biến động thị trường vàng ở việt nam và vai trò quản lý độc quyền của ngân hàng nhà nước việt nam - Pdf 23


TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC NGOẠI THƯƠNG

 !
Sinh viên nghiên cứu khoa học Trường Đại học Ngoại thương 2014
" #

 !"
#$
$%&#%&'()*%+),
'&$!()*+,
MỤC LỤC
LỜI MỞ ĐẦU 1
NỘI DUNG 3
CHƯƠNG I: CƠ SỞ LÝ LUẬN VỀ QUẢN LÝ VÀNG CỦA NHÀ NƯỚC 3
1. Những vấn đề chung về quản lý vàng của Nhà nước 3
-/-/0)!!12&34 3!5262& 3
-/,/!7 82&69!: 4
2. Thị trường vàng 7
,/-/0)!!1 7
,/,/4 3!5 8;<=2& 7
,/>/)  85!;<=2& 7
,/./) !1?2@9! ABC 8
>/,/$D 2&2&D E2& 9
4. Các nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến thị trường vàng 11
./-/!);3DFGHIJKL 11
./,/!)E 12
././$D  E2& 14
./*/M;NO! 17
./P/QR?) 17
./S/) TU9) 17

M]) !61
DTNH
^R!U!
DN
!1?
EUR
Di
GTGT
!);!+
JPY
Dj"$a
NHNN
$T&&<Y
NHTW
$T&<A
NK
$a?9b
PBOC
$T&TT'
TCTD
k c M@
WGC
'!3D2&:!Y!
DANH MỤC BẢNG VÀ BIỂU ĐỒ
Bảng 1.1#f`<Y !)2&I <M?M2&:L#
Biểu đồ1.2:KCF<l9!) 2&B 8 ) <Y ":!Y!
Biểu đồ 1.3:^2&:!Y!
Biểu đồ 1.4:<AW!)F2&!)2&!!3R,,,-,
Bảng 1.5:!:3 8!)E2&!)2&!!3R,m,->
Bảng 1.6:$D E2&\+, ,->

LỜI MỞ ĐẦU
C!W]UW)&! 8F; ]w(2&3%2!7dWx3=!
]U <=!/\2!7F&?<A!1)(3:`2&3<l ]w@O!
!6@ 3M 9) #F&3D]c (]w@Fy2 `:(3!1w(`
!; (3E A2&F&9"^&`6U 8<=!T/M22a`(
 E262&F&dFY2&z!!sB!:";<=2&36a3<l !6]
WT\$&<Y 2& ) &3E</
=!!E3T`(!)2&B!:3d<=2&9hp!61F@`(
C<_3:?)!59!: 8 ) <Y /)  AWB&?C!Np
Nh( Tq <Y 9!3< )  M]) 2&B!1?)? !1?;<=(<Y3:
@ !" 8z!WU !<#Bk;<=(?)!59!:(9!6 :FR
?)({R!!1$( )  M])  8$&<Y (2+BC?)?Fa2|3W)
&!12& E?C!3!6 v] ?}l?2Y!\=!9 ~<
?)!59!:<Y /T`2|F&B&!)9%(T`!6 O!2& E %F=!!C!
3)?9x (])]U35;<=2&R3!1WC/
d363 W`62&!: 8$T&$&<Y 3O3<l  ) <Y ":
!Y!&!6=!!!" c/R!!1$( M]) 3 W`62&!:Y!
!sA+("2| 7DR!!6Fa/R!!s3&9!:}
+,->(>B&!Fa262d363 W`6WCFX2&3O3<l 3<(2&3T`
~F&36&!3<l !6]!2!"F x353E<!" c2!:9%Fa=!
!W/
2a`(%3OF x36&!
 !"#$35!" c/
&!!" c9x  %B@ 3M  M#
cd(kW262&;<=2&
c!(F&•2!7WCFX3 W`6 8$T&$&<Y !1$
-
cB(36Nd]U!C!?)?€&!12!7WCFX;<=2& 8
$T&$&<Y !1$
U!<l!" cF&]B!:3 8;<=2&2&2!73 W`6WC

l?9!2Y! ) 9!FR!9) 35+"3 c9: d#l?9!2Y!3D 
&3eA(l?9!2Y!]qR&NF)(l?9!2Y! &M/& 7 %
M|3!1(|!1dU(9B;) 3B_!99M2&?EFY) dI v
%BR 2&3DF&^ d|3!1UAL/$%9B;C<_264)x B_!
!1(3b(N`2&E: )  d+7/2a`(%M l?35R!62&F&3D
]c /
A2;3F<=#'!1`(3A2;3F<= 8 ) <Y 9)  ~3<l 3
F<=p ) 1W` b9) /ƒ ) <Y [<A<!1$(
fU ('&fU ({2&2& ) 9!FR!3)WX<=3<l MB€FRIF<lL(4
3D T( v(F`/";<=:!Y!(2&3<l 3p3A2; pI„L4 `
 p/@5#
-9…,P(PPPFR…,PP(PP v…,PPP(P?T…,PPPPF`IF!L
'`-FRI- T`2&L…>S(*
- v2&…>(S*
ƒT†(^9!FR!WX!:(3)WXFR!3<l Mp3A2;0I0L/
thU!W1!^3A2;xF<l@WU :K#-0…(,…,
I…*(>,F`L
>
$<2a`(pM)2&-c F&2&,.0 %xF<lF&.(m2&`"
d/
)?)0(#;*B:B,0
)?4?!' C
Y!^34 M!" % 8%(F; ]w2&3<l ]w@F&!61(
&!2& 73<l ]w@d!6Fy2  8  ]U<F&]c (
} Fy2 `:(M ?b2&3DU(3!1w{`!"(B&!!" c
]‡ v*2!7k!Ba 82&3U!2Y!69!:#
1.2.1. Thứ nhất, vàng đóng vai trò là một loại tiền tệ trên thế giới
" :F<)19!FR!( v %2&_&FR!!613<l ]w
@?kB!:2&FT&!d/R 2&3D v3<l }35`:9!!:2&}
F&!61/KU;FT&! 8!62& %3<l F&2& %^34 M<2!1

& %53<l  d^<Y!!6R#R3D]c IT` `6(|(Fq (
27(9`"!L(R2&!:/$D&!`"2&9?C!F&2R(2!1 9!
) 2& ~4?!69%9+(B_!2a`9! %]9!:262&&!R
!)2&]‡ %N<Y+!)/$<2a`(2!1  d^2&!•??721<Y ]d
!) 83D!63!69!1FR?) (BC&!);&<=!^a3<l /
1.2.3. Thứ ba, vàng là một phương tiện DTNH
$' 8WU !F&&!]C 8&<Y 3<l  d!^<Y!R ) 3D!6
R()!?!:3<l ?)&B_!M?8 )  <=WU ":!Y!(2&2&€
@ 3M  )WU :4 zl!);3D!6WU !/&F&]U
) c $' 8&<Y (< vD2&9U!(R2&2&!:/
05\] :3pV](2&2&F_&!FR!&!]CWx
3U!2Y!$' 8WU !/p) )Y!d 8V d`(M3:)
-,Z,->(k^2&WU ! 8:!Y!3Rc >-/u->(*d/~p^F!1
kl? 8V(Nh264^2&WU !(GH2|F&<Y 3c3E:!Y!2Y!
c ^2& Mc #m/->>(*d2&rF1^2&$'#S-(Sˆ(3c
*
c!F&c 2Y!c ^2& Mc #>/>mS(-d2&rF1^2&
$'#Pm(Sˆ////
1.2.4. Thứ tư, vàng là một trong những lựa chọn để đa dạng hoá danh mục đầu tư
R)@ 3E<]‡!•?!C!58!Fz ) !1
WC/) c U!<d353R)@ F&3E<2&^&!]C %B!:
3<l  !62Y! ) &!]C@ /&2&F&F x]U- !" M&`(
B_!2& %U!<AW;  !62Y!^&!]C %8! < k?!:`
C^&!]CM8!A<)!?!: M?8/0!;<= k?!:3!NU(!)
2&]‡+F"/'A^(35 UFR!FR?)2&F&  @dM l?/
$`"TF&2&F&FR!!6134 B!1(2& ) TUC<_3:!)2&
9!U2Y! ) TUC<_3:!)&!]C9) /
1.2.5. Thứ năm, vàng là một nguồn nguyên liệu quan trọng
Y!^34 MFX)<#6(sU (s)e(M|3!1U(
M9)7({2&3<l  !F&9!FR! !1?!:`:/&3<l ]w@

!)!C]‡C2&Fl!a\9C "F1 &`/T`F&c 9!:F=!
3<l ]w@9)?kB!:!1`/
4?E?-;!A
2.3.1. NHTW
& %2!7Wx$'WU !/$'VF&&2!"FYd
8;<=2& !1!; €WCFX@ $'( !1 M
]) !61WU !(3D=!!)])R3 8;<=2&Fl!a/
2.3.2. Ngân hàng thương mại
) T&<AR!]w@!1WCD2U^2&\<=!T(
3D=!  d? ) ; 2@2&9!:F=!WB) "F1 !)/
2.3.3. Nhà đầu tư tổ chức và cá nhân
S
$&3E<";<=2& %5F& )  `9!) ( :) 2&4
^&3E<eFŠ/'x!2&;<=€@ 3M 9!:F=!"2!1
3E A(+ "F1 !)4 ?7212& )   @?)!]!/
4?7?-;:FC&'.G
2.4.1. Nghiệp vụ mua bán giao ngay
T`F&!1?2@B)2& !1c !)R!=!3!5ea/&
% %!);FY"9!B)]UF<lFY( E=!!35 !1B•)2&
)!62&/
2.4.2. Nghiệp vụ mua bán kì hạn
Q&!1?2@ 9:B)2&2&&` @5<AF!R!c
!)N) 3;/!; &`€@ 3M BC!58!B!:3!)/
2.4.3. Nghiệp vụ quyền chọn
5!1W`63<l 2&B)F<l2&9C=!!N)
3;<AF!2Y!c !)3<l UdR!=!3!5!; /%!FR!W`6
xF&W`6 xI FF?!L(W`6 xB)I??!L2&,9!5W`6 x#
9!5†2&9!5GH/f`6 x9!5GH ?h?<=! !1W`6 xR!Bd
9=!3!5&=!!!1F  8l?3D/9!3%(W`6 x9!5†
v ?h? !1l?3D2&&`3)R/

?/-m.,Sm,Z
u
\B!53D5!1]CF<l9!) 2&"&:!Y!d`3<l 
fU F&<Y  %]CF<l9!) 2&!6d2Y!->ˆ(!:?pF&Œ]`F!2Y!
-ˆ(GHuˆ2&]U<Y 9)  % ) e^2&FY<$GHISˆL($
ISˆL(["((p]!(/`!"F<lq!^2& :FR!&&
9) •/
AH)?E?+NO#
GHF&<Y q!^3:>ˆF<l2&:!Y!2Y!k m->>(*d<A
3<A.,rJK/MB_!2a`69!: 8GH %C<_<A3U!FY3:!)
2&":!Y!/p ) !" c d`!)2&:!Y!B;) 3B_! ) T
U M]3T`#KB!:3 8!)3FGHnFO!]d!6w! 8GH(]B!:3 8
!)E(c 3FR?) 869!:GH(]U v]U9)  869!:GH<
!) c9)/
3.2.2. Nguồn cầu vàng
Y!^34 3!52&2!7!"B!1(2&&` &3<l  <=!]w@
2Y!!6@ 3M 9) /$&``(2&3<l ]w@ 8`:F&?<A!1
3k!(3E(M ^2&F&3D]c /$&!2& 73<l ]w@`:(3!1w(
 ?b2&3DU( !1?(%x /
-
$+,->(fU 3O2<lŽ_&<Y !"@2& d:!Y!
2Y!-PPd/$`"T 8`:F&c +,uˆ!1@2&]c 2&>mˆ
2&e!(2&N 8fU /$+,->( E2&_!1$3<l 3)!)
N:?cS":!Y!2Y!F<l EF&u,(,d/3%^# (ud(2&!:#
m(>d/k E2&+,-,#SP(mdI`3k!]2Y!+, #•,ˆL/E26
2&R!!1$&` &+2&9!:]‡ 7+!6+, /
4. Các nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến thị trường vàng
7?)?P;HDQ8R*SJ+,
$ (!);3DFGH2&!)2& %N<YB!:3<l  !6
/

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4.3.
Sự quản lý của Ngân hàng Trung ương (NHTW)
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2008
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2010
2011
2012

$D E2&Nd?)\ EF&3D]c (}  12&}353E
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Gold demand (WGC presentation)
Nguồn: LBMA, Thomas Reuters, World Gold Council.
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