V

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY

NGUYEN NGOC ANH

RESEACH ON FACTORS AFFECTING PRICES OF URBAN
RESIDENTIAL LAND IN THAI NGUYEN CITY, THAI
NGUYEN PROVINCE

Speciality: Land Managerment
Code: 62.85.01.03

SUMMARY OF PHILOSOPHY
DOCTORAL DISSERTATION

Thai Nguyen, year 2017


The dissertation has been completed at:
College of Agriculture and Forestry - Thai Nguyen University

Scientific Supervisor:
Assoc. Prof. Nguyen The Hung, PhD

Reviewer 1: …………………………………………………………
Reviewer 2: …………………………………………………………
Reviewer 3: …………………………………………………………

PhD. Dissertation will be presented and defended at the College of

1. The necessity of the study
In fact, the land price market in Thai Nguyen city is a significant
fluctuations, price increases strongly and rapidly over the years.
Meanwhile, to ensure the stability of economic - social issues, the
land price of the State does not increase which causes a huge
difference level compared to the market. This leads to the number of
shortcomings in managing and using land. Background on the set for
the show to systematically review the rationale and practice of land
valuation, assessing the impact of factors to the value of land as a
basis for completion of management and valuation to apply in
Vietnam in the coming time is necessary, given both theoretical and
practical. Stemming from this reality, thesis: "Research on factors
affecting price of urban residential land in Thai Nguyen City, Thai
Nguyen Province" to contribute to the work gradually improved
valuation of land urban in Thai Nguyen city - Thai Nguyen province.
2. Research Objectives
- Research on the relationship and differences between land urban
prices in the market and land prices by state regulation in Thai
Nguyen city.
- Identify and analyze the influence of a number of factors
affecting the land urban price to building land valuation standards to
fit with the price index in the market of Thai Nguyen city.
- Preliminary research building modeling land urban valuation in
the Thai Nguyen city to make forecasts for the future in a scientific
way, help the State capture, management of land prices, study the
formation and development of the real estate market, therefrom
giving appropriate management measures.
1



are in Vietnamese, and 22 documents are in foreign languages.
2


Chapter 1
DOCUMENT OVERVIEW
Through research and analysis of relevant issues in Vietnam and
other countries in the world, it shows that research results obtained
fairly systems in various fields:
- Concept of land market: There are many different concepts,
however, all most of them show that land market includes civil
transactions according to the law in an area and in a certain time. It
is active market for transactions such as: business, exchange, rent,
mortgage, demise,…
- Land prices, land valuation: In terms of overall, land price is the
selling price of land ownership, is the value of that land ownership in
space and determine time. Land valuation is an estimate of land
value in monetary form for an intended use has been identified, at a
determine time.
- Land valuation methods: To estimate value of real estate, can
use the methods of real estate valuation different. However, in the
operation valuation, we can not use a independently method which
between them have a relationship of mutual cross-checking.
- Experience management and valuation of countries in the
world: Synthesis and summarize the experience of countries in the
world in the use of land valuation methods, ways of organizing,
construction and public announced land price.
- Factors affecting land price: The study has shed light on the
factors affecting land price, On the basis of explaining to confirm the
reliability and effect of factors in calculation process of determining


4


- To evaluate the factors affecting the land urban price in the Thai
Nguyen city, the study surveyed 300 sample includes objects that the
staff of Resources & Environment Department, officials of land
registration office, real estate investors, brokers, ...
- To build predictive models to determine land urban prices in
Thai Nguyen city, researchers surveyed 250 samples are successfully
transferred property in the city.
2. Building investigation form
On the basis of information to be collected, studied conducting
investigation form designed to collect information on factors affecting
land prices and investigation form to collect information on land
urban plots transferred success in the Thai Nguyen city.
3. Sampling methods
Conducting a surveys of 300 samples to collect information
investigate the factors affecting land urban prices in Thai Nguyen
city, of which 216 samples are individual stock investing and real
estate business in the 18 wards of Thai Nguyen city (12 samples per
ward); 70 samples is the staff of Resources and Environment
departments, officials land registration office, ... and 14 samples is
the teller at the real estate broker center in the Thai Nguyen city.
Conducting a survey of 250 samples are real estate successfully
transferred located on 27 selected routes (region I: 9 routes; region II:
9 routes and region III: 9 routes). In addition, there is the consultation
of cadastral officer and teller in the real estate brokers center in the
Thai Nguyen city to get information and more accurate judgment.
2.3.4. Statistical methods, described

evaluate observed variables are correlated with each other in a scale
(factor). When significance level Sig. of Bartlet test ≤ 0,05 =>
observed variables are correlated linearly with representative factors.
- Interpretation inspection of observed variables with factor: Use
extracting factors standard including Eigenvalue index (representing
variation is explained by factors) and Total Varicance Explained
index (total variance extracted show that factors explain how much
percent). According to, Eigenvalue ≥1 and total variance ≥ 50%.
- Standard of factor loading: Factor loading is an indication to
ensure practical significance of EFA (Ensuring practical-significance),
indicates single correlation between variables with factors, is used to
assess EFA significance. According to Hair & ctg (1998), said that:
Factor Loading ≥ 0,55 if 100 ≤ sample size
but agricultural land still accounts for 65,15% of total natural land.
Agricultural production has been positive change in both quantity and
quality, development of commodity production, farming practices,
technical, productivity, output has been enhanced over the years.
3.1.3. Lan use and management
3.1.3.1. Land use
As result of land inventory on 01.01.2015, natural area of Thai
Nguyen city is 18.630,56 ha, by using the following purposes:
Farmland: 12.138,87 ha; Non-agricultural land: 6.122,94 ha. Unused
land: 368,75 ha.
3.1.3.2. Land management
Since 1993, land law was enacted with provisions for land
allocation stable, long-term users are tied to land use rights extend
close to ownership, management state of land use rights with
variables important change in terms of both quantity and quality. The
9


State has issued many legal documents specifying Land law, which
recognizes land valuable and is a special commodity, whereby the
transfer relations, trade ... more common place, but management to
more difficult and complicated.
3.2. Evaluation of construction, management and land urban price
movements follow prescribed by state in the Thai Nguyen city.
3.2.1. Management of land prices
To carry out construction of land price and land price announced,
Committee of Thai Nguyen Province are issued document: Designation
1365/2004/QD-UB in 21/06/2004; Designation 498/2007/QD-UB in
03/23/2007; Designation 03/2012/QD-UB in 21/02/2012 and
Designation 13/2015/QD-UB in 15/6/2015 of Committee, promulgating

without close to reality, because since the collection of data to build
land price until the list issued, the actual transfer price in the market
has a lot of volatility. There are also other factors such as the:
infrastructure, individual elements of land, land speculation, policies,
market information,...
* The difference between land price in the market and land prices
regulation in Thai Nguyen city may consider some basic reasons as follows:
The Land price list current of the State regulations only divided
city roads, no specific price list.
11


Valuation is not concerned with individual factors such as the area of
land plots, the shape, the width of the facade, environmental quality, ...
The State are still not institutions tracking systems land price on
the market as a basis for appropriate valuation.
Infrastructure is the foundation for development of the region, so
when the residential area is construction of infrastructure systems
well, where land values are rising.
Speculative factors governing the land market has created extreme
volatility of prices, land prices in the market at very high levels.
3.4. Factors affecting the land urban price in the study area.
3.4.1. Factors affecting
Table 3.9: Factors affecting land price
Numerical

Group factors affecting land prices

1


- Distance to the Market
- Distance to the School
- Distance to the bus station
- Distance to the Hospital
- Economic growth rate
- Supply - demand for land on the market
- Incomes and expenditures of population
- Volatility and Pricing
- interest rate
- Urbanization
- Land speculators
- Population density
- Medical and education
- Education of the population
- Vấn đề về phong thủy
- Environmental Quality
- Social Security
- Business environment
- Shape
- Area
- Depth
- Width
- Water and electricity system
- Communications system
- Transport system
- Legal status of land
- Policies for land use
- Planning limited




Number
5
3
4
3
3
3
3

8

Affecting land price

7

Cronbach’s Alpha
variable name
VT1; VT2; VT3; VT4; VT5
KT2; KT3; KT5
XH1; XH3; XH4; XH5
MT1; MT2; MT3
HT1; HT2; HT3
CB1; CB2; CB4
CS1; CS2; CS3
AH1; AH2; AH3; AH4;
AH5; AH6; AH7

Variables unuse
Number

3
4
5
6
7
8

Factor
group code

Variables

X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
X6
X7
Y (Biến phụ
thuộc)

VT1. VT2. VT3. VT4. VT5
KT2. KT4. KT5
XH1. XH3. XH4. XH5
MT1. MT2. MT3
HT1. HT2. HT3
CB1. CB2. CB4
CS1. CS2. CS3
AH1. AH2. AH3. AH4.

unstandardized regression coefficients in column B. We can to
estimate temporarily sample regression models prior to testing, the
model is expressed as follows:
Y = 0,041 + 0,450X1 + 0,085X2 + 0,027X3 + 0,201X4 + 0,296X5
+ 0,105X6 + 0,153X7
Table 3.14: Results of regression coefficients
Model

1

Constant
x1
x2
x3
x4
x5
x6
x7

Unstandardized
regression
B coefficient Std.error
0.041
.059
.450
.007
.085
.006
.027
.006

-2.191
-10.804
1.580
-.159
-2.713

.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000

.992
.948
.993
.946
.983
.988
.993

VIF
1.008
1.055
1.007
1.057
1.017
1.012

1.317

Percentage
34.17
6.45
2.05
15.26
22.48
7.97
11.62
100.00

Affects
order
1
6
7
3
2
5
4

Source: Analysis results

3.5. Preliminary studies modeling to determine land urban prices
in Thai Nguyen city
3.5.1. Selection and variable format for research models
Table 3.16: Variable format for land price regression model
Numerical
A


Qualitative

6
7

CR_MT
CR_DUONG

Width
Width street

Quantitative
Quantitative

8

CL_DUONG

Quality street

Qualitative

9

TT_LL

Communications

Qualitative

Good security

dummy

14

AN_BT

Nomal security

dummy

15

MTKD_TOT

Good business
environment

dummy

16

MTKD_KHA

Nomal business
environment

dummy



Quantitative

m
1 = Distance to utility ranging
from 0 - 1000m
0 = Distance to remaining utility
1 = Distance to utility ranging
from >1000 - 2000m
0 = Distance to remaining utility
m2
1 = square
0 = not square
m
m
1 = Good
0 = Nomal
1 = Good
0 = Nomal
1 = Good
0 = Nomal
1 = Good environment
0 = Remaining environment
1 = Normal environment
0 = Remaining environment
1 = Good security
0 = Remaining security
1 = Nomal security
0 = Remaining security
1 = Good business environment


+
+
+

Source: Reseach results
15


3.5.2. Construction and model selection
3.5.2.1. Statistics describing variables in the model
To conduct regression, study used 250 sample properties located
frontage on main roads in Thai Nguyen city and distributed them to
ward in the city.
3.5.2.2. Land price regression model
1. Land price regression model for first time
Running first regression model with all 18 independent variables,
the results as:
Table 3.18: Results of the first regression model
Model

1

(Constant)
KCTT
KCTI_1
KCTI_2
CR_DUONG
CL_DUONG
TT_LL

-11.219
7.647
2117.450
509.722
241.896
247.026
7966.060
762.546
2276.749
625.489
388.813 1180.560
-984.817 1021.522
15076.707 1046.562
3968.087
400.862
-1702.722
403.110
1344.354
453.689

Standardized
regression
Beta
-.248
.126
.044
.169
.139
-.004
.015

10.447
3.640
.329
-.964
14.406
9.899
-4.224
2.963

.217
.000
.001
.156
.000
.000
.890
.509
.144
.000
.328
.000
.000
.742
.336
.000
.000
.000
.003

.491

2.651
11.419
8.286
1.246
1.260
1.274
1.202

Source: Analysis results

Through analysis results in table 3.18, show that most of the
observed variables as expected and coefficient R2 = 0,897, variation
TT_LL, AN_BT, P_LY has reverse expectations. sig. value of
variables KCTI_2, TT_LL, DIEN_NUOC, D_TICH, CR_MT,
AN_TOT and AN_BT bigger 5% significance.
16


2. Land price regression model for second time
After removing variables P_LY, KCTI_2, TT_LL, DIEN_NUOC,
D_TICH, CR_MT, AN_TOT and AN_BT from model and again
running model with 10 remaining variables. We get following
results:
Table 3.20: Results of regression models for second time
Unstandardized

Standardized

regression


.778

-.767

.072

-.262 -10.617

.000

.747

1.339

1967.134

568.678

.112

3.459

.001

.433

2.310

CR_DUONG


H_THE

2737.723

456.343

.134

5.999

.000

.914

1.095

MTST_TOT

9155.560

752.149

.410

12.173

.000

.401


.848

1.179

MTKD_KHA

4425.717

385.573

.252

11.478

.000

.942

1.062

Q_HOACH

1101.007

454.518

.054

2.422


260,701*(CR_DUONG) + 2230,503*(CL_DUONG) + 2737,723*(H_THE) +

17


9155,560*(MTST_TOT) + 2720,909*(MTST_BT) + 16164,243*(MTKD_TOT) +
4425,717*(MTKD_KHA) + 1101,007*(QH)

3.5.2.3. Reviews and model testing
* Testing of multicollinearity phenomenon: In the table 3:20,
columns Variance Inflation Factor values (magnification variance)
VIF

5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Land price
Regression
Compare
model
method

Addresses
Located on CMT8 street from Loang Bridge to
railway into 3 roof storage
Located on Hoang Van Thu street From Dong
Quang circle to Ha Thai railway

Located on Duong Tu Minh street from Nui
Hong coal conveyor belt to Tan Long bridge
Located on Z115 street from Quang Trung street
to the end of student dormitory
Located on Quang Trung street: from Dan
overpass to Dan intersection go to Nui Coc +
100m (Dan Market)
Located on 3/2 street from Phu Xa street to
Secondary School Tich Luong
Located on CMT8 street from Street Thai
Nguyen Power Company - Thai Nguyen city
branch to Phan Dinh Phung street

Difference
(times)

12,315.62

11,500

816

28,584.37

30,500

1,916

15,960.03


9,500

461

11,923.65

11,000

924

14,119.23

15,500

1,381

19,353.47

18,500

853

31,168.69

32,500

1,331

12,270.32


16,500

1,013

7,672.64

7,500

173

22,543.48

25,000

2,457

Source: Calculated results and investigation

19


3.6. Solutions proposed to effectively perform the valuation and
management of land urban in Thai Nguyen city.
3.6.1. Facility proposed solutions
3.6.2. Solutions to implement management and land valuation
3.6.2.1. Capacity building awareness and computerization for the
organization of land prices management and valuation.
3.6.2.2. Building procedures to be applied the mass land price for
construction of land price list or land prices map of Provincial
People's Committees.


factors

contribute

22,48%;

Individual

factors

contributed 7,97% and Legal policy factors contributed 11,62%.
21


(4). Building land urban valuation modeling in Thai Nguyen city
for property located on main road in Thai Nguyen city, the following
models: GIA_DAT = 306,452 - 0,767 * (KCTT) + 1967,134 *
(KCTI_1) + 260,701 * (CR_DUONG) + 2230,503 * (CL_DUONG)
+ 2737,723 * (H_THE) + 9155,560 * (MTST_TOT) + 2720,909 *
(MTST_BT) + 16164,243 * (MTKD_TOT) + 4425,717 *
(MTKD_KHA) + 1101,007 * (QH). To apply results regression
model, the study conduct mass land valuation some real estate
representative for Thai Nguyen city.
(5). Propose some possibility solution to fulfill good management
and land urban valuation in Thai Nguyen city, Solution is: (1)
Capacity

building