Foreign Trade University
Faculty of Economics and International Bussiness
Development Economics
Group assignment
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF VIET NAM
Instructor: MA. Nguyen Thi Hai Yen
Group 10
Students:
Nguyen Thanh Nam Vu Khanh An
Nguyen Quang Huy Le Huu Trung
Le Hai Hung Nguyen Ngoc Dung
Foreign Trade University
Development Economics
Group 10
Le Thi Dieu Linh Nguyen Thanh Tung
Ha Noi, May 2014
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Development Economics
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Outline
Literature Review
There are many studies that have examined the effects of climate change on
Vietnam’s economy. The majority of findings stated that climate change have negative
impacts on Vietnam’s economy and suggest possible adaptation or mitigation measures
to lessen the adverse impacts. The economies of some countries are more vulnerable to
climate
change than the global average, according to a report by World Bank (2009),
Vietnam is one of the five countries predicted to be among the most affected by climate
change due to its long coastlines. According to Tran Duc Vien in Climate change and its

had stated how human can adapt to the change of climate in the future years, and also the
way we could mitigate the emissions of GHG and climate change. In this studies, the
author have stated that it is a need for every country in this world to unite to face the
climate change. While agriculture has traditionally been the focus of attention on climate
change impact, nearly every sector is sensitive to climate change and will need to adapt
to future conditions(Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction in
Africa).
As observed, we relized that previous researches provided knowledge with features
of content:
Impact of climate change on specific economic sector of Vietnam, but not a whole
picture of Vietnam’s economy
Impact of climate change on Vietnam’s economy, but not giving absolute solutions to
mitigate and prevent these effects
In this research, we concentrate on the impacts of climate change on economic
sectors of Vietnam, as well as the whole economy. This research also provides
opportunities and threats of climate change, and base on that to give the absolute and
effective solutions.
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I. General
1. Geographical location & Vietnam’s climate
a. Geographical location
Vietnam is a nation which is located in Western South of Dong Duong peninsula.
Vietnam’s area spreads from longitude 102 ° 8 'E to 109 ° 27' East ; latitude from 8 ° 27
'North and 23 ° 23' North.
- Vietnam’s area: 331.698 km
2
, including 324.480 km

(cm)
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Climate area 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
North West 1.4 3.0 4.6 6.1 7.4
North East 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.1 7.3
North Delta 1.6 3.2 5.0 6.6 7.9
North of
Central
1.5 3.1 4.9 6.4 7.7
South of
Central
0.7 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.2
Tay Nguyen 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4
- Average of annual temperature:
In general, the temperature tends to be higher than mountains and plateaus region.
Temperature of North Vietnam seems to augument much more than South of
Vietnam. Comparing to the 1980 – 1999 period, average temperature in the North
will increase by 2.4 – 6.8°C, and 1.6 – 2.0°C in the South in 2100.
Table 2: The prediction of annual temperature’s increase comparing to 1980 – 1999
period (
o
C)
Climate area 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
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 Advantages:
- Vietnam is located on an international crossroads of maritime& aviation, which create
favorable conditions for our country to exchange with countries in the region and
around the world.
- Vietnam is also a convenient gate-way entrance to sea for Laos, Northeast Thailand,
Cambodia and China's Southwestern region.
- The area of sea is much more extensive than landside, which facilitates some marine
economy.
 Favorable location is important to develop economic sectors, regions, which
creates conditions to open policies, integration with the countries in the world,
attracting foreign investment.
 Disadvantages:
- The extension from North to South leads to the increase of the transportation’s cost,
and difficulties in operating society & economy.
Vietnam is also located in disaster-prone areas like storms, floods, droughts which
occur every year.
b. Effects of climate to Vietnam’s economy:
- Rainfall: the go-up of annual rainfall causes the deterioration of transportation
system’s infrastructure, increases the maintaining costs.
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- Temperature:
 The increase in temperature will make paved road (which is designed to
withstand the low temperature) bearing more damage. This also leads to
the reduction of new roads investment.
 The increase of temperature also has a considerable effect on natural
ecosystem, for example, shifting the temperature boundaries of
continental ecosystems and freshwater ecosystems, altering the structure

or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects
on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed
ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health
and welfare.” UNFCCC
_ "Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere
and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods.
Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to
persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.
2. Causes of climate change:
The causes of climate change can be divided into two categories : natural causes and
those that are created by man.
a. Natural causes
There are a number of natural factors responsible for climate change. Some of the more
prominent ones are continental drift, volcanoes, ocean currents, the earth's tilt, and
comets and meteorites.
In our assignment, we pay more attention to the causes that are made by human being
rather than the natural ones.
b. Human causes
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The Industrial Revolution in the 19th century saw the large-scale use of fossil fuels for
industrial activities. These industries created jobs and over the years, people moved
from rural areas to the cities. This trend is continuing even today. More and more land
that was covered with vegetation has been cleared to make way for houses. Natural
resources are being used extensively for construction, industries, transport, and
consumption.

are flooded during the sowing and maturing periods. When soil is covered with water it
becomes anaerobic or lacking in oxygen. Under such conditions, methane-producing
bacteria and other organisms decompose organic matter in the soil to form methane.
Nearly 90% of the paddy-growing area in the world is found in Asia, as rice is the
staple food there. China and India, between them, have 80-90% of the world's rice-
growing areas.
Methane is also emitted from landfills and other waste dumps. If the waste is put into
an incinerator or burnt in the open, carbon dioxide is emitted. Methane is also emitted
during the process of oil drilling, coal mining and also from leaking gas pipelines (due
to accidents and poor maintenance of sites).

This graph shows the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the
atmosphere over the last 2,000 years. Increases in concentrations of these gases since
1750 are due to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per
million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the
greenhouse gas per million or billion molecules of air.
Source: USGCRP (2009)
A large amount of nitrous oxide emission has been attributed to fertilizer application.
This in turn depends on the type of fertilizer that is used, how and when it is used and
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the methods of tilling that are followed. Contributions are also made by leguminous
plants, such as beans and pulses that add nitrogen to the soil.
d. Human activities:
_ All of us in our daily lives contribute our bit to this change in the climate. Give
these points a good, serious thought:
_ Electricity is the main source of power in urban areas. All our gadgets run on
electricity generated mainly from thermal power plants. These thermal power

2010 0.3 -0.5 9
2050 1.1 – 1.8 33
2100 1.5 – 2.5 45
Source: Mr Nguyen Khac Hieu, 2008
Table 2: Forecast about climate change in regions of Viet Nam( increase in
temperature in comparison with 1990)( unit 0C
Year North
West
North
East
North
delta
North
middle
South
Middle
Central
highland
South
2050 1.41 1.66 1.44 1.68 `1.13 1.01 1.21
2100 3.49 4.38 3.71 3.88 2.77 2.39 2.8
Source: Mr Nguyen Khac Hieu, 2008
The tendency about climate change in Viet Nam:
_ The temperature in the North area of Viet Nam increase faster than the South
area, the temperature of the coastal areas increase slower than the inner area.
From now to the end of 21
st
century the highest temperature can increase from 4
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losses are grouped within the range of US$6–15 billion in present value terms. These
losses provide clear incentives for adaptation policies designed to reduce climate
change damages. Moreover, the findings suggest that there is a window of opportunity
for Vietnam to benefit from pre-emptive action.
2. Climate change directly affects every economic sector
a. Impacts of climate change on agriculture, forestry and fisheries
 Agriculture
Tracking in recent years shows that there are many expression of extreme weather and
not normally follow the general conditions as it should be.
_ Firstly drought situation becomes more serious and frequent. For example, in 2010
a severe drought in the northern mountainous province and north-central provinces.
Then Son La has the largest area of corn yield decreased up to 40%; That year also
summer-autumn crop in the north-central province should have been implanted in
June but July still not all transplants because the drought, even in the reservoir has
no water. In the year of 2013, drought occurs very serious in South Central Coast
and Central Highlands. Perhaps the 16 thousand hectares of summer-autumn rice
should be implanted, but because the reality of not enough water farmers was
advised to not producing. Last droughts make thousands of hectares of coffee in the
Central Highlands died.
_ Secondly extreme cold and damaging cold weather also caused many abnormal and
erratic manifestations. The most obvious is the longer cold, and the number of
extreme cold and damaging cold days is larger than normal. Cold penetrate deeper
into the provinces of North and South Central. Previously the cold affects only the
Red River Delta provinces and the northern mountainous provinces alone; but
recently the level of cold becomes more serious , and even spread into the south.
For example, in 2008, 2010 the cold period makes thousands of hectares of rice in

 Impact on forestry
_ Climate change makes decrease in forest land fund and forest area
The rising of sea level make considerable impact on mangroves.
The Mountains and Midlands of the North: The average coverage of forest of this
region was about 42.2% in 2013. However, the coverage of forest is unequal between
area, for instance the figure is 7.4% in Ha Tay, whereas 61.8% in Tuyen Quang.
Although there have been many water storage project is done, but because of the steep
slopes and heavily dissected terrain, most reservoirs are small. In addition, due to the
forest coverage is unequal and the quality of forest is not good, in the years that are
lack of rain, drought prevention had inconsiderable effect.
The Coastal of the Central: The average coverage of forest of this region was about
44.4% in 2013. Due to the complex topography with high mountain ranges run close to
the sea, interspersed with small deltas, influenced by the monsoon hot and dry, low
rainfall conditions, this is the harshest region throughout Vietnam
Because of climate change, the number and danger level of hurricanes increase by year.
These hurricanes are more unpredictable and powerful as time go by. This has made
lots of damage to the forest. In 2013, Vietnam has the number of hurricanes as the
highest in 49 years.
Highlands: The average coverage of forest of this region was about 54.5% in 2013.
Groundwater resource is abundant here. However, unusual weather over years and
excessively water resource mining for industrial plant have made serious imbalance
between surface and underground water. Moreover, dry and hot weather makes high
risk of forest fires.
Mekong Delta: The average coverage of forest of this region was about 12.1% in
2013. Many parts of the Mekong Delta have high proportion of alkaline due to
seriously undermining land for agricultural production.
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Environment degradation and severe weather caused the outbreaks of dangerous
fishery diseases. For example, white spots disease (WSD) of shrimp in Cuu Long River
delta in 2000-2001, lobster disease in the Middle in 2009-2010, hepatopancreas disease
of brackish shrimp over the nation in 2011-2012 … All these disease cause numerous
damage to the fishery of Vietnam
Moreover, increase in number and severity of unpredictable and major disasters on the
sea also make danger to fishermen. Unexpected storm, tsunami or earthquake can
threaten the life of fishermen.
Real figures:
According to Climate change Working Group, in Research in observation of
vulnerabilities from climate change (10/1/2013), Vietnam stands the first position on
group of nations that have fishery loss by climate change at alarming level. Loss of
Vietnam was 1.5 billion dollar in 2010 and this figure is predicted to go up to 25 billion
dollar in 2030. According to Mr. Nguyen Quang Thanh, Live and Learn Centre
Vietnam, in 2030 the loss from climate change will raise to 11% Vietnam’s GDP
In the middle of 2013, Vietnam had 480,000 people having career in fishery, 100,000
people work in seafood processing, and 2,140,000 people involve in aquatic service.
Aquatic livelihood, consist of fishing and fish farming, are those which depend on
water source and coastal resources abundance, by that become one of the most
sensitive and vulnerable to impact of climate change.
Especially, loss in fish farming tends to increase in recent years by impact of rising in
sea level, drought, saltwater intrusion, unseasonal rain and flood, changing in water
environment. Loss of fish farming in some typical provinces have already rose to 34-
40%/ year, namely Bac Lieu, Ben Tre, Ca Mau…
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b. Impact of climate change on industry sector
Industries, especially coastal industrial parks, will be seriously affected by climate

tour Today, types of marine tourism began to develop in Nha Trang based on
exploiting the value of coral reefs services. Besides, our country also has the advantage
of marine tourism development due to the open sea, long coastline and many islands
with monsoon tropical climate, beautiful beaches, rich in biodiversity, beautiful
landscapes, and historic sites along the coast.
Along the coastal areas in our country it have been identified that about 126 beaches
can hold tens to hundreds of thousand people, of which there is about 20 beaches
achieved international standards, 16km long. That is not to mention the hundreds of
small beaches, beautiful, located along bays, quiet pool and near uninhabited island of
the archipelago in the northwest of Tonkin Gulf, Cat Ba Archipelago, Cu Lao Cham
island group of, Hon Mun, Ly Son, Con Dao, Phu Quoc. Although guests capacity is
not large enough, but very suitable for the type picnic, and excursions of small group
of nature-loving tourists.
According to a recent analysis on the impacts of climate change, tourism sector and
economic development in Vietnam are facing serious threats from climate change
within 30 following years.
The 2013 research of Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment in in
Vietnam shows that in addition to the heavy pollution, climate change continues to
destroy 110,000 hectares of of coral reefs in Vietnam, only 14.5% of the 110,000
hectares of these coral reefs are in good condition. Meanwhile, according to the
Vietnam Institute of Research and Development, extreme weather phenomenon caused
by climate change could significantly reduce revenue from marine tourism accounts for
more than 70% of total revenue from the maritime economy.
The scientists warned in 2020, rising sea levels could inundate about 30% Hoi An
town. Da Nang is also facing the impact of climate change including floods and
saltwater intrusion.
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addition, the continue rising heat also opened up avenue for fire and exloration. From
15/11/2012 to 15/11/2013, there were 2.5 thousand fires, 65 devastating exploration
which has left 127 people dead and 339 injured,caused 1.6 trilition VND loss.
From 1989 to 2010 , climate change caused many devastating different types of
disasters to Vietnam, Flood is the most reported with 48% of the total datacards
or records. Following floods, the most reported events are hailstorms (20%), storms
(13%) and flash floods (7%). Cyclones (typhoons), landslides, heavy rain and
other events combined account for 12% of the reported events in the historical
disaster database for this period. Over this same period, the provinces with the most
houses destroyed and damaged due to all disaster types are Quang Binh - with
331,055 houses destroyed and damaged, Thanh Hoa with 103,646 and Ha Tinh with
96,172. The province with the most houses destroyed is Thanh Hoa (97,383 houses)
while the province with the most houses damaged is Quang Binh. The most
impacted regions are the North Central and the Mekong River Delta.
In the year of 2013, Vietnam was subject to 15 powerfull , unpredictable typhoons,
which cause serious damage to people and facilities. According to the locals reports,
313 people were listed as missing and dead, 1.150 people were injured, 6.4 thousand
houses and building were destroyed, 88.2 km Dyke and 894 km road broke down.
Total damage in 2013 was 30 trillion VND, which was twice as much as the 2012.
 Climate changes’ impacts on Vietnamese Health
Viet Nam is a country with the S shape and has more than 3000km of land in contact
with South China Sea, not to mention Viet Nam is also a tropical monsoon climate
country, that is the reason why Viet Nam is one of the five developing country which is
most affected by climate change. This means the life of Vietnamese people is directly
impacted by the changing climate.
_ From the adverse impact on human health