CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO
06-2010
KINH TE-XA HOI
^'
OUAN
HE KINH TE VIET NAM
^
HOA KY
^'
TRIEN VONG
HdP
TAC
N
gay 12 thang 7 nam 1995,
Viet Nam va Hoa Ky chinh
thiic
thiet lap quan he ngoai
giao,
va lich
sii
dang mci ra mot giai
doan phat trien mdi trong quan he
giQa hai
nifdc.
Quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa
Ky 15 nam qua, ttf khi Hoa Ky bo cam
van chong Viet Nam ngay 03/02/1994,
thiic hien cong nhan ngoai giao va
binh
thUdng
hoa quan he (12/7/1995)

Thiet Sofn
Vien Nghien
ciiu
Chdu My
bay ba van de: (1) Ve quan diem quan
he hdp tac Viet Nam va Hoa Ky; (2)
Dii
bao trien vong quan he kinh te
Viet Nam - Hoa Ky; va (3) Dinh
hifdng
chinh
sach giai phap quan he
kinh te' Viet Nam - Hoa Ky,
nhim
gdp
phan neu trien vong quan he kinh te
giiia hai niidc trong 10-15 nam tdi.
I. Quan diem quan he hcfp tac
Trong 15 nam qua, Viet Nam da cd
nhiing
biidc
tien quan trong trong
quan he vdi Hoa Ky: tii cam van den
thiet lap quan he ngoai giao, ky ket
BTA, tii kim ngach xuat nhap khau
khong dang kd dau nhiing nam 1990,
den 15 ty USD hien nay giiia hai
niidc
Tuy nhien, 15-20 nam tiep
theo se c6 nhiing

ring,
mudn hdp tac
lau dai, c6 hieu qua va tin cay lan
nhau, chiing ta can biet quan diem ciia
Hoa Ky ve nhiing ldi ich va muc tieu
cua Hoa Ky trong viec thiet lap quan
he song phifdng vdi Viet Nam va nhiing
van de dd
ciia
Viet Nam vdi Hoa Ky.
2.
Quan diem cua Hoa Ky
Theo cac tai lieu cua Hoa
Ky\
chiing
toi thay Hoa Ky co cac quan diem ve
Icfi
ich vd muc tieu cua Hoa Ky trong quan
he
v&i
Viet Nam
nhif
sau:
Nhiing nhan to' tao nen ldi ich ciia
Hoa Ky gom: quan he
thiidng
mai va
dau
tU;
cong ddng ngifdi My goc Viet tai

Ben canh nhiing nhan dinh tren day,
con
CO
rat nhieu danh gia khac ve quan
he Hoa Ky - Viet Nam, chang han,
thang 10/2009, Ngoai trifdng Hoa Ky
Hillary Clinton da tai khing dinh vdi
Phd Thu tifdng Pham Gia Khiem ve
quan diem va cam ket ciia Hoa Ky tang
cifdng
va lam sau rong them quan he
vdi Viet Nam (ve an ninh, thifdng mai
dau
tif,
nhan quyen, hdp tac nhan dao,
chorig
thien tai ); thang 4/2010, tai
Dai hoc Ngoai thifdng Ha Noi,
Thii
trifdng Ngoai giao My Robert D.
Hormats phat bieu y kie'n ve mot so'
van de lien quan den quan he Hoa Ky -
Viet
Nam^,
da noi, Hoa Ky cam ket
tang cifdng moi quan he
doi
tac vdi Viet
Nam, coi day la cd
sei

Trong tifdng lai, Hoa Ky mud'n tie'p tuc
phat trien va
md
rong
moi
quan he vdi
Viet Nam de giiip Viet Nam tiep tuc
ddng vai trd tich
ciic nhii
mot nen kinh
te dang noi va la
doi
tac kinh kinh
doanh co trach nhiem.
Co the cho rang, quan diem ciia
phia Hoa Ky la dang thiic day, hifdng
tdi va cam ket phat trien hdn niia mdi
quan he hdp tac tich
ciic
va hiiu nghi
vdi Viet Nam.
CHAU
MY
NGAY NAY
SO 06-2010
2.
Quan
dietn
cua Viet Nam
Co the cho rang, nhiing quan diem

gidi,
va hifdng tdi mot quan he hiiu
nghi lau dai, ben viing, ton trong lan
nhau, ciing co ldi, khong anh hudng
den mot ben thii ba nao khac.
Qua trinh bay nhiing noi dung cd ban
ve quan diem cua Hoa Ky va cua Viet
Nam, chiing toi cho
ring,
hai ben da c6
nhan thiic va quan diem hdp ly ve
moi
quan he song phifdng, tao cd
sei
phap ly
md rong quan he kinh te toan dien vdi
nhau mot
each
nang dpng, hieu qua va
ben viing. Viet Nam
c&n
chii dong, nang
dong hdn niia trong viec thie't lap va md
rong cac quan he vdi Hoa Ky hien tai va
trong 15 nam tdi.
Y kien nhan xet cua chung toi
la:
vi lpi ich ciia minh, Viet Nam va
My da
CO

so'
dii
bao
nhif
sau.
II.
Dvf
bao trien vong quan he
kinh te
De mci rong quan he kinh
te
vdi Hoa
Ky vi
sii
phat trien cua Viet Nam, trifdc
tien chiing ta can thay difdc nen kinh
te Viet Nam se phat trien
nhii
the nao
de hdp tac vdi Hoa Ky.
1.
Trien
vgng
phdt trien mo
hinh kinh
teViet
Nam
Theo chiing toi, Viet Nam
c&n
c6

Dang Cdng san Viet Nam
chii
trifdng
phat trien mot nen kinh te thi trifdng
so
06-2010
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
theo dinh hifdng xa hdi
chii
nghia, theo
chiing toi, la theo nghia tren day, va
chii
trifdng do can difdc nhan manh hdn
niia tai Dai hdi Dang lan
thii
XI sap tdi.
Chiing toi
dii
bao quan he kinh te Viet-
My chinh tren mo hinh phat trien kinh
te do cua Viet Nam, vi neu mo hinh
khac,
hoac noi dung cua mo hinh khac
di,
viec hdp tac se khdng hieu qua.
2.
Kich bdn trien
vpng
phdt
trien quan he kinh te Viet-My

Viet Nam.
Ben cgnh do, ve ly thuyet,
vin
co the
c6 mot hiidng
thif
ba phat trien ngoai
mong muo'n trong quan he kinh te giiia
hai
nifdc,
do la hudng trien vgng phdt
trien quan he kinh te song
phiicfng
giifa
hai nifdc se chgm, tri tre, do co nhieu
bie'n dong ldn,
ngUdc
chieu trong quan
he song phifdng, trong tifng nifdc, va ca
trong
bdi
canh qudc te.
Tren cd
sei
nghien ciiu va so sanh
ba hifdng phat trien quan he kinh te
Viet Nam - Hoa Ky, chiing toi cho
rang, Viet Nam can chii ddng phat
trien cac mo'i quan he hdp tac kinh
te

phat trien kinh te - xa hoi Viet
Nam va Hoa Ky, ve thiic trang va
trien vong quan he song phifdng, ve
nhiing thach thiic, nhiing kha nang,
tiem
liic,
dieu kien phat trien cua moi
nifdc va boi canh qud'c te. Nhiing nhan
te'
nay c6 the difdc trinh bay
nhif
sau.
a) Nhdn
to've
phia Viet Nam.
Hien nay, chiing ta c6 mot ye'u to'
rat thuan ldi cho dtf bao trien vong
quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky,
do
la.
Dang Cong san Viet Nam dang
chuan bi tie'n hanh Dai hoi lan thii XI.
Difdi
anh sang cua Dai hoi Dang, Viet
Nam se c6 chuan
miic
phat trien
manh me hdn chd thap ky tdi.
Chiing
tdi cho

cho
sii
phat trien cua Viet Nam.
Kinh te Viet Nam
tif
khi thiic hien
Doi mdi de'n nay da phat trien thuan ldi
hdn trifdc dd, nhUng
vin
cdn tdn dong
va gap nhieu kho khan thach thiic ldn
can
vUdt
qua. Do la nhiing van de ve
phat trien ben viing, tai chinh tien te,
lam phat, cai each doanh nghiep nha
nifdc,
khu
viic
kinh te tu nhan chifa
difdc
chii
trpng diing
miic
va binh dang,
van de lad dong va viec lam cham difdc
giai quye't, trinh do
ceng
nghe thap cua
nhieu nganh, kha nang canh tranh

nghiem ngat, khoa
hoc"
de tao the
phat trien ddng bo, lien hoan cua toan
bo nen kinh te quo'c dan mot
each
manh me va ben viing. Viet Nam
cin
chii
dong thiic
diy
quan he xua't nhap
khau triic tie'p vdi cac do'i tac My,
khong thong qua trung gian.
.;
"
'
Vdi nhiing dieu kien tren, co the
dii
doan, kim nggch xudt nhdp khdu giiia
Viet Nam va Hoa Ky se tang cao, tdc
do tang trifdng kim ngach se dat hai
con so', khdang 30-45% hang nam. Ve
xuat khau,Viet Nam van xuat sieu
sang My, cd cau mat hang va chung
loai hang hoa co nhiing thay doi so vdi
trifdc day, cac mat hang co gia tri gia
tang cao tang len, chung loai hang
hoa pheng
phii

nay co the co difdc nhd phat trien san
xuat cua cac cong ty Hoa Ky tai Viet
Nam)
Ve quan he ddu
tii:
Hoa Ky
chii
trpng
diu tif
vao Viet Nam vi thu
difdc nhieu ldi ich da trung (kinh te,
chinh tri, an ninh quoc phong, quan
he qud'c te ) va
gin sii
hdp tac phat
trien vdi Viet Nam vdi ldi ich quo'c gia
SO 06-2010
CHAU MY NGAY NAY
ciia My ci khu
viic
Dong Nam A, ciing
nhif ci
Chau A - Thai Binh Difdng.
Do
vay.
My se tang cifdng dau
tif
trong nhieu
linh
viic,

diu
tif
trung binh hang nam ciia Hda Ky
vao Viet Nam tang len se vdi hien
nay.
Teng diu tif
thiic hien tich liiy
lai cua Hoa Ky d Viet Nam de'n nam
2020 se dat khdang 30-35 ty USD,
trung
binh
hang nam khoang 3 ty
USD.
Chifa ke kha nang thu
hiit ve'n
diu tif
gian tie'p tif Hoa Ky se tang
len trong thdi ky de'n nam 2020.
Cd the ndi, theo kich ban
thii
hai,
chiing ta co the
dii
doan
diu tif
cua
My vao Viet Nam se tang len he't
siic
nhanh chdng, vi vay, Viet Nam
cin

cin
phai coi phat trien kinh te la
nhiem vu so' 1 va do do, can tap trung
toan bp
siic
manh quoc gia de khoi
phuc va phat trien kinh te mpt
each
nhanh nhat va manh nhat. My se
phai cau triic lai nen kinh te, phat
huy nhiing the manh
vo'n
cd ciia cac
nganh dting
diu
the gidi ciia My, to
chtfc
lai he tho'ng ngan hang tai
chinh, de khong the lap lai nhiing sai
lam dien ra trong nhiing nam qua,
nang cao trinh do cong nghe (chat
xam) ciia cac nganh san xuat, dieh vu
nhim
c6 kha nang canh tranh cao hdn
tren thi
triidng
quoc te va ngay tren
thi trifdng trong nifdc. Trong quan he
kinh te quoc te, My se tiep tuc
chii

nhifng Hoa Ky khong thiic hien difdc
nhiing mong muon cau triic lai nen
CHAU
MY NGAY NAY
SO 06-2010
kinh te' va to chiic lai cac moi quan he
kinh te quo'c te cua minh (co the de
nhieu nguyen nhan ma My
kheng
tap
trung
dUdc sifc
manh quoc gia). Neu
nhif
vay, nen kinh te ciia Hoa Ky lai e6
the quay trd lai gap nhiing khd khan
phiic tap nhu vtfa qua. Va quan he
kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa Ky co the rdi
vao kich ban
thii
ba khong mong mud'n.
Tuy nhien, dieu nay khe co the xay
ra: Cac gdi kich clu cua Chfnh phii Hoa
Ky da lam cho khu
viic
san xua't lay lai
din
kha nang tang trifdng, khu
viic
tai

the gidi. Trong dieu kien do, c6 the thay
trifdc, nen kinh te Hoa Ky se lay lai da
phat trien trong thdi gian tdi, nhifng
phat trien manh ye'u
nhif
the
nae
la
van de
cin
xem xet.
f
'
•' • ''
Ve
mat chinh tri vd an ninh, co the
thay, vdi xu, the phat trien ciia Hoa
Ky va chinh sach do'i ngoai ciia Chinh
quyen Obama hien nay, Hoa Ky se
khong thiic
sii
thiic hien chinh sach
doi ngoai hie'u chie'n, gay han vdi cac
nifdc khac tren the gidi trong thdi
gian
trifdc
mit.
Hda Ky se
gitt
difdc

deu
CO
ldi trifdc nhiing thach thifc cd
the se de'n trong tifdng lai).
Nhif
vay, trien vpng phat trien tich
Clic cho Hoa Ky phai la, tap trung mpt
thdi gian dai chd nhiem vu se' 1 cua
quo'c gia la on dinh va phat trien manh
me nen kinh te,
nhim
lay lai siic manh
va tang cifdng thiic
liic
diing
diu
the
gidi;
he tho'ng chinh tri vdi hai dang
Cpng hda va Dan chu va cac nhdm ldi
ich tap trung vao tang cifdng ldi ich va
siic manh kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh
que'c phdng My; co chien
lifdc
an ninh
va chfnh sach doi ngoai bao dam cho
kinh te, chinh tri, an ninh quo'c phdng
CO
mdi trifdng tich
ciic

c) Nhdn to' lien quan de'n boi cdnh
quo'c
te.
Boi canh quo'c te phu thupe phan
ldn vao
cac
nhan to' quan he quo'c te
trong viec phan chia ldi ich kinh te,
chinh tri, an ninh quo'c te va cac khu
viic,
cac nifdc ldn.
The gidi, neu c6 the ndi, sau Chien
tranh Lanh, vtfa trai qua cupe khiing
hoang ldn nha't ttf Dai khung hoang
1929-1933,
ciing
nhif
vtfa trai qua thdi
ky cang thang vdi chinh sach chd'ng
khiing bo' cua
ciiu
Tdng thdhg My G.
Bush; dong thdi the gidi ciing chifng
kie'n
sii
phat trien manh me cua cac
nifdc Trung Quec, Brazil, Nga, An Dp,
cua
sii
md rpng chau Au Cac nifdc

WTO
de md rpng quan he kinh te vdi
Hoa Ky va cac nifdc ldn khac.
C6 the ket luan
ring,
vdi kich ban
thif hai trien vpng hdp tac kinh te' vdi
Hoa
Ky
difdc neu tren, cac nhan to'
phat trien cua Viet Nam difdc danh
gia la kha thuan ldi. Viet Nam
cin
thay va tan dung dUdc nhan to' Hoa
Ky va nhan to' boi canh quoc te thuan
ldi cho phat trien trong 15-20 nam tdi.
III.
Dinh
hifdng
Chinh sach giai
phap quan he kinh te
Phat trien hdp tac kinh te vdi Hoa
Ky theo kich ban
thif
hai,
15-20 nam
tdi,
mo'i quan he Viet - My se
difa
lai

tu, chfnh sach thifdng mai
1.
Dinh hudng chung quan he
vdi Hoa Ky.
Co the cho rang, chinh sach quan
he Viet - My gan day rat ccii md, dieu
do da difdc the hien treng Hpi dam
giiia Tong thong G. Bush vdi
Chii
tich
Nguyen Minh Triet tai Washington
D.C, ngay 22/6/2007. Tong thong
G.Bush cho
ring
"Chiing toi muo'n co
quan he to't vdi Viet Nam". Dap lai,
Chu tich
nifclc
Nguyin Minh Triet da
noi:
"Hai dan toe Viet - My deu muo'n
CHAU
MY
NGAY NAY
SO 06-2010
11
hoa binh, doan ke't, va hiiu nghi phai
cung
nim
tay nhau di tdi tifdng lai"

thii
hai la quan
he Viet - My
cin
difdc thiic hien tren
tat ca cac kenh quan he va cac
linh
viic,
cac dien dan,
nhif
ta't ca cac nifdc
than thien tren the gidi quan he vdi
nhau, bao gdm: 1) Cac kenh quan he
gap gd cap cao giiia cac nha lanh dao
hai nifdc (Chinh phii, Quoc hpi va
nhanh
Tif
phap), cac nhom ldi ich, cac
doanh nghiep, gidi truyen thong, dai
hpc,
quan he giao
luu
nhan dan ; 2)
Cac mo'i quan he trong cac linh
viic
ngoai giao, kinh te, dao tao giao
due,
van hda xa hpi, an ninh chinh tri quan
sii,
khoa hpc cong nghe moi trifdng,

mgt nhdn thiic mdi theng qua qua
Chien lifdc An ninh qudc
gia®
mdi
(National Security Strategy - May
2010),
My dang thay ddi trong
each
tie'p can va tfng xii trong quan he quoc
te,
sii
dung cac bien phap doi thoai,
ling
nghe, da phifdng, hdp tac giam
cang thang, tang cifdng long tin vdi
cac nifdc va cac khu
viic
Hdn 15 ndm qua Viet Nam dd ddn
dp dung nhifng nhdn thifc mdi de
thie't lap vd phdt trien cdc quan he vdi
My. Viet Nam che
ring,
cai thien
quan he vdi My la met trong nhiing
dieu kien he't siic quan trpng de phat
trien kinh te - xa hpi va nang cao vi
the,
vai tro ciia minh tren triidng quoc
te.
Mac du My dang gap nhieu khd

ldn
nhat tai Viet Nam".
2) Theo chiing toi,
cin
cu the boa
hdn nda chu trifdng, chinh sach cua
Viet Nam treng quan he vdi Hoa Ky,
chiing phai trci thanh chfnh tho'ng va
c6 he tho'ng. Chiing toi neu mpt so' y
kien sau: (1) Ve quan diem,
cin
coi
hdp tac vdi My la nhan to' quan trpng
bac nha't, cd ban trong phat trien kinh
te - xa hpi
ciia
Viet Nam, (2) Ve chinh
sach, trong quan he vdi My, phai coi
My la do'i tac chie'n
lUdc
quan trpng
bac nhat cua Viet Nam; nhanh chong
ky ket FTA vdi My; cac quan he khac
cin
dupc nang
tim
tifdng
xifng,
hdp ly
de bao ve ldi ich phat trien cua Viet

trong phat trien kinh te - xa hpi cua
Viet Nam, ddng thdi ciing coi trpng cac
mo'i quan he vdi cae ben thtf ba khac.
Vi thiic te hien nay My da va se chie'm
ty trpng ldn bac nhat trong cdc yeu td
ddu vdo cua nen kinh te Viet Nam:
Vo'n (vo'n FDI difng hang
diu
d Viet
Nam, vo'n
diu tif
gian tie'p se rat ldn);
Cong nghe, may mdc thie't bi, bi quye't
quan ly, dao tao tri thtfc va
cdc
yeu td
ddu ra: thi trifdng tieu thu hang hda
dtfng hang
diu
ciia Viet Nam.
, -\ :
Vi dinh hiidng chinh sdch: Vdi
quan diem tren,
cin
nang
tim
quan
he,
nhif
da difdc khang dinh qua cac

sang quan he doi tac, cung co ldi.
b) Chinh sdch hdp tdc: todn dien.
Trong Unh
viic
kinh te: nhanh
chdng tien tdi ky ke't FTA vdi My,
diy
manh xua't nhap khau,
diu
tu,
chuyen giao cong nghe mdi, xanh
sach. Vi an ninh qudn
sii,
chinh tri
_CHAUMY
NGAY NAY
SO 06-2010
13
can dupc nang
tim
tifdng xtfng, hdp ly
de bao ve ldi fch phat trien ciia Viet
Nam. Ve cdc
linh viic
khdc: cdn
diidc
md rgng: hdp tac trong bao ve moi
trifdng, phat trien nang Iifdng sach va
phat trien ben viing, xda doi giam
ngheo, dao tao va giao due, y te, van

anh hifdng den Viet Nam, ne'u ndi den
nhiing anh hifdng tieu
ciic.
c) Nguyen tdc hdp tdc: Trong hdp
tac toan dien
cin
ton trpng nhiing
nguyen
tic
tin cay
lin
nhau, khong ne
tranh, thing
thin
trao ddi cac van de
va bie't nhan
nhifdng
(nhiing van de
chifa c6
sii
nhat tri), ton trpng dpc lap
dan tpc, chu quyen quo'c gia, cdng viec
npi bp, hai ben cung cd ldi va khong
xam hai ldi fch ciia ben thii ba trong
dieu kien toan clu hoa va hpi nhap
quo'c te hien nay.
Cd
the
cho
ring,

trifdng Ngoai giao
Hoa Ky phu trach cac van de Kinh te, nang
lUdng,
nong nghiep tai Dai hoc Ngoai
thUdng
Ha Noi, 12/4/2010, Website DSQ
Hoa Ky tai Viet Nam.
3) Xem them "Quan he hdp tac kinh te Viet
Nam - Hoa Ky" - De tai khoa hoc cap Nha
nu6c,
Ma so
KX.Ol.03/06-10.
4) Xem them "Quan he hdp tac kinh te Viet
Nam - Hoa Ky" - De tai khoa hoc cap Nha
nif6c,
Ma so
KX.01.03/06-10,
phan noi ve
cac kich ban
dii
bao trien vong phat trien
quan he kinh te Viet Nam - Hoa ky.
5) Xem US National Security Strategy, May
2010,
White House, Washington DC,
<www.whitehouse.gov.>.