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| |
Ancur,,rrrvr
No.
74
ll
I |
$'iI rhc
Seaucl
lo a
\.isr:]
Srudios Movie Bc Profitrblc?
This m:rlxzi.c
ir(iclc prcdicr5
rhrr rlrc scqucl

rudicnc€, not
just
to mcmbcrs
oI
tl)is
loc
jq
. If so, iI s€cms
Ioolhard) lo
make
lny
prcdictions
abour thc
sequel's
Scncral
popularjF'bascd ot
thc
apprrent intcrcsts of ooc communiq.
ln addition, tbe a4lumenl dcpends on the rssumpdon
!hx!
rhe
books'
populariry
is duc.o thcir cha!'rctcrs. Ye! the.rSumcnt
docs not
rulc out
oLhcr
possiblc rc$ons for thcir
topulariq',
such as

wel]
disappoini
a( rhc box-omcc,
dcspirc ihc
succcss of
lhc
books
al]d $c
fi.rst movic. Evcn
if the scqucl contains tlc s.fnc ch ?c!ers, this fcit\rre
in its€lJ rniEhr
not
sullicc io draw la!8e
xudicnces
Consumcr irlc.esl ir
rhesc cheflcter5
miBn
alrcadl
be
saliatcd, or thc scqucl mi8hr simplt no! be
xs
Sood
a5 rhc
lirst
movic
ard
*)c books. ln either cvcn!.
rhc etrhor's
predicdon mighl
very

m.ighi
tufn oul to bc
popular
bur urprofi
I!b)c.
ln sum, the
predjcdon
j5
brscd olx scanr
cvidence
allcl unproven
.lsumptions rd
js
thclcfdre Bnlamount
to merc specu.ladoo.
Beforc
alrceulS ihal thc sequel
B'iLLbc
popuiar, ict atonc
profiLabie, I
would
requirc
bcrcr
proof
that
wharcvcf
fextucs
aicaq'-rt for tlc bopks
poPulatjry io-da
.also

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IIF
H

this
prccliction. rhc
aurhor cncs thc
coll2psc
of Comp3n)'
a' a
pioneer
].rld formcr
giant
in
this 6cld
^*'hcn
childrcn
Eres'
lired
of
its
Ptoducis
ln
further
supPofl
of this
Prcdiction,
thc autlror
rersons
lhil
demind
for
comPan]
A's

B's
producrs, it is
uddr to infcr
that
the formcr
is
atrriburible
'
solel,v
to thc hn€r.
Thcre
2re a myrixd of
other
possible contdbuting
catses
of
Bt
collapse-n
ging
from musSemcnI'problcms
tc! rc8ulatoD
clrangcs
tp incicasirg
competition.
lf it tums out
that ComPxn-!
B s
coliapse
wxs
not

products
lppeat in
"so
man\"
American
homcs
lccomPlishcs
littlc toq'ard showing
wrning
demand
for
jrs
Products
lct
alonc
toward showiiS
thlt thc comPan!
will
fiil
To be8'in
vith
the term
'so
mtn]'
is loo
vxgue to bc sBlisticxll-v
mcxringful
Even
if b! so
mxn\'"

like\' Company
A
witl fail
'
Even
zls
firin8,
for
the
sake
ofargumenl,
thar demmd
for Compan)
A s
producls is neail]' ex.hausted.
this
facl
vould no! ncccss^nl)r
spcll
tn€
demisc
of
Company A-cven
rf
rt did for Comp'nl'
!
For
all
we
knos

i,. frct scn-cd
lo
r:rmish
its
lons-tcfin
public im:rgc.
Tlrc iutbor must
also sho\'tlrit
dlis comP:rn)-rs
lilch
(o
liolxtc i(s orvo codc
and ihat !h(
Yiohlion
would bc likel)
to do
long-tcrm htrrn
to i(s
Pllblic
imigc. To motc fr]lli
dcrcrnrinc
tlr( likclihood
of
slch
bi.m.
I
*'ould nt(d Io comP.fc
Ihis comprLnl
s
Prospcctive

mosr
lii<cl)
cnlrancc
this compan] s
Ptrblic
image
Pcrrso,'s
,
\t dfi'q ShttLrfol
tbc
GI?E/GIAT
T.SIS
.u"'u.pctnot.com
E:: I
Pcc
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rt
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uoi
s^Vssl
J]dl
tvs
lil
Ancuurm
Rel'e.sirtg
rcsult
in forcing
thcm
our of bDsh(ss-:t
rcsrrll thit
is clcrrl) at odds
silh
rhc
Foxl
of.nsuring
srrblc
cir.u\
pri.cs lor consunrc.s.
Finrll\'.

rcauhlions
on
Srovcrs,
tlrc
xtithor
musr sufpl! b.rrcr
f!oof
of rn upu.ud rrend rn
rll ctru:fnrir
Priccs
olrhc
growcrs' accouDIabiliq'for
thxl ltend, and of
,r trul) erccssivc
profi( for Ibc
growcrs as a rcsult of thrl
lrend. A
propcr assessmcnr of
the sudror's
rccomm€ndation
would rcquirc a rcliable stxtisdcal
studl compa.inS
cirus
Frowcrs
costs
witb
ihc
prices thq bxle ch:rr8cd ovcr
tllc hsl dccadc
and

ediro.ia-l concludcs
that local lclcvision
channel
KMT\'should
sbjft
jts
programmjng
focus !o
fming issucs
in ordcr lo
sdmulate
KMTV
advcnising appljcaljons,
wlich dec[ncd
in numbcr
lasl
vcar. Thc ?utlor bascs
this conclusion on.a repon
bY
l nearb)'ro\tns
iclcvision sr2tion,
KOOP Ihat
advenisinS lpPlications
to KOOP
irlcrcascd in
numbe|qrhen
KOOP rook sirnrlat
rction. Assurning
Lhai KOOP
s r€Pon is

rs thesc miSh! explxin
$; surge
in aPplicrrions.
Thus,
rhe
aur}lor should
cmul:tjrs !iOOP
s
pro8i:mmns.

Asidc
from.whethcr"
rOOe s
.liogrammlng
'change
was in facl
rcsponsiblc
for
(he
incrcasc
in number of
aPPlcaljons
io KOOP'
$e
€djroria-l's
author
a5sumes withoul
iustificltion
that
Xli{Tv

othcr
Problcm
with
tbc
argument
is ils implicatjon
thit thc
proposed chao8c
is tb. on\'
s'r)
K1\4Tv
cxn
sdmulxtc
advcnisin8
ulL!.fictc60B.co'n
P.tnso,
s
'
\vrltin!
Skltb
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tbc
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n)ilhl t'(,r
b(
rcprcscnti{n
(
of t)<cr'(lrinkcrs
gcnc.ill). cst)ccirll\'
if tl)t
Froup
cons(iturcs
x
smxll
ponion
of
thc b.cririnking
popul2tion- l'cl rbc
iu!hors conclusion
rclics
on rhe
irsumptioo lhit thcr xrc. lf iI lu.ns
oLrr. for
(xrnrjt(,
tlrit MIl]J
!isnors
nrc cspcci:rll) cilori('conscious. or
csPccixllr

of bccririnl,itS
consurncrs
Scneitly.
ln
conclusion,
ro dclermine
q'hether
or
not dre) should
bfcw low{alorie
bc€r,
other
breweries shouij
not relr on tbc dubious
rcsults
of a sitglc,
problematic
su.qct.
lnstcxd, thev should comparc
thc lol:rl
mi.kcl dcmand
for loq,'calorie bcer
qith
rhe currcn! supp\'
and iry Io
assess
thc cxrcnr of
bnrd
loyalq among Io\et:rlorjc bcer
drinl'i€rs.

Snecillcdl\'.
the xuthor
Poinls
out
thrl
com studcnrs
cim
hi8her
gndes 1nd rre morc Likel.\'to
atlend collcS€
and thal Acom
rcporrslcss
absenlccism
xnd t-ardillcss as
well as fes'€r disciPline
ptoblcms.
This
'rAumcnr sulfcrs frbm scvelil
rcasoninE nr*s.;hich
roicthcr rcnder
rhc cdirorial
whollv
uoconvincing.
To
bc8in
wirh,
$c
cditorial does no! indicare
how
lonS Acom s

lzre
'
mjght still be
due io or})er fxctors,3!cb
as tughcr
ltudcnt
inlellgence
levcls'
hiSher{ualiq'
instruction:
or
Srcaler
supPon
(|!nlnci2l
or
o$erwisc)
from
parcnts.
'lqirlrout
consid€rin8
and eliminarin8
thcse
and al
othcr fcasiblc
cxplanations
for ihe comPa.advc
acadcmic
succcss
of Acom
studcnrs,

oficn
lt,Acom
xs at Bivvic$i
iJso.
the repons
vould
PrQfId!
-
L\Ds.PctdsoB.coh
Pctcrsor's
|
\vnlint Sklllt
tor
tbc
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3rotrl ro
spooqroq!€r)u
r{!s
q

S,^YSS!
: iit!
ill
rssrrnrprion.
For
jrtl
$(
kno\'.
rtrcrc
mighr bc
othcr
Dossiblr
uscs
Ior rl)os(
buildints rl)!r would
profid(
ncr
cconomic
bcncnrs ro
rhc
cin,cxcccorrp
tiro:c
of r)r,
fir(,t,^<rt
prr,
.
pcrl,rDs
rlrcsc h ild,nJr.
$,hictr
rh( iurhor

justifr
thc proposcd ptan
bascd on rhc
facr dtar
thc
buitdings;rrc
old.
As for
$e xurhor
s dcfcnsc agiinsl
conccms
for hisroric
prcscn,arron.
rbe aurhor's
anatoFn
to
Arhcns and
Jcrusatcm is
dubious rt
bcsr. ln :rtl
likclihood,
drosc
rs,o cirics
borsr
3
Erc:t
numbcr
of
vcn.
old buitdinls,

is
possiblc
rhxt io
ArIens
and
Jcr]ls.tem.
old
buitdings
arc dcmoLisbcd
on\,
whcn
rhe). arc
shown !o
providc
no
mar8inal
economic r5tuc
or if thc). pose
a
signitcant
public
srfcr)
rlucai xnd
rh:

ncirhcr
condirion
js
t.ue
of

Rivcf
Ciq' should approve
drc proposal
rcsrs
on
thc
assumpiion
rhar tlcrc
arc no
'
\.iable
ahemarive
mcans
of achievin8
rhis
end.
yer
rhc aurhor
fals K)
subsBnrirrc
i.tris :rssumpLioo.
Common
scnse tells m€
fitr rhcre lle
a hosr
o,
orhc.
\\'rys
River
Cir,i, mj8ht

.
reasotunS
and
scanr crjdcncc.
tnsLcad
of rclyinS
on a
poor
anatog),
bclwccn
tuvcr
Cir] :md-rwo
ancicor
cilics.
rhe Aurhor
should
sbow_by compnrinS
ru-
possiblc
means
of s(rengtncninS
Rjver
Cir\'s €conordy
(bcluding
saving
rhc
old buildings
ard
purring
rbem

poliq
for irs protessiond
su-tf.
T}lc ncs'poLq.,
like
rc currcnl
one,
would
provide
four
\?cadon
wccks
Pcr
Yeari
but rhc ncs policy
voold
limjr
anl
v:carion
ro
onc weck.
\vriting
Shllls
for
tbc
GRE/GUAT
Tests
!\1'u.tct.rsoB.cort
r.tn!''
fuour!

r
rD
.i'gjcrrrue'
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ro
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r5^lrsrurqr
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asrnoJ
to s
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rr. .)1t/
Jt4
sltt:ts;kluJ4|
,
s,uosrrt.

nrcmo.
drc
dirc(
an,icipalcs
2n
incrcasc
in,.,.,;I 1,: _:11,,1i.::::,:;'Ji:l
Jx,:i
ro ,
lx.g€r
rhcarcr
Th( direcror
rhcn
.ccomn)to(ts
r\,o
cou.ses
oI xcrion
rr
order
"ro
tuflhcr
increas€ profit5,:
(l)
producin8
pj:rls
rh:rr
havc
b€€n rnosr
successfut
in

drccror's
a.gumcnr
unconvrncinS
bcc;ruse
jr
rcsts
on
numcrous
unsubsllnLiarcd
assumprjons,
3s
discusscd
betoR,.
As a
Llrrcshold
marter,
rh€
clirccror,s
cxpcctrlion
of incr€ased
rcvcnues
duc.to.
ar
incrcrsc
in
sexring
ctpaciq.
assumcs
lhilr
rl.rere

,enrii8
t}lc t.r.,Gr:
rhcarcr
excccds
rhc
cosl
of renring
x
sniljer
onc.
Tuming
ro Lhc
firsr
prescrjplion
for
cntrancinS
proltts,
rhc
dirccror,s
rarionrle
tor ir
rcsls
on
rhc assumprion
dlxr
rhe
tnsres
anct tnrcresrs
ofthcarcr,
gocrs

producin'
thc ptivs
".
*.
,n.;:::l;1ll[:J'j
il;:'::,f*"
"
TumjnS
nexr
to rhc
second
. :!D,
werl
conruse
cause
_.
.*liT"i'Ii3ijli:.J:,,T,,"5 fif',tl
bcciuse
Adlib,s
fundmising
director
has wdrked
for
,\dtib
Ou.i"g,b.
,"
rlrne
period
rhat
corpo.are

can
convince
mc rhar
thc
rvo pr€scriptions
a.e
likc\'!o
incrcasc
FfC's profirs,
rhe
direcior
concludcs
roo hastity
that
cbese
prescriprions
.lrc
rhe
bcsr
mcms
of achrevmg
fTC,s
dcsrred profir
Aolls
Pcrhrps
onc
or morc
othcr
corrses
of

nnal
analysis,
rhc
r.ccornn;dation
U ,";,i.*.0
as
ir sunds.
To
botsrer
ir,
t}re
dirccror
mjghr
conducr
a scjendfic
survev
of arca
t})crrerSocrs
ro dcrcrmine
rhe
sons
of ETC proclucrions
area
rcsidcnrs
zre
most
tilJy
tir
attend,
and

tltttS
lurtual
sB2J
Jvl(2fiU'
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$N3nn3dv
1v!,,,19
.tvJ3tjlo
oz
aloJ
S VSSJ
ttdt^tvs
Ilr th( siorc
iokco. thc chrir fails t(' consider
thc costs of
exPrnclinS
Omcg;r's
music-rhcmp\'progranr.,AccommodxtinS:rclditionrl
studcnrs miSl)t
rcquir(:rddition;rl
cgLripmcnl, ficulr\-
membefs.:rnd
evcD frcilitics.
Such
cosls
mi8hl
vc^ wcll
ouN,ciSh nrxr8inNl
rc\'cntrc.
in
Nhiclr
cxsc lhc
ch,ri.s
proposxl
s'ould

injormarion
about thc
rcPLrmrion
of OmeSa s mnsic-thcEpt
pralram :lmoog cmplo)'ers
of mus;c
.heripists
and
(2)
rc[able
music-themp] cmPloJ'men!
projcctions for
reccnl
colle8c
gndurtcs. especiauv in the
vicitiq'
of
Omega.
To full)' assess
ihc
chair's
uldmr.c claim
(i.e.,
dlat
an cxPmdcd music'tir€.rP)'
Progr?m
will
improvc Omcgi s
financial sL1tus), I
would nced