

S V C 
HC HIU LNG
TI TRUNG QU
NATREX
2
 
 
T  th  c hiu l
s quan trng trong nn kinh t mi quc gia gn lin vi hoc
tn phi nm bt m n
ng t  i ni ngoi y nn
kinh t n d 
nhiu yu t n ch s u t ng mnh m t
u t c bi n kinh t nhi
ng dn truyn v xy ra s bit ngt dn s  c
cn ph   c

hay thp so vi NATREX.
IIIN:
 rng
 nh:
You & Sarantis m rc ca Stein theo nh quan
trng sau:
Th nht, hai bing hiu
d ng hiu dt ch n 
bin th hai tr ng hiu dng.
Th hai, s n ngoa Stein. Theo
 n n
nh bi yu t u hn ch n.
Th ba, vic s d p
cho Trung Qu 
 c ti
ng thi lng lot.
Th  dng s liu xp x  
yu t tng hp t n xun s  cu 
h  ng GDP thu
i hiu ch.
4
Th  nh ng ca Trung Qun mu dch th gii vn
ch mng mu di. T l mu dch ca Trung Quc
i sinh.
Th              
i vi Trung Qui ro qu
i danh m gi sai lch ca UIP.
1.2. C
1.2.1 Tiết kiệm
Tit kim bng sc (Y) cng vi thu nhp t 

) bng mng tin chung:
T = N x




(3)
 i t ). T i
c ca Trung Qu u chnh b:
R = N x


(4)
 s gi
T  
R = T(R
n
)
a
(5)
1.2.3 Đầu tư:
5
Tu
 c ti
I = DPI + GI + FDI (6)
 a s dng vn (c).
 dng v
c =



(DPI(Y(K;TFP),c), GI, R
n
, T)
= ( R
n

+/- + + + + - + + - -
1.2.4.Cân bằng thị trường hàng hóa:
T l mu di sinh u king ca th 
u king th u dch:
(I  S) + CA = 0
C
n
(R
n
,K,F;LIQC,DEPO,DEPY,T) + I
n
(R
n

n
(R
n
,K;TFP) (9)
1.2.5. Tài khoản vãng lai:
i cng vi thu nhp t 
 ct khu 1 (Y
1
) tr  p
khu 2, bao gm c  dp khu (C

ng trung hn:
Trong trung h vn  n s c.
Gi
n
ng th ng phi mu d
R
n
(t) = R
n
(K(t), F(t), Z(t)), (14)

u th yu t kinh t  i c
mu dch.
D ng trong trung hn
nh:
R(t) = T[R
n
(K(t), F(t), Z(t))] = R(K(t), F(t), Z(t)) (16)
Trong trung hi sinh. , bt  s i trong Z(t) s 
ng cu hong cung cu dch hoc c o ra R
n

m ng th 
1.4. S u chnh linh hot
S u ch   n bao gm nhng bi i ca v    c
 Kt hc cho s a vn:
dK/dt = J(K,F;Z), J
K
<0, J
F

K
>J
F
), tin v J=0 
ng cng ca v
kho-L
F
>L
K
), tin v L=0.
1.5.Trnh:
Trc khi vn v ng
s nh K
*

*
:
J(K*,F*;Z) = 0 (20)
L(K*,F*;Z) = S(K*,F*;Z)  J(K*,F*;Z) = 0 (21)
Gic trnh
K
*
= K(Z) (22)
F* = F(Z) (23)
i K
*
 u king th u dch.
i cu dch s u chn trn
nh R
*

Gic biu thc ca R
*
n

dR
n
*

R
n
*
=R
n
(K(Z), F(Z);Z) = R
n
*
(Z) (25)
=> dR
n
*
=



dK* +



dF* +


n
*
)
a
= R
*
(Z) (27)
u t kinh t n i ca
u dch R
n
*
s n t c R
*

. Ch  l mu di lng trc ti
ti
n
ng trc tiu trong 
m R
n
trong trung hn.
Cng ti R
n
trong trung h
ng R
n
*
n.
8
n ca t gnh:

 



t = 1, ,n (29)
: 











   



t = 1, ,n
: 








th   ti hn chun d
hng.

u  c hiu lc b
: 

















Sng bao gm s kt hp ca c n xui v
n xut, khng cnh tranh cho mi cp qu










i

j
t ch s gic i (Trung Quc)
i ca Trung Quc).
 
ng d r
c yu t n REER Vit th
hiu qu n ch thanh khon (LIQC). Thm xy ra s  c
2005. ng thi qua bi  ng thc
ng Vit Nam.
N C 
D t Nam.
nh mi quan h hn giu t ng v
ving Vit Nam. 10

MC LC
Bu thut ng 12
T  12
1. TCU: 1
1.1 GII THIU: 1
1.1.1 Mu: 1
1.1.2 u: 2
1.1.3 Kt cu: 2
12




T
Terms of trade

ET
Effective terms of trade index

TFP
Total factor productivity


LIQC
Liquidity Constraints

RDEPY
Relative dependency ratio of the
young

RDEPO
Relative dependency ratio of the
old


GI

t kinh t  a Trung Qu  a
trong nhng thp k g Trung Quc i ln v kinh t. Do
 xy ra s  c c ph c
nghi dn kt luu c
dng tp d li dng kinh nghi  
s hai s  ci sinh 
    t  thc hiu lc ca Trung Qu c ly t
IMF, t  dng khng c nh d liu
mu d  n 1999-ng mu dch giai
n 1999-2001 l ph
n trong quan h i ca Trung Quc,
 dng khng mu da
Trung Qui ln.
u, h u t n ca nn kinh t Trung
Quc : t l mu dch, yu t u, hn ch thanh kho,
t yu t tng hp, thuu qung hiu qu,
i hiu chnh theo PPP, t ng GDP thi  
nh xem yu t nh quan tri vi t c hiu lng.
2

Cut qu t c hiu ln (NATREX)
t c hiu lc (REER)  xem vi cao hay thp trong
c thc hin so vi r  tin t 
a Trung Quc.
Vi nh  u c  ng
m th :
Th nh      ng yu t   n t  c hiu lc
REER ca Trung Quc bng vic s d rnh

Th   Trung Quc vi

 c            ng mi
quan h v sc mua cng tit khng ci
 cn phm ging nhau   bng
ng m tin t chung. N c
cu s dch chuy   ng.
Trong kinh t hc, vi gi nh rng mi nn kinh t u m c 
   n chuyn, t 
hng t 
c t, hai gi m bu yu t
c t  
 c mt th  n ging
h rt nhiu thc nghim cho thu kic mua

Theo PPP, nh:
REER =







i


i

i

.

dt
+ b
3


ft
+ u
t
 thun 

, 


d


f
)
1.2.1.3 
  m t 
bng theo    nh  ng t  c  ng ngn hn bng mt
n kinh t . ng du kit
a.
p cng trong rt nhiu g t 
ng s n gim s
t v i gii (ph
hiu ng Balassa-        i gi  t
khu / nhp kh m ca nn kinht (t trng tng kim ngch xut nhp khu trong
GDP), s t v t th 
5

1.2.1.4 NATREX (Natural real exchange rates):
Mt d  
 
 u kin trong trung h n
ng v i t v   trng c
Nhi dng nn kinh t 
nhau trong nh     ng h    997) s dng
            

            
NATREX c s dng s 
dng NATREX  Trung Qu
Stein (1995) ch ra rp c t
t tp h ng thay th n kinh t
m ca tp ci vi
nn kinh t M t, quy
n kinh t i Mn
kinh t lng v t l mu dt th gii. Nn kinh t c
coi t nn kinh t t nn kinh
t m nh t th gii.
ng s (2002) s dp cn NATREX cho Trung
Quc bt hp bi d
 c kt qu 
ng NATREX b dng mt chui thi
p Johansen gi nh m
6

hp duy nhdng VECM, Duval (2002) thc mi quan h 

Tt c  cp  p cn NATREX

a mt Big Mac  t mng  c.
1.2.2.2 
Funke & Rahn (2005)
2000.
Hchng minh mt s p RMB bng m PPP  u chnh cho
hiu ng Balassa- chuy 
 mt PEER (BEER vi c lp c thit lp t c nh). H
 a h  liu   cho c, t 1985 - 2002, 
   t s   c     li   1994-2002. H nhn
thy rng  ch b p 3%-6%  11-12% song
 so vng USD.
-
12-14%.
-  ng s (2004)        

ng t  b
ng thi t ng vi tt c i tin t ln trong G-20. Ch
ra s  so vng USD  khong
40%.

- 44%.
Coudert & Couharde (2005) 

 dng m  ng d liu bng cho hiu ng Balassa-Samuelson ti 21 th
ng mi ni   n 1980-2002. Bin ph thuc   s t   
thc so v ng      hi  ca Trung Quc  n tr s u
chnh.

18%.
8

to ra s mng ti b
n, khong 7% so vi USD.
9


 
 sung (FEER) thit k  gii quyt mt s v. Kt qu ca h cho thy s cn
thit pht s gic s 
mng.

1.2.2.3 
Jeong & Mazier (2003)
2000
H         c gia Trung Quc, Nht
Bn,  Quc, Hoa K, Euroland, i ca th gii. H  ng
ca  u hc, thu nhp, )  s 
cho  qu   nghi    ng mi ni mt   bit,   
  t  n  n    bng ca mi quc gia ca h.
 Coudert  Couharde, Jeong  Mazier        mt con
s th       bn        t chim
khong 1% n 1,5% ca GDP. T    thc hiu lc thc t i m 
bng 22% (c  l song  so vng USD c  
thng 40% (c


Coudert & Couharde (2005) 

Vi vic s dR, kt qu n mt s 
thp.H i kt qu ca h s i xu th hi
a h  


  c mt s u chnh m
a M (gim 3% GDP ca M  t
phn ca m  u ch   a Trung
Qu      gim 40% (t     n 2,5%, cho Trung
Quc).


11

Goldstein & Lardy (2006) 

H lp lun rng th
khong t n 7% GDP (trong khi kt qu thc t n 9%, phng
c cht s  t
phn  t 2,5% GDP, con s cup v
 xut trong ph
20-35%.
Anderson (2006)
u   rng s  n  a Trung Quc  
cao    b  u t     a  p nng,  thng
 theo chu k u chnh    5%   n FDI tim 
c c   GDP,  ra mt s u chnh m 6%  dng m
i   xut khu   i nhp khu  rng s
u chnh    u mt   i 18% n 25%  
thp t 15% n 20%).

-20%

Chp nhn d a Trung Qut




PPP
Frankel (2006)
2000

56%
Coudert & Couharde (2005)
2003

41-50%
Wang (2004)
2003
0-5%

-5%

Bosworth (2004)
2004

67%
Cheung, Chinn & Fujii (2007)
2007

100
BIg Mac
2007

138%

2007c

15%
FEER
Jeong & Mazier (2003)
2000
29%
67%
Coudert & Couharde (2005)
2002-2003
23-30%
44-54%
Wren-Lewis (2004)
2003

19-22%
Goldstein (2004)
2004
15-30%

Cline (2005)
2005
21%
45%
Goldstein & Lardy (2006)
2006
20-35%

Anderson (2006)
2006

Th hai, s c xem lbin ngoa
Stein. Theo Modigls i gian c xem n ni sinh
nh bi yu t u hn ch n.
Th ba, vic s dng Tobin q  ng  p
cho Trung Quc (theo lp lun ct
sn vn c  h
 Trung Qucch m th ng i nh
 ng hn ch giao dch do  a, gi nh th ng cnh
o, mt gi nh quan trng c Trung Quc.

c (DPI) (GI) c ti (FDI)ng thi
lng lot. Do  ng ca

Trích đoạn Giải thích kết quả thực nghiệm với sự kiện thực tế: KẾT LUẬN: Các kiến nghị chính sách: Thu thập số liệu:

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