffdc khac
nhau mdt
each
khdng g nhau. Viec
tim ra phffong thffc
he :
Ac trong dau
$635(8+9/2010)
XAY DUNG MO HiNH
PHAT
TRIEN KINH
li
VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY
D^N
2020
NGHIEN CUU

d cac
nffdc dang phat trien. Mffc
dp thu hut FDI
cua Trung Qud'c
va
thanh cdng tang
trffdng kinh
te cua hp 20 nam qua la mot
bang
ehffng
rat
thuyet phuc
ve
dieu
nay.
Tuy nhien, cuoc khung hoang kinh
te - tai
chinh chau
A
cudi thap nien
90 cua the
ky
trffde
va dac
biet
la
cude khung hoang
tai chinh
va suy
thoai kinh

chd't
dffge
rut ra tff
chinh kinh nghiem
khic
phuc
hau qua
ciia khung hoang kinh
te -
tai chinh chau
A, dd la
minh bach
hoa
cac boat ddng
tai
chinh, tang cffdng hanh
ddng
tap the d khu
vffc
va the
gidi trong
viec phdi
hpp
chinh sach phat trien kinh
te.
Dieu
nay ngu y, an
toan
nam d
chinh

nhff
trffde
day,
cac
ludng
di cff
thffdng
gin
vdi
nhffng
bien dgng
ldn ve
kinh
te the
gidi,
thi
trong toan
cau hoa
ngay
nay, cac
ddng
di
chuyen
lao
ddng qudc
te lai
diln
ra
thffdng
xuyen

trieu ngffdi
di
chuyen
den nai d
mdi trong
ngi bd cua cac
qudc
gia.
Cung nhff toan
ciu
hoa tai
chinh,
sff
gia tang td'c
dp va quy md di
chuyen ddng
nhan
Iffc
da dem lai
nhieu
cP hdi cho cac
nffdc dang cdng nghiep
hoa. Dd'i vdi
linh
vffc
thffPng
mai
hang
hoa va
dich

rat
nhanh chdng. Nhff
vay
la,
trong
bdi
canh toan
cau hoa tai
chinh ngay
nay,
chien Iffgc cdng nghiep
hoa phai tinh
tdi sff
boat dgng
cua
mang
Iffdi
san
xuat
da
qud'c
gia,
dffge
hd trg bdi
mang thdng
tin
Internet toan
ciu
(chudi
gia

hoa
trffde
day, khi ma sff
phan cdng
lao
dgng qud'c
te
didn
ra chu
yeu
qua
viec cung
cap san
pham chff chffa
hoan toan
la sff
phan cdng
lao
ddng thdng
qua chuyen
mdn hoa
chffc nang
san
xuat
theo
he
thd'ng lien
ket
mang toan
ciu.

mdt la, tff chd d ben
ngoai mang
trd thdnh
mdt
khau
cua
mgng;
va hai la
tff
mat
khau
cd gia tri gia
tang thap
chuyen
len
(ndng
cdp,
upgrading)
bg
phan
CO
gid tri gia
tdng
cao hon,
hoac
tff
nang
cap de cd gia tri gia
tang
cao ban

te cu
la
cd
gang
di
chuyen ngudn
Iffc
tff khu
vffc
$635(8+9/2010)
QUAN
LY
KINH TE
^
ill ii lii
NGHIEN
CIJ^
• TRAP
001
XAY
DUNG MO HlNH PHAT
TRI^N
KINH TE VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY DEN 2020
ndng nghiep truyen thdng
(cd
nang suat
thap) sang
khu
vffc cdng nghiep hien
dai

gidi
dang trong thdi
ky
chuyen
ddi
sang
xa
hdi
hau
cdng nghiep,
khu
vffc nang suat
cao
bay gid
khdng
chi la
cdng nghiep
ma
bao
gdm ca khu
vffc dich
vu
dffa tren
cd
sd khoa
hgc -
cdng nghe hien
dai,
dang
chiem

rat
cao va
dieu quan trpng
la khi gan ket
vao chudi
gia tri
toan
ciu,
san
xuat ndng
nghiep khdng
chi cdn la ndi san
xuat
ra
cac
san
pham
cd gia tri gia
tang thap.
Nhff
vay la,
cung
vdi
dich chuyen
cd cau
nganh
vi
md (tff
ndng nghiep sang cdng
nghiep

ngin
chinh
la
nhd
vao mdt
phan quan trgng
tff
nhffng
chinh sach thuc
day
dich chuyen
cjp
cau
theo each tiep
can nay.
Nhffng nghien cffu
ve cac
cdng
ty
hien
dai
cdn cho
thay, nhffng
nam
1970
trd ve
trffde,
cac
cdng
ty

san
xuat
va
tang
so
ngffdi
tieu dung,
net dae
trffng
cua thi
trffdng
ngffdi ban. Nhffng tinh hinh
da ddi
khac,
tff
sau
thap
ky 70; cac
cdng
ty
hien
dai
thu
lgi
nhuan
chu yeu tff
viec
doi mdi sdn
pham (innovation
of

kinh doanh
mai.
Bang
each
nay,
ngffdi
ta
khdng
cin
phai
md
rdng
san
xuat, tham
chi cdn thu hep quy
md
san
xuat, nhffng
lgi
nhuan
thu
dffge
van
ldn
ban.
Day la
dieu
mdi ve
chat
cua

xuat
ra ben
ngodi, sang nhdng
nUdc
kem
phdt trien
han,
trong
khi lgi
gidm
bdt quy mo d
cong
ty me.
Toan
ciu
hoa khien
cho he
thdng
san
xuat
va
phan
phdi dffge chuyen
ra ben
ngoai, trong
khi
cac TNCs
chi tap
trung
nim

thdng
san
xuat
va
phan phd'i
tff eae
TNCs
khi
tham
gia vao
qua trinh toan
eiu
hoa. Sff bat ddi
xffng
ve phan chia
lgi
nhuan trong
he
thdng
toan
ciu
khien
mot sd hgc gia
phffdng
Tay
gpi la "sff
phan biet chung
tdc ve mat
kinh
te",

nhff
mot
trong
:' ig
nguyen
tie
CP
ban.
Kinh nghiem
1 sff eua bat ky
QUAN LY KINH
TE
$635(8+9/2010)
XAY DUNG MO HiNH
PHAT
TRIEN KINH
ji
VIET NAM TRONG THdl KY OEN 2020
NGHIEN ClJfU
-
TRAO 001
[^ii
mdt nffdc CNH mudn nao cung deu gan
vdi yeu to' qud'c te vdi tff
each
la mpt dgng
Iffc,
mdt ngudn
Iffc
phat trien, mpt cai

nay khdng cho thay mdt vi du nao nhff
vay. Vi vay, dfft khoat phai md cffa, hpi
nhap;
trffde
het la
cin
hai hda hda cac ca
che chinh sach theo thdng le qudc te de
cung phat trien.
Nhffng quan diem phat trien neu ra
dffa tren viec danh gia mdt
each
tdng
quat "kinh te Viet Nam dang ddng
trude
mot
khde
ngogt" cua tien trinh phat trien
sau 20 nam ddi mdi va md cffa; de tiep
tuc hanh trinh chinh phuc nhffng muc
tieu phat trien cao han, "can cd cai
each
toan dien de lam tien de cho giai dpan
phat trien ben vffng. Cai each toan dien
cd nghia la xay dffng mpt he thd'ng cp che
hoan chinh hPn, quy md rdng hpn va phffc
tap nhffng vffng chae so vdi giai dpan
tang trffdng ban
diu.
Dac biet, khi kinh

thii
ba, Nxb Giao
due.
Ha Noi.
. Mark Shousen (2007), The Big Three in
Economics. M.E. Sharpe, Armonk, New
York. London, England 2007.
• Phdt trien con ngudi - Tic quan niem den
chien
luge
vd hanh dgng, NXB Chinh tri
Quoc gia, Ha Npi, 1999.
• Korea Nuclear Energy Foundation - KNEF,
2008.
+ Harvard University - John F. Kennedy
School Government -
+ Chuong trinh chau A:
Lua
chon Thanh
cong Bai hoc tff Dong A va Dong Nam A
cho tuong lai cua Viet Nam - Mot khuon
khd chinh sach phat trien kinh te - xa hoi
cho Viet Nam trong giai doan 2011 - 2020.
• Bui The Cudng, "Ky nguyen dan so' vang ii
Viet Nam: mot dai
lugng
trong bai toan
phat trien?"
• Hoi thao "Chien
luge

TE
^