
 !
"# $%&
'($&)
*$%+
%,-$&"./
*$0&"./
1234567898
9 ':;<=%
=% >?%&@A&BC%.DEF2?%>FGHIJ
;.KLM+NOPI1QRS2T ?%>UGI"J
;/$VN;WXR%:GPJ8Y;/$Z9
MF[FR\]^!
_!BC%.?%>FGHIJGNOPIJGMF2^%UJ
`Y!QRS2T ?%>UGI"JGVN;WJGMFS
aJ
`7!bXR%:GPJGZJGMF2^%UJ
9 %c2R>b@%
&9SR>b@% M9d
F
S
a
B/$
HI BC%.
?%>F
NOPI
I" QRS
2T
?%>U
V
N

Y58Y 8594j fif755 859jj
9 0*V[Fb.K
89 0*VW?%,Qk!
"l0!_

mn
8
on
Y
p`
Y
on
7
p`
7
oO

Y9 0*VW?%, q%!
Pl0!_

m
8
o
Y
p`Yo
7
p`7or

/Rsbt%,FDFbD& *V
&9 /Rsbt%,F

i
thu được từ kết quả mô hình hồi quy như sau:
Obs Actual Fitted Residual Residual Plot
1993
0.0173486383
346131
0.4306731020
46038
-
0.4133244637
11425 |* . | . |
1994
0.7132438822
59068
0.6116741768
00107
0.1015697054
58961 | . | * . |
1995
0.9384435365
15288
0.7671757684
64326
0.1712677680
50963 | . | *. |
1996
0.9984235614
12677
0.6974799463
94981

61913 | . | * . |
2001
0.8962920853
67465
0.8856384445
27396
0.0106536408
400695 | . * . |
2002
0.9520439015
79973
1.0390101638
1
-
0.0869662622
300238 | . * | . |
2003
0.9745596399
98131
1.1420290239
7052
-
0.1674693839
7239 | .* | . |
2004
1.0481958027
5409
1.2847080324
7382
-

0.1651878038
66241 | . | *. |
2009
2.3025850929
9405
2.1267960945
0924
0.1757889984
84804 | . | *. |
2010
2.3978952727
9837
2.3206500434
8613
0.0772452293
12239 | . | * . |
2011
2.3978952727
9837
2.6054231682
7067
-
0.2075278954
72299 | * | . |
2012
2.3570732782
7812
2.3678566449
7658
-

• %%T[k ;$!m„
G•7J
• 0<MM…!†
‡
mˆ!‰‰Š‹
• €MS8&
?R
m•8897j48Y
• '1mY5x =tŒ&‡m5954&MS>[&!Y9885
‰
?R
m•8897j48Y‰ŠY9885mŠ
?R

∈
†
‡
 M…S%,F
5
x:2cS%,F
8
x&,1 =t
Œ&‡m5954V@R>ƒtŒ&9
89Y @R>n
Y
n
7
!
 k ;$@R>n
Y

 k ;$•R>n
7
!
• k ;$ƒ2S%,F!
• %%T[k ;$!m„
G•7J
• 0<MM…!†
‡
mˆ!Ž‹
• €MS8&
?R
m79g5gffY
'1mY5x =tŒ&‡m5954&MS>[&!

?R
m79g5gffYŠmŠ
?R

∉
†
‡
mŠ.&/RsMM…S%,F

5
9'c,:2cS%,F
5
&,1 =tŒ&‡m5954V@
R>n
7
tŒ&x2|K21bt%,F[FGNb-bXR%:

798B&U%,F
&9"./22W?%,2^
`• *VW?%,!_

mn
8
on
Y
`
Y
on
7
`
7
oO

• W?%, *V`
Y
2^%U`
7
;kwr  *V>@
.K;&U%,F&,[*r2./22W?%,2^9
+2C < •r•R&MSMR&%!
Báo cáo 2:
Dependent Variable: LOG(X2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/16/14 Time: 11:17
Sample: 1993 2012
Included observations: 20
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

• 0<MM…!†
‡
mˆH!HŠJ‹
• €MSY&!H
?R
m59744888
'1 =tŒ&‡m5954&MS>[&!mh9h8
 H
?R
m59744888Žmh9h8mŠH
?R

∉
†
‡
mŠ.&/RsMM…S
%,F
5
x&:2cS%,F
5
xMM…S%,F
8
9'c,
1 =tŒ&‡m5954Vk+ *V>[*
;&U%,F9
M9BU;rb
`• *VW?%,!_

mn
8

7
o
Y
%;.K
P\]^2C < •r•R&%;.K[F?%S!
Báo cáo 3:
Dependent Variable: LOG(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/16/14 Time: 14:17
Sample: 1993 2012
Included observations: 20
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LOG(X2) 0.680702 0.068561 9.928446 0.0000
C -7.059518 0.848733 -8.317713 0.0000
R-squared 0.845592 Mean dependent var 1.342710
Adjusted R-squared 0.837013 S.D. dependent var 0.714563
S.E. of regression 0.288480 Akaike info criterion 0.446259
Sum squared resid 1.497976 Schwarz criterion 0.545833
Log likelihood -2.462594 F-statistic 98.57404
Durbin-Watson stat 0.531668 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Báo cáo 4:
Dependent Variable: LOG(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/16/14 Time: 14:19
Sample: 1993 2012
Included observations: 20
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
X3 0.117173 0.065582 1.786654 0.0908
C 0.196587 0.659090 0.298270 0.7689
R-squared 0.150628 Mean dependent var 1.342710


mŠ
• 1b.K *Vu&[k ;$†r!
m‡
8
o‡
Y
p`
Y
o‡
7
p`
7
o‡
h
po‡
4
po‡
j
p`
8
p`
Y
o'

Báo cáo 5:
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic 0.860619 Prob. F(5,14) 0.530845
Obs*R-squared 4.702042 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 0.453314
Test Equation:

j
m5J
• 
8
!"./R&R&R>&,;QGW#a:8@R>‡
•
–5G•m
JJ
• %%T[k ;$!—m„—
Y
G J
• 0<MM…!†
‡
mˆ—
Y
!—
Y
ŠG J‹
€MS4&!mh9g5Y5hY
'1 m4x‡m5954&MS>[&G Jm8895g54
 mh9g5Y5hYŽG Jm8895g54mŠ
∉
†
‡
 *;u/Rs;kMM…S%,F
5
xVc,1 =tŒ&
‡m5954&:2cS%,F
5
&, *V;X

Y
o‡
7
`
7
o™
8
r
•8
o™
Y
r
•Y
o'

%;.KxlPP
8
P\]^2C < •r•R;kEF[k ;$%
;.K[F?%SR&%!
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 1.071934 Prob. F(2,15) 0.367171
Obs*R-squared 2.501032 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.286357
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 03/16/14 Time: 19:57
Sample: 1993 2012
Included observations: 20
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

‡

59
'c,1;UEc,f4ZV *V[*D./?%&
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Date: 03/16/14 Time: 20:33
Sample: 1993 2012
Included observations: 20
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LOG(X2) 0.424416 1.107162 0.383336 0.7068
X3 0.048445 0.151548 0.319665 0.7536
C -4.691175 13.54798 -0.346264 0.7340
FITTED^2 0.230686 1.185700 0.194557 0.8484
FITTED^3 -0.045117 0.256133 -0.176146 0.8625
R-squared 0.914889 Mean dependent var 1.342710
Adjusted R-squared 0.892193 S.D. dependent var 0.714563
S.E. of regression 0.234620 Akaike info criterion 0.150616
Sum squared resid 0.825696 Schwarz criterion 0.399549
Log likelihood 3.493843 F-statistic 40.31009
Durbin-Watson stat 1.132875 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
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Series: Residuals
Sample 1993 2012
Observations 20
Mean -6.66e-16
Median 0.043949
Maximum 0.300944
Minimum -0.413324
Std. Dev. 0.208777
Skewness -0.241864
Kurtosis 1.981465
Jarque-Bera 1.059505
Probability 0.588751
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