TAC
OONG
COA
CHfNH SACH
TL/
DO HOA NHAP
KHAU
O6|
Vdl
TANG
TRUdNG
KINH
T^
6
VIET
NAM: MOT PHAN TICH THEO
KENH
Dinh Thi Hoang
Yen'*
Tom tat
Viet Nam, mdt nen kinh
te
chuyen ddi, da
bit diu
cdng eude cai each kinh te lich
sii
vao nam 1986 va tU dd theo dudi ea hai
hudng phat trien thi trUdng va Nha nUdc
quan ly. Nghien eUu nay tap trung vao cac
chinh sach
tii

ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh te khi da giai thich
dly du thdng tin ve cae kenh lien ket (ehi
tieu cua Chinh
phii,
chit lUdng
kinh te vi
md,
chenh
lech thi trUdng chd den, thUdng
mai ndi dia, FDI, va xuat khau). Nghien
cifu
nay ket luan chi
sd'tu
do
hoi
thUdng mai cif
tang len mdt ddn vi thi tang trUdng kinh te
tang len dUdc 0,304 diem phan tram. Trong
dd, tang nang
liic
cdng nghe cua xuat khau,
dn dinh kinh te vi md, va thUdng mai ndi dia
hieu qua la cac yeu
to
chu yeu,
m.di
yeu td
ehiem khoang tif 25-30% tdng tac ddng
ciia
cae kenh.

lai
dUa ra rat nhieu ket qua
khic
nhau ve
mdi quan he giUa thUdng mai, ma chinh
xic
hdn la
tii
do hoa thUdng mai va tang
trUdng kinh te,
Cd ba ly do chinh tai sao nhUng ket qua
lai khac nhau. ThU nhat, viec chpn chi sd'
cho tu do hoa thUdng mai cd the la
sd
lieu
ve tinh hinh thiic hien heae la xu hUdng
thUdng mai theo ly thuyet (Leamer 1988).
Tuy nhien,
nhUng
bien phap thUdng mai
anh hudng ldn den ket qua thUdng mai,
dac biet la nhUng bien phap han che
thUdng mai va nhUng hang rao phi thue
quan (Sachs va Warner 1995,
Andriamananjara va Nash 1997),
Thii
hai,
viec
liia
chpn eho bien giai thich eho

TRL/dNG
KINH
Tf
vi
du
tich
luy va
nang suat (Frankel
va
Remer 1999),
quy md thi
trUdng (Ades
va
Glaeser 1999). Quan trpng
hdn la
nhUng
kenh
tac
ddng ciia chinh
sich
thUdng
mai
vdi tang trUdng
phu
thude
vao
tinh trang
dac
thu
eiia

trUdng, chii khdng
ehi
ddn
thuin
la
phan
tich tUdng quan hoac
la hdi quy
ciia
mdt
phUdng trinh
duy
nhat.
Y
tUdng
chd
phan
tich thee kenh
da
dUde
de
xuat trong
cac
cdng trinh ciia Salvatore (1983), Fisher
(1993),
Sprout
va
Weaver (1993),
Wacziarg (2001),
va

ehi
sd'
tdng
hdp cho dp md
thUdng
mai va xay
diing
mdt md
hinh
de
udc
lUdng
ddng thdi
bing
phUdng phap
binh phUdng
tdi
thieu
3
budc (3SLS).
Can
phai nhan manh rang viec
ap
dung thed
each tiep
can
ciia Wacziarg (2001)
cho sd'
lieu chudi thdi gian
la Uu

nhat.
Da
ed rat
nhieu nghien cifu
ve tU do
hoi
thUdng
mai eua
Viet
Nam, dac
biet
la
nghien ciiu
ve qua
trinh
tU do
hoi
nhap
khau
ke tif khi
Viet
Nam
tien hanh
cai
each
kinh
te, chu yeu
dUdi
sii
bao trd

Trong pham
vi
kien thUe
eiia
chiing
tdi,
ehUa
cd mpt
nghien
ciiu
nao
sif
dung phan
tich kenh
de
dinh
vi
nhiing
md'i
quan
he
giUa
ehinh sach
tii
do hoa
nhap khau
vdi
tang trUdng kinh
te d
Viet

each
noi
sinh.
R5 rang
la
chinh sach
tU do hoa
nhap
khau khdng
the
thiie
hien dUdc trpn
ven neu
khdng
cd
sii
ket
ndi
vdi
nhUng
ehinh sach
kinh
te vi md
khac,
va mdi
quan
he nay can
phai dUdc dieu
tra de
thiic hien

trinh
tU do
hoi
la dd bd
nhiing quan
ly
nay. Mae
dii
dien quan
ly
nhap khau
cua
Chinh
phu da thu hep lai de Uu
tien nhap
khau
miy
mdc
thiet
bi va
nhflng nguyen
lieu
diu
vao
eIn
thiet
cho san
xuat nhUng
hoi
ddn

thUdng
mai va
thaeh thiic
kha
nang
duy tri
sii
dn
dinh kinh
te
vi
md cua
Chinh phii.
Mue dieh eiia
bai
viet
nay
trUde tien
la md
ta nhflng
dac
diem
eua
ehinh sach
tii
do hoa
ddi
vdi
nhap khau eiia Chinh phii Viet
Nam

chi
so
tu
do hoa
nhap khau ciia Viet
Nam
2.1 Chinh sach
tii
do hod
nhap khdu
vd nhiing thay
ddi cua
nhap khdu
Ddi
vdi
kinh
te
Viet
Nam, Dai hdi
Dang
VI
nam
1986 dUdc
coi
nhU
la mpt
moc lich
sif
tren
con

NHAP
KHAU
D6|
VOI
TANG
TRLfdNG
KINH Tf
NGHIEN
CUU
-
TRAP DPI
[J^
Nam dupe tien hanh ngay trUde
sU sup dd
cua
Bfle
tudng Berlin
nam
1989,
sii
kien
lam
thay
ddi
tinh hinh kinh
te
ehinh
tri
qud'c
te,

binh dang
va
cung
cd
ldi".
Cau lac bd
Paris
nam
1993
da
giup
ndi
lai GDA cho Viet Nam, khdi xUdng
qua
trinh
binh thudng
hoa vdi cac td
chUc kinh
te tai
chinh qud'c
te
trong nhflng
nam 1990. Vao
diu
nam
2007, Viet
Nam da ky
hiep dinh
thUdng
mai

Kinh
te
len
gin
200
nUde
va
vung lanh
thd. The ky
21
da
danh
dau
sii
hdi
nhap
tap
trung
va
rpng
rai cua
Viet
Nam vdi
kinh
te the
gidi,
bat
diu bing
hiep dinh thUdng
mai

qud'c
te
vfla
dap Ung
tinh hinh phat trien
kinh
te cua dat
nUdc. Song song
vdi
nhflng
van
de nay
sinh trong
qua
trinh
tii
do hoa,
he thd'ng luat phap
va
dinh
che da
dupe
thanh
lap va
lien
tue cai td.
Cach
thfle
quan
ly xuat nhap khau thay

dUde
duy tri
nhat
quan
la hd trd
xuat khau ddng thdi thay
the
nhap khau,
trd
giup
vai trd
cd' hflu
eua cae
ddanh nghiep
nha
nUdc. Treng
qua
trinh
chuan
hi hdi
nhap kinh
te the
gidi
(2001-
2006),
mpt
loat
elc
hoat ddng thUdng
mai

ddi hang
nam nhU
trUdc.
Dac
diem
cua
chinh sach thUdng
mai nay
dUdc
tdm tlt
trcng
Phu luc 1, neu len
diin bien
tii
do hoa
vdi ehinh sach
han che
nhap khau hang tieu
dung
de
danh ngudn
tai
chinh
cho
nhap
khau
may
mdc
va
nhien lieu

vdi
viec khuyen khich
cac nganh cdng nghiep hUdng
ve
xuat khau.
Luat thue Xuat Nhap khau
cua
Viet
Nam
dUdc ban hanh
lln
diu
tien vao nam 1987,
sau
dd dUdc siia ddi
vai lln
theo hudng md rpng so'
ddng thue
ma He
thd'ng
Hai hoa hoa (HS),
tang sd'ddng thue trong khoang
tU
0-5%
va gia
ban so' ngay thanh toan thue nhap khau
cho
dau
vao cua cac
nganh xuat khau.

va thue
phd
thdng
(bing
150% mUc
thue
MFN)
cho
nhflng nUdc
cdn lai.
Ben canh
dd,
Viet
Nam
quan
ly
chat
che
ngoai
te
cho
cac
cdng
ty
thUdng
mai bang viec
yeu
cau ket
hdi
va

liic
tfl
1%
den 2%.
Vao
thdi diem cuoc khiing hoang
tai
chinh Chau
A nam
1997, Viet
Nam
thit
chat
quan
ly
ngoai
te, dac
biet
la quy
dinh
ddi
vdi
cac cdng
ty
thUdng
mai cd
ngudn
thu
ngoai
te

mai
kinh nien
van la mpt
thaeh
thflc
chinh
ddi vdi
quan
ly
ngoai
hdi
ciia
Ngan hang
Nha
nUdc
Viet Nam.
Ket
qua
thiie hien chinh sach
tU do hoa
nhap khau
dUde
bieu
thi
trong Bang
1.
S(f29(1U12/2009)
OUAN
Lt
KINH

binh
quan
cua
Viet
Nam
Tdng
kim
ngach nhap khau
(ty
USD)
Sir
phu thuoc
vao
nhap khau
(%)
Suat thue binh quan
don
gian
(%)
Ty
le
doanh
thu
thue
(%
nhap khau)
1986
2.2
8.2
6.8

Ngudn:
Tinh
toan
ciia
tac gia tir sd
lieu
ciia
Tdng
cue
Thd'ng
ke
va Athukorala.
Tdng
kim
ngach nhap khau tang trung
binh
17.7%/nam,
tfl
khoang
2 ty USD nam
1986
len 45 ty
USD
nam
2006.
Su phu
thupe
vao nhap khau,
ty so'
gifla tdng

len 13.4% nam 1997 va 17,4% nam
2006,
Theo
cac cam ket
vdi
WTO,
bit diu
tfl
nam 2008, Viet
Nam se
phai
giam
thue
nhap khau trung binh
ddn
gian xud'ng
cdn
13,4%
trdng thdi gian
tU 6 den 11 nam. Mac
dfl doanh
thu
thue tang
len, ty le
doanh
thu
thue/tdng
gia tri
nhap khau giam
di tfl sau

nhap khau
phu
thude
chu yeu vao
pham
vi
nhflng
han che
bing
thue quan
va
nhflng hang
rao phi
thue
(NTB).
Trong
khi mUc
thue
suit giam di
trong
cac nam qua thi cd
nhieu
lo
ngai ddi
vdi viec
dd bd cac
NTB,
De cd the
tien hanh
phan tich

danh
dau
bing
sU
ra ddi cua
Quyet dinh
46 la met
giai ddan
thdng thdang
cua
chinh
sich
nhap khau.
Dc
dd,
mdt
bien
gia
bieu
thi
thdi gian
chd
viec
dd
bd NTB
ciia
Viet
Nam (DUM)
bing
1

ddi lam
so'
lUdng
cac
ddng
thue tang len.
Dd
vay,
de
thay
cho
mflc thue,
ty
so'
doanh
thu
thue/tdng
kim
ngach nhap
khau (TARIFF) dupe
sii
dung.
Ty
le phu
thupe
vao
nhap khau
dUde
chpn
la

phUdng trinh
1.
Cic
bien cdng
cu
dUdc
sii
dung
la mflc
dp
lien
lac
qud'c
te (vi tri dia ly),
cdng
nghiep
hoa Gao
dpng cdng nghiep), dien
ticli
dat canh
tic sin
cd (dat dai), va
sii
khac biet
gifla
gia
xuat khau
va gia
nhap khau (ToT).
Chi

Mlib
cang
nhd^
(ve
gia tri
tuyet
dd'i) thi
chinh sach
nhap khau cang
tii
do.
(1)
M =
5,+5,*
INCOME
+
^3 * TARIFF
+
5,
*
DUM
OUAN
Lt
KINH
it
Sif 29 (11 f 12/2009)
TAC OONG
CUA
CHINH
SACH

35.247***
3.359
INCOME
10.618
1.647
12,362***
10,308
TARIFF
-6.615**
-2.455
-7.195***
-5.825
DUM
7,044
0,259
Ghi chu:
*** mirc
y
nghia 1%,
** mire
y
nghia
5%.
Ngudn: Tinh loan
ciia
tac gia.
Bien cdng
cu: vi tri dia ly, lao
ddng cdng
nghiep,

mUe 48.3
trong giai
doan 1986-2000. Kiem
tra
quan
he
nhan
qua Granger
xac
nhan rang Mlib, TAR-
IFF,
va DUM la
bien
tao ra M.
Ngoai
ra,
ket
qua
Ude lUdng ciia
phUdng trinh
1
khdng
cd
bien
DUM
cung
dUde
trinh
bay
trong

phuang phdp
udc
lupng
ciia
Wacziarg
Theo Wacziarg (2001), nhflng kenh lien
he gifla chinh sach thUdng
mai va
tang
trudng kinh
te
dUdc dieu
tra de tim ra
tic
dpng
Idn
nhat ciia ehinh sach thUdng
mai
dd'i
vdi
tang trUdng.
Dac
biet
la tac
ddng
ddi
vdi
tang trUdng kinh
te
dudc

luy hay la dau tU ndi dia)
va chuyen giao cdng nghe
(gdm ty le
xult
khau cdng nghiep,
va ty le FDI
tren GDP).
Dp
md
thUdng
mai
tang cudng tang
trUdng thdng
qua mdt tap hdp
chinh sach
kinh
te vi md ly
tudng
vi du md
rdng tien
te,
giam tham
hut
ngan sach,
va
giam
nd
nUdc ngoai trong
dai ban. Ndi mdt
each

ngoai
thi
viec tang them
quy
md cua
chinh
phu
khdng
phii
luc nao
cung
cd ldi cho
tang trUdng
do nd se lam
giam
bdt vai trd cua khu
viic
tU
nhan
va
gay
ra
viec danh thue
qui
mUc.
Do dd, tac
ddng
lan
truyen
ciia

thiep
cua
chinh
phu.
Nhflng
lap
luan
eho
phan
bd va
phan
phd'i dupe
bat
ngudn
tfl ly
thuyet kinh
te
cd dien
bi chi
phdi
bdi ly
thuyet
ve ldi the
so sanh. Theo
dd, cac
qud'c
gia deu cd ldi
khi tham
gia
thUdng

tu
ndi
chung
va cho
hang
hoa tU ban ndi
S6'29 (11f
12/2009)
QUAN
Lt
KINH
it
MB
NGHIEN
Cl/l)
-
TRAO DOI
TAC DONG
CUA
CHfNH
SACH
Tl/DO
HOA
NHAP
KHAU
Odl
VOI
TANG
TRI/SNG
KINH

hi bdp mee hdn, tflc
la cd
nhflng dieu kien
td't chd tang trudng hdn cae nUdc ddng
ciia.
Ldi
ich
ddng
eua
thUdng
mai
dUde
rut
ra tfl ly thuyet mdi ve tang trUdng ndi sinh
trong
dd
nhan manh
vai trd
quan trpng
ciia ddi mdi cdng nghe
va
nang suat trong
qui
trinh phat trien.
Ldi ich
ddng ciia
thUdng mai ddi vdi tang trUdng kinh
te cd
the dUdc the hien thdng qua viec eai thien
cac yeu td' nang suat tong hdp (TFP),

la
sang nhflng hang cdng nghe
cao
ciia cae nUdc Ddng A. FDI thudng
di
vdi
tu
do
hoi
thUdng mai
va
mang vao
dat
nUde
dupe
diu
tu
nhflng hang
tU ban
hien
dai
va viec
phd
bien kien thflc chuyen
mdn,
nhflng yeu td'cd the kich thich tang trUdng
manh hdn
ea
gia
tri

dac
diem
ciia
bien cdng
cu
trong viec xU
ly
tinh ndi sinh,
va
hieu qua
eua
quy hdi
binh phUdng
td'i
thieu tdng
quat
hel.
Wacziarg (2001)
da
sfl
dung mpt
tap hpp nhieu bien cdng
eu de
didn
ta
sii
phit
trien
eiia
nhflng

trUdng
d
Viet
Nam
trong giai doan
1986-
2006.
Tuy nhien, khac vdi Wacziarg (2001),
nghien cflu nay khdng gdp xuat khau trong
ehi
so' dp
md ma
sii
dung
ehi
so' tU
do hoa
nhap khau
de
chi
ro
viec
dd
bd nhflng quan
ly
cua Nha
nUde
ddi
vdi
nhap khau

chat
lUdng (bing
viec tang
len
ludng hang hoa tU ban vao qud'c gia
va
bing
xu hudng
ldi
nhuan tang theo
quy md do
chuyen
mdn
hoi).
O dly,
tic
ddng
ve mat
quy md eua
diu
tU
ddi
vdi tang trudng dUdc
do ludng true tiep
bing
bien vd'n tU ban
va
tac ddng ve mat chat
lUdng
cua dau tU

hieu qua trong
viec phan
bd va
phan phd'i
eua
vd'n
tfl ban
nhu trong
ly
thuyet truyen thd'ng. Nhflng
gia dinh nglm
dd la
viec
gia
tang
sfl
tham
gia
cua khu
viic
phi Nha nfldc trong thfldng
mai ndi
dia se
td't hdn eho tang trfldng kinh
te
khi
thUdng
mai
dUde
tii

Vi du
nhfl ehung
tdi
khdng can bie'n
chi
sd dan chu, bie'n gia ve dao,
sii
phan
hoa
ngdn ngfl
dan
tde, hoac bie'n
ve
QUAN Lt KINHTE
Slf29(1U12/2009)
TAC
DONG
CUA CHINH SACH
TU DO HOA
NHAP KHAU D6I VOI TANG TRUONG KINH
Tf
NGHIEN CIA) -
TRAP
DPI
[^H
ddc lap sau chien tranh de dieu chinh
sii
khac
biet cua cac nUdc. Thay vi vay, mpt vai bien
cho dan

so'
Ifldng
Y A K
^^
r
—
-
—
-\-a
—
-H(1-«)
—
Y A
K
L
Diia
tren dang thflc ddn gian nay, trdng
dd td'c dp tang trfldng dUdc gia dinh chi la
phu thude vao tang trUdng ciia cdng nghe,
vd'n hflu hinh, lao ddng va mdt danh sach
cac bie'n dflde dfla vao vi tri ciia dinh td'
cdng nghe (TFP)de thau tdm nhflng ldi ich
ddng. Phfldng trinh tang trUdng GDP thay
ddi
dUde
the hien trong phUdng trinh 3.
Nhflng chfl cai thUdng dien ta td'c dp tang
trUdng (y, k, va 1), va 6 kenh la chi tieu cua
chinh phii (GOV), chinh sach vi md
(MACRO), meo md gia ca (BMP), phan

+
/u^*
DTRA
+
/u^*
FDI
+
^,*
X
Bie'n cdng cu: lao ddng nam, lao ddng nfl,
dan
so'15,
dan sd'65, eao dang, mat dp, ODA,
so dfl an FDI, ToT
Sau dd, mdt he thd'ng phfldng trinh cd cau
dupe xay diing de tinh den vai trd eua Mlib
trcng tat ca cac phUdng trinh cho eae bie'n
kenh trong dd tflng bie'n kenh ehinh lai dflde
giai thich bang nhflng bie'n kenh khac.
Nhflng thdng sd'cho tflng bie'n di theo nhflng
tranh luan cua nghien eflu kinh vien ve
mdi
quan he gifla thfldng mai va tang trudng
cflng vdi phan tich ve tfl de
hdi
nhap khau
cua Viet Nam va tinh hinh kinh te vi md.
Phan tich ve 6 kenh dflde trinh bay trong
phln dfldi day.
3.2.1.

nhflng
bing
chUng eua tang trudng kinh
te do xuat khau d cac nUde Chau a
chi
ra
vai trd quan trpng cua ed sd ha
ting
hd trd
cho xuat khau. Vinold va cdng sU (1990)
da liet ke mdt loat nhflng van de kem hieu
qua cua cd sd ha
ting
da han che su dap
flng eua tdng cung dd'i vdi nhflng thay ddi
chinh sach, dac biet la mdt he thd'ng mien
thue va tiep can khdng han che cho
diu
vao nhap khau yeu kem, he thd'ng cang,
cae phfldng tien truyen thdng va giae
thdng khdng dly dii, it thdng tin va nhflng
dieh vu nghien cflu thi trfldng cho cac nha
xult khau. Do vay, van cdn chfla
chae
ring
quy md eua Nha nfldc ldn thi td't cho
tang trfldng kinh te cua Viet Nam.
»r29nui2/2oog)
QUAN
Lt

20%
nam 1986. Mac du giao due, y te, va
cac dich vu xa hdi khac da
dUde
xa hdi hoa,
mdt phln ldn cua chi tieu Chinh phu la
danh cho tieu dung vang lai (ehiem
52,54%
nam 2006, giam so vdi mflc 72,5%
nam 1986). Trung binh giai doan 1986-
2006,
chi tieu vd'n cua Chinh phu chiem
khoang 27% tdng chi.
Diu
tU cua chinh
phu gia cd'dinh 1994 chiem khoang 53,8%
tdng
diu
tu xa hdi, trong dd 52,6% tfl ngan
sach Nha nUdc, 13,6% tfl nd Chinh phu, va
14,6%
tfl SOE va nhflng ngudn khac (chu
yeu la tfl ODA). Mdt
nfla
dau tU eua Chinh
phu trong giai doan 2000-2005 chay vao
phat trien cd sd ha tang bao gdm dien, gas,
cap nUdc, van chuyen, dfl trfl, va thdng
tien lien lac bdi vi Viet Nam
vin

(BMP). Hai bie'n nay dUdc chpn vi chung
cd quan he triic tiep vdi chinh sach tai
khcl
va tinh hinh dn dinh kinh te vi md,
nhiem vu trung tam cua chinh phu Viet
Nam. Dau eua bie'n
Eg dii
kien la am, the
hien viec giam bdt vai trd cua chinh phu
khi dat nUde bUde vao qua trinh tfl do
hoi
manh hdn va sfl gia tang vai trd
ciia
khu
viic
tu nhan. Ben canh dd,
S3
dflde dfl kien
la dUdng va
84
am de phan anh vai trd eua
chat
lUdng
td't hdn eiia chinh sach kinh te
vi md cung nhU tac dpng xau cua gia ca bi
bdp meo dd'i vdi quy md ciia chinh phii.
(4) GOV
=
€,+£,*
Mlib

Tinh dn dinh ciia kinh te vi md cd xu
hudng tac dpng tich
ciic
den tang trfldng
bing
viec giam nhflng that thfldng cua gia
ca va han che tham hut ngan sach va nd
ehinh phu, nhd dd ma giam
tie
ddng thay
the vai trd tU nhan cua chinh phu va cung
cd'ele cdng ty trong nUdc. Khi tinh dn dinh
cua kinh te vi md, hieu
life
cua chi'nh sach,
va viec thflc thi cac hdp ddng khdng
dflde
duy tri, thi mdt qud'c gia khd cd the tang
trfldng d mflc dp cao trong mpt thdi gian
dn dinh va trong mot mdi trfldng kinh
ddanh md (Panagariya 2004).
Nhiem vu ldn nhat ciia Chinh
phii
Viet
Nam d giai doan ban dau ciia cai each la
dn dinh tinh hinh kinh te vi md. Dat nfldc
ci trong tinh trang dinh dd'n vdi lam phat
phi ma len den 874.7% vao thang 12 nam
1986.
Doi tien nam 1985

TRAO
DO!
[jJ|i|J
tinh trang tham hut. Ket qua la nd Nha
nfldc chdng chat va dflde thanh toan chii
yeu bang viec can
ddi
tien mat trong cac
ngan hang npi dia va vay nd nfldc ngdai.
Do vay, quan ly kinh te vi md cua Viet
Nam tap trung vao cac chinh sach dn dinh
hoa tai khoa va tien te. Dieu nay dflde the
hien thdng qua mdt chi so' gdp gdm ed 3
bie'n vi md: nd nfldc ngoai eua Nha nUde
tren GDP
(zl),
tham hut tai khoa tren
GDP (z2), va chenh lech gifla td'c dp tang
trfldng tien rpng M2 va td'c dp tang trfldng
san Ifldng (z3). Viec xay dflng bie'n
MACRO la dec lap gid'ng nhfl bie'n Mlib,
do dd phfldng trinh (5) khdng
nim
trong
he thd'ng phfldng trinh kenh. Quyen sd'cho
zl den z3 la 1/3 va gia tri ciia chung
nim
trong khoang tfl 1 eho de'n 21 tuy theo thfl
tfl sap xep trong giai doan nghien cflu. Chi
so'

den mdi trUdng kinh
te
vi
md. Ngeai ra, dau
dii
kien cua
ri3
va
r|4
la
am, the hien
tic
ddng trai chieu
ciia
tieu
dung ehinh phu qua mflc va sfl meo md
ciia ehinh sach kinh
te vi
md.
3.2.3. Kenh
thdi
ba: Chenh lech thi
trudng chp den (BMP)
Chinh sach ngoai hdi cung la mdt cdng
cu kinh
te
vi md quan trpng, dac biet ddi
vdi cac nen kinh te md cfla, do tac ddng
trflc tiep dd'i vdi nhap khau va xuat khau.
Ty gia cd xu hfldng dflde dinh gia qua mflc

d\i6c
gpi la chenh lech ty
gii
(BMP)
va dflde chpn lam mdt chi
sd
cho sfl bdp
meo
gii
ca bdi vi nd phan Inh toan dien va
ngay lap tflc chinh sach quan ly ngoai hdi
eua Viet Nam. Vao nam 1997, ty gia hd'i
doai tren thi trfldng mat gia ngay lap tflc
khi ddng Viet Nam hi pha gia lam cho
BMP dan ra. Ket qua la xult khau va
nhap khau co lai nhanh chdng, nhflng
chi
sd ve chi tieu ehinh phu va kinh te vi md
cflng bi suy giam.
Bie'n BMP dflde xac dinh trdng phfldng
trinh (7), vdi
diu
cua Y2<0, ed nghia la tfl dd
hoa nhap khau se lam ty gia it meo md hdn
nhd cd quan ly kinh te
vi
md hdp ly va thu
hep gia nfldc ngcai va trong nfldc. Chi tieu
chinh phu (GOV) va tdng clu trong nfldc
(DTRA)

Bie'n cdng cu: mat dp, di hpc, ToT
Sir29(1U12/2009)
QUAN
Lt
KINH
it
MB
NGHIEN OiiU
•
TRAD
DDI
TAC
DONG
CUA
CHINH
SACH
TU DO HOA
NHAP
KHXU
06|
VOI
TANG
TRUSNG
KINH
Tf
3.2.4. Kenh thit
tii:
Thuang
mqi
npi

ea cae nganh trong nen kinh te sfl dung
diu
ra eua nhflng nganh khac lam dau
vao eua minh cung
dflde
hfldng ldi nhd chi
phi
diu
vao thap hdn nhd ed he thd'ng
phan phdi td't hdn.
Thfldng mai ndi dia cua Viet Nam dflde
thflc hien
bing
he thd'ng tem phieu cho
den tan cud'i nhflng nam 1980. Sau dd he
thd'ng nay dflde thay bang he thd'ng theo
ed che thi trfldng vdi sfl tham gia eua khu
vfle
nfldc ngoai vao nam 1994. Mac du he
thd'ng ban le trong nfldc van cdn manh
mun, ca ve ed sd ha
ting
va quan ly, doanh
sd' ban trong nfldc tang len manh me
trung binh d mflc
17.2%/nam
va chiem
khoang 80% cua tdng tieu dung. Vao nam
2007,
td'c dp tang trfldng cua thfldng mai

lUdng
DTRA vdi bie'n giai
thich la Mlib, xua't khau (X), dai dien cho
quan he gifla thfldng mai trong nfldc va
qud'c te.
Dii
kien tfl do hoa nhap khau va
xuat khau se kich thich thfldng mai ban
le ndi dia, tflc la
?^2>0
va
^3>0.
(8) DTRA
=
\+l,*Mlib
+
X,*BMP
+
X,*X
Bie'n cdng cu: Thanh thi, ToT, mat dp
3.2.5.
Kenh thii nam: Dau tU triic tiep
nudc ngodi (FDI)
Dd'i vdi elc nfldc dang phat trien, FDI la
ngudn chuyen giao cdng nghe va nang cao
nang
suit
quan trpng. Nhflng phan doan
san xuat qud'c te thfldng dflde thflc hien
bdi cac cdng ty FDI. Nhd cd

dflde siia ddi theo hfldng flu tien cho khu
vfle FDI. Vao thing 11/2007, 68,55% FDI
thflc hien danh cho khu vfle cdng nghiep
va xay dflng, 6,93% cho ndng nghiep, lam
nghiep, va ngfl nghiep, 24,52% cho khu
vUe dich vu. Khi nen kinh te cdn ddng
ciia,
khu vUe nha nfldc trong san xuat va
thfldng mai van cdn
la
chii dao nhflng san
lUdng
cdng nghiep va gia tri xuat khau
3 QUAN Lt KINH
TC
Sd
29
(11+12/2009)
TAC DONG
CUA
CHINH
SACH
TUDO
HOA
NHAP
KHAU
D6|
VOI
TANG
TRUdNG KINH

FDI trong nen kinh te Viet Nam
d\i6c
khao sat d mflc vi md
bing
phfldng trinh
(9) xac dinh nhflng dinh to' cua ty trpng
san Ifldng cdng nghiep cua FDI va meo md
tren thi trfldng chd den (BMP) de phat
hien ra
mdi
lien he tfldng tac gifla
diu
tfl
nfldc ngoai va chinh
sich
ty gia. De kiem
tra tac ddng bd trd eua tfl do hda thUdng
mai dd'i vdi FDI,
dii
kien
02>O
va
93<0.
(9)
FDI =
e,+e2*Mlib+
e,*BMP
Bie'n cdng cu: Thanh thi, ODA, cao
ding,
ToT

Nam. De danh gia tien bd nang
liie
cdng
nghe, bie'n gia eho xuat khau se la ty le
hang xuat khau cdng nghiep trong tdng
kim ngach xuat khau. Tuy nhien, do van
de thieu sd' lieu thd'ng ke, ty trpng xult
khau cdng nghiep nang va khoang san
tren tdng kim ngach xult khau se
dUde
sfl
dung cho bie'n xuat khau (X). Trong
phUdng trinh (10), X dUdc gia dinh la bi
anh hudng bdi tU do hoa nhap khau (Mlib)
va quan ly ngoai hdi (BMP). Ky vpng
diu
la
(B2>0
va
a)3<0
do nhap khau tU do hdn
cd the chuyen giao ham
lUdng
cdng nghe
eho xuat khau va ldi nhuan chenh lech ty
gia cd the lam han che xuat khau
(10)
X = (o^+co2*Mlib + (o^BMP
Bie'n cdng cu: ToT,
dit

Tieng Viet
1
Dinh Thi My Loan (2007), "Thi trUdng ban le
Viet
Nam
thcfi
ky hau
gia
nhap WTO va van
de kiem soat canh tranh trong linh
vi(c
nay",
»(29(1U12/200g)
QUAN
Lt
KINH
it
MB
NGHIEN
cuu
-
TRAO DOI
TAC DONG CUA CHINH SACH TU DO HOA
NHAP
KHAU
001 vOl
TANG
TRUONG KINH
Tf
Tap chi Thong tin vd

161-187.
• Barro Robert J, (1989), "Economic Growth in
a Cross Section of Countries", The Quarterly
Journal of Economics, Vol. 106 (2): 407-
443.enges.
• David Dollar (2002), "Reform, Growth, and
Poverty in Vietnam", Policy Research
Working Paper, WPS 2837, The World Bank,
Development Research Group,
Macroeconomics and Growth.
• Edwards Sebastian (1992), "Trade
Orientation, Distortions and Growth in
Developing Countries", Journal of
Development Economics, Vol. 39: 31-57.
• Frankel Jeffrey A. and Romer David (1999),
"Does Trade Cause Growth?", The American
Economic Review. Vol. Vol. 89 (3): 379-399.
• Goh Ai-Ting and Wan Henry Y (2005),
"Fragmentation, Engel's Law and Learning",
Review of International Economics. Vol. 13
(3):
518-528.
• Harrison Ann (1996), "Openness and Growth:
A Time-Series, Cross-Country Analysis for
Developing Countries", Journal of
Development Economics. Vol. 48: 419-447,
Jenkins Rhys (2004), "Globalization,
Production, Employment and Poverty:
Debates and Evidence", Journal of
International Development. Vol. 16: 1-12.

Policy Research Working Paper, WPS3076,
The World Bank, East Asia and Pacific
Region, Povery Reduction and Economic
Sector Unit,
Plummer Michael, G (1995), "An Analytical
Survey of Vietnam's External Policy
Challenges", Journal of Aisan Economics,
Vol, 6 (3): 327-349,
OUAN Lt KINH
it
Stf 29(1^12/2009)
TAC DONG
CUA
CHlNH
SACH
TU
DO
HOA
NHAP
KHAU
D6I
VOI
TANG
TRUONG KINH
Tf
NGHIEN CUU
•
TRAO DOI
|'j^,'|;]
• Rodriguez Francisco and Rodrik Dani (1999), Activity, The Brookings Institution. Vol. 1995