NGHIEN
cufu
-
TRAO DOI
llll
NGHIEN
cufu THifC
NGHIEM VE HIEU NANG
CUA GAC CHI NHANH NGAN HANG
THtfOlNG
MAI
NHA
NtfOfC
TAI THANH PHO HO CHI MINH
TS.
TriTPng
Quang Thong
DH Kinh te TP. HCM
"•^^ ^fgdnh
ngdn hdng co mot vi the ddc hiet quan trong trong mdi quan he vdi cdc
M^^L
M
nganh
khde.
Ly ludn vd thUc tien dd minh
chUng
rdng, thdnh cong cua cdc
M ^^^
hoat dQng kinh te phdi dUa tren mot he thong ngdn hdng hoat dong co hieu
^" W
ndng (thudng

hdm y rdng, cdc ca
quan gidm sdt ludn mong muon gidm thieu nguy ca phd sdn cua ngdn hdng vd mot muc
tieu nhu the co ve thich hap vdi cdc cdu
true
ngdn hdng dgc quyen, nhU trUdng hap cda
he thdng ngdn hdng
Vi^t
Nam hien nay. Do do, ndy sinh sU cdn thiet phdi nghien cUu cdu
true, hdnh vi, hieu ndng hoat dgng cua cdc ngdn hdng vd mdi quan he qua lai
giUa
cdc
bien trong linh vUc ngdn hdng.
Cong nghe
ngan hang
rri
So
61 "Thane
04/2011 ••• So
61 "Thang
04/2011
Ill
NGHIEN
cufu
-
TRAO DOI
Muc tieu cua bai viet
Muc tieu cua bai viet la, trong cac tiep can
cua md hinh S-C-P, phan tich eac nhan to' anh
hudng den hieu ning cua nhdm cae ehi nhanh
ngan hang thUPng mai (NHTM) nha nUdc de

lupng trong kinh te' bao gdm thdng ke va
kinh
te
lUpng.
Co
sof ly thuyet
khic biet trong hanh vi cua cac doanh nghiep
(Conduct) ve cic
phUUng
dien chien
lUpc
gii
ca, chien lupe dau tU, cac hinh thdc lien ket,
hpp tic va tic dpng
ciia
ca'u
true
- hanh vi
den hieu nang hoat dpng (Performance)
ciia
cae doanh nghiep.
NgUdi cd vai trd sing lap nen ly thuyet ve kinh
te cdng nghiep chinh la A. Marshall. Marshall
da phan tich nhdng giai doan phit trien cua
cdng nghiep vi phac hpa len mpt khung phan
tich phdi hpp gida phan tich md ta va cic tiep
can ly thuyet (Gilbert, 1984). NhUng den cudi
nam 1930, thi mpt khung ly thuyet thdng nha't
ve kinh te cdng nghiep mdi dupc E. Mason de
ra. Khdng nhU ly thuyet kinh te vi md truyen

Mo hinh S-C-P (Structure-Conduct-Performance)
dUa tren ly thuyet td chdc cong nghiep
(Theory on Industrial
Organisations).Qua
dd,
khi nghien cdu ca'u triic thi trUdng (Structure),
ngudi ta cd khuynh hudng xem xet lieu nhdng
khac biet ve ca'u triic se giai thich nhdng
nganhang
Cac tranh luan ban lam va nghien cdu thdc
nghiem dng dung md hinh S-C-P ve phan tich
mdi quan he gida ca'u
true
va hieu nang trong
linh vUc ngan hang xua't bien va phat trien
chu yeu
d
My. Trong khi dd, be thdng ngan
hang chau Au it dupc cac nha nghien cdu quan
So
61 "Thang
04/2011
NGHIEN
cufu
- TRAO DOI
II
tim trong mdt thdi gian dai vi no co tinh cdng
nhac,
it thay ddi va do thUdng dUpc bao hp
(Freixas, Xavier, Rocher, J.C, 1998). Nhin

S-C-P thanh P
=
f (S, B, D, C, X) de dng dung
phan tich nganh ngan hang.
Trong do :
P:
hieu nang,
thUdng
dUpc do
lUdng
bang gia
ca (lai suat cho vay binh quan, lai suit huy
dpng binh quan, cic he so' lpi nhuan).
S: ca'u
true.
Cac nghien cdu thudng sd dung
bien tdng so' tien gdi de tinh chi so' tap trung
va chi so' H-H.
B:
cac bien sd ca'u true khic, thudng la rao
can nhip cudc. Viec nhip cupc cua mpt doi thu
mdi se lam manh hcfn cUdng dp canh tranh
cua nginh. Trong linh vUc ngan hang, cd hai
y kie'n do'i
nghieh
nhau: (i) Cac cO quan kiem
soit cho rang, can phai ban che canh tranh
qui mdc, vi nhap cupc tU do se tic dpng khdng
tdt den cac lpi ich chung nhU duy tri thanh
khoan, quyen lpi cua chu np; (ii) Y kien khic

ban ciia
tien gdi; tdng cho vay/tdng tai san; he so' vdn/
tdng tai san; he sd dU phdng rui ro
tin
dung
tren tdng dU np.
Trtfcfng
hpp Trung Quoc
Chien-Shun
Chen va Hui-Tzu Shih (2004) da
tien hanh nhdng nghien cdu thUc nghiem ddi
vdi he thdng Ngin hang Trung Qud'c. Ddi vdi
he thdng ngan hang nay, cac san pham truyen
tho'ng nhu huy dpng vdn va cho vay doanh
nghiep da tang trUdng manh do thi trUdng
banh trUdng sau cupc
khiing
hoang tai chinh
chau A, the hien cf mdc dp huy dpng
vd'n/nhan
vien va lpi nhuan rong/nhan vien gia tang.
k^^^a.
te
nganhang
So 61
"Thang 04/2011
I i NGHIEN
cufu
-
TRAO

nhi nUdc ehu yeu nhd vao sU gia tang
ciia
qui md thi trUdng. Dieu do chi ra rang, do
viec hudng dung vi the gan nhu la dpc quyen
nhdm, cac chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc vin
Ii
mpt the
lUc
manh trong he tho'ng Ngan
hang Trung Qud'c.
Mo hinh nghien
citu
Td tdng luan ly thuyet ve md hinh nghien
cdu, xet cac diem
tUofng
ddng trong thUc
trang, the che quan ly qua trinh chuyen
ddi va ca'u
true
tdng the gida he tho'ng
Ngan hang Viet Nam va he tho'ng Ngan
hang Trung Qud'c, md hinh phan tich dupc
nhdm nghien cdu chpn cd dang:
P = f(S, C, X, )
Trong dd:
P la bieu nang, dupe do bang ty le
thu nhap tren tdng tai san ROA
S la cac bien ca'u true
C la cac bien hanh vi (chinh sach)
X

,'A« r.
.„,!>a ngan hang
So
61 "Thang
04/2011
NGHIEN
cufu
- TRAO DOI
thdng cic chi nhanh ngan hang tren dia ban
Tp.
Hd Chi Minh (khdng bao gdm cac dinh che
tai chinh phi ngan hang).
- Thi phan huy dpng vdn (Deposit Share), ky
hieu Z2: dupc tinh toin bang cich lay tdng sd
du huy dpng tien gdi ciia cac ehi nhanh ngan
hang chia cho tdng dU huy dpng tien gdi
ciia
toin he tho'ng ngan hang of Tp. Hd Chi Minh
(ciing khdng bao gdm cac dinh che tai chinh
phi ngin hang).
- Thi phan tai san (Asset Share), ky hieu Z4:
dupe tinh toan bang cich lay tdng tai san ciia
tdng nhom chi nhinh ngan hang ehia cho
tdng tii san cua toin he thdng cic chi nhanh
ngan hing d Tp. Hd Chi Minh. Thi phan tai
san trong mpt ehdng mUc nao dd cd the hien
tinh kinh te qui mo
ciia
hoat dpng ngin hang.
- Ty le np xi'u (NPL Ratio), ky hieu Z6: dupc

ty le nay cing cao thi cang lam tang kha nang
giam thieu chi phi huy dpng von dau vao, gia
tang hieu qua boat dpng cua ngan hang.
- Cho vay/huy dpng (Lending to Deposit Ratio),
ky hieu
Zll:
dUpc tinh toan bang cich lay
tdng du np cho vay chia tdng so' tien gdi huy
dpng. Ty le nay cang cao thi cang gia tang
kha ning rui ro tin dung
ciia
ngin hang, trong
khi dd, cic ngan hang cd ty le cho vay/huy
dpng tha'p thudng cd kha ning giam thieu rui
ro
tin
dung, da dang hda danh muc tai san dau
td, da dang hda danh muc dich vu cung dng
cho khich hang.
- Cof ca'u thu nhip
lai/tdng
thu nhap, ky hieu
Z12:
ty le nay cang cao thi ngan hang cang de
gap rui ro tin dung hcfn. Dieu dd cung
thUdng
tha'y d nhdng ngan hang bi ban che ve cung
dng dich vu.
- Cho vay trung dai han/tdng cho vay (Mediem
and Long Term Lending to Total Lending), ky

ngoai te td cac chu np nUdc ngoai vi ca td cic
tai khoan nostro tUofng dng vdi cic tai san cd
ngoai te nhU da ndi d phan tren. Do dd, tii
san np ngoai te ciing the hien tiem
lUc
cua
cac ngin hang ldn, manh ve dich vu, nha't la
cac dich vu lien quan den xua't nhap khau va
ngoai hoi; ben canh dd, cdn the hien nang
lUc
vay np td
ngUdi
khdng cU tru, neu co.
Cac bien liet ke tren, mpt mat, chinh la nhdng
chi tieu thudng dUpc sd dung de do
lUdng
va
nganhang
So
61
"Thang 04/2011
II
NGHIEN
cufu
-
TRAO DOI
dinh
gia
boat ddng NHTM, nhdng
mat

dinh dupc nhdng thanh phan
tic
dpng vao ROA
va sap xep chung theo mdc dp
tic
dpng tang dan
hoac giam dan;
(ii) So
sinh, nhan dinh sU khic
biet
ve
hieu nang ciia
cac
loai hinh ngan hang
khic nhau va so sinh, sap xep mdc dp hieu nang
ROA
ciia
cac ngan hang; (iii) Ket luan
va
dUa
ra
nhdng ham
y
chinh sich.
Bo du! lieu cho phan tich: nhdm nghien cdu
da
sd
dung bang
can ddi
tdng

Vdi mdc
y
nghia
a=15%,
hau het ca bien ky vpng
deu tUofng quan cd
y
nghla ddi vdi hieu nang ROA.
Vi vay, md hinh SCP
ky
vpng cd dang nhu sau:
P
=
KZl,
Z2, Z4, Z6, Z8,
ZIO,
Zll, Z12, Z14, Z15,
Z18,
Z19)
Phan tich hdi quy thUc hien cho
md
hinh tren
ket hpp
cic
kiem dinh
cic
hien tUpng
da
cpng
tuyen,

1
R
,989(a)
R-
,977
R^hieu
chinh
,943
Sal so
chuan
cda
u^c
lirong
,0020
Thong
ke
Durbin-Watson
2,595
a Cdc bien
dpc
lap: (hdng sd),
Z19, Z15, Z2, Z8, Zll,
ZIO
b Bien
phu
thupc:
Y2
Bang
2:
Kiem dinh

trung binh
,000
,000
F
28,563
Sig.
,003'"'
a Cdc bien
dpc
lap: (hdng sd),
Z19, Z15, Z2, Z8, Zll,
ZIO
b Bien
phu
thupc:
Y2
Nguon:
Ket qud
truy sudt
tU
SPSS.
M6 hinh khong
xay ra
hien tupng
da
cpng
tuye'n
(ta't ca cic gii tri VIF deu nhd
hofn
10),

so' hoi quy
mo
hinh
SCP nhom
chi
nhanh
NHTM nha
nifoTc
Coefficients*
(h$
so' hoi quy)
1
Hang
so
Z,
Z,
ZIO
Zl,
Zis
Zl,
Hq
so
chira
chuun
hoa
B
.053
040
286
,026

-1,576
Sie.
,013
,035
,005
,093
,053
,024
.190
Cgng tuy^n
D$
chap
nhin
,273
,308
,210
.213
.298
,154
VIF
3,666
3,242
4,771
4.700
3.360
6.483
a Bien
phu
thupc:
Y2

vay (do thi phan sut giam), thudng phai vay
lai tif ngan hang me vdi lai suit thudng dUpc
dinh gii la khong "hpp ly". Trong khi khong
CO nhOfng
ccf sd,
dU
lieu minh chdng khic, nhom
nghien
cUu
phai chip nhan loai bien nay ra
khdi mo hinh de xua't cudi cimg.
Bien Z8: du
trii
thanh khoan/tdng tai san co
tic dpng am len hieu nang ROA.
Bien
ZIO:
tien gdi khong ky han/tien gdi co
ky ban co tic dpng
duofng
len hieu nang ROA.
Bien
Zll:
cho vay/huy dpng co tic dpng am len
hieu nang ROA.
Bien
Z15:
cho vay bang ngoai te/tdng cho vay
CO
tic dpng dUcfng len hieu nang ROA.

Bien Zll: cho vay/huy dpng c6 xu hudng giam
dan, phu hpp vdi ket qua hdi quy va ky vpng
dUa ra. NhU vay, cang giam ty le cho vay/huy
dpng cang tang ROA. Ket qua niy nhin manh
chinh sich da dang hoa cof cau suf dung
vd^n
ciia ngan hang, se gia tang hieu nang ROA
ciia nhom chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc.
Bien
Z15:
cho vay bang ngoai te/tdng cho vay
CO
xu hudng giam dan nhUng trong mdi quan
he tdng the cic nhin td tic dpng vao hieu
nang ROA cho tha'y, cho vay bang ngoai te/
tdng eho vay co hieu Ung dUofng. Dieu nay co
nghia, gia tang cho vay bang ngoai te se co
xu hudng tang hieu nang ROA cua ngan hang
qude doanh.
Bien Z19: tii san np ngoai te/tdng ngudn von
CO xu hudng giam dan, phu hpp vdi ket qua
hdi quy va ky vpng. Tuy nhien, trong giai
doan niy, tai san np ngoai te/tdng ngudn
vd^n
cua chi nhanh NHTM nha nUdc chiem
ty trpng tha'p va la chi tieu tic dpng thip
nha't trong cae nhan
td^
dUpc de cap. Vi vay,
can xem xet lai chinh sich giam tai san np

canh
canh tranh hien nay.
nganhangtn
So 61
•Thang
04/2011 "flli
NGHIEN
cufu
- TRAO DOI
Cung nhu vay, thong qua viec phit trien dich
vu, ehi nhinh NHTM nhi nUdc co the giam
dan ty le cho vay/huy dpng, nham giam thieu
rui ro tin dung va cai thien hieu nang boat
dpng cua minh.
Mpt van de khic ciing can dUpc quan tam:
trong khi tai san co ngoai te gop phan lim
gia tang hieu nang ciia cic ehi nhanh NHTM
nha nUde thi tai san np ngoai te lai lam giam
hieu ning do.
Sd^
lUpng
tai san co ngoai te,
theo kinh nghiem cua nhom nghien
cUu,
the
hien mpt vai tro va quyen
lUc
mang tinh lieh
sii ciia nhom cic chi nhinh NHTM nha nUdc
trong mpt thdi gian dii, trong linh vUc thanh

dii
be ngoai, chenh lech im
CO the la mpt lpi the nhUng tren thUc te, rui
ro van co the xay ra; chang ban, trong trUdng
hpp cac chi nhinh NHTM nha
nUdc
qui lam
dung viec cho vay bang ngoai te cho nhiing
khich hang thieu kha nang tii tao ngoai te
de tra np.
Han che cua nghien
ciiu
De tai nghien
cijfu
eung con mpt
sd^
ban che
nhi't dinh: pham vi nghien cUu (Tp. Hd Chi
Minh) bi ban che ve ngudn dd lieu toan he
thd^ng
ngan hang Viet Nam; chudi thdi gian 11
nim, dp tin cay 85% cung co the giam bdt di
y nghia cua cac ket qua phan tich. Cudi
ciing,
tic gia vin khong the co day du cic duf lieu
can thiet, de co the bd sung nhieu bien giai
thich khic, cung nhu de ly giai nhQng nghieh
ly xay ra trong qui trinh xuf ly va phan
tich"
^ -