ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI
TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KHOA HỌC TỰ NHIÊN
TRỊNH HOÀNG DƯƠNG ĐÁNH GIÁ BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU Ở VIỆT NAM
BẰNG CÁC CHỈ SỐ BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU

LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC

NG DN KHOA HC:
TS. NGUYN TH HIN THUN I-2012

ii
MC LC

M U 1
1: 

 3
1.1. Bng chng bi bi
u 3
1.2. Mt s u v i ca mt s u t u
 Vit Nam 4
: 







 14
2.2. 







u 17
2.2.1. u khu vc RCCI 17
2.2.2. Ch s biu CCI 22
:



 S
BIU 27
3.1. Biu d s RCCI  27
nh khung th th cho hai ch s . 27
i v 8 ch th hp phn ca ch s RCCI . 30
n ca RCCI theo nhi 30
n c 37
 s  s RCCI 44
3.1.3. Biu d s CCI 50
 th trong nhi  50
 th  52


1 i quy tuy thi k 1961-
-i vi mt s trN3 32
Bng 3.3. 

1 c



i
k 1961-i k 1979-i vi mt s tr 38
Bt 8 bin biu th m bii ca nhi  45
Bng 3.5. ng theo mi ca 4 bin ch th nhi 
ng ha lu 45
Bng 3.6. Tng hp kt qu  s RCCI u 47
Bng 3.7. M bii ca nhiu 49
Bng 3.8. Mi quan h gia 8 ch s n biu th m bii
ca nhi a ch s RCCI 56
Bng 3.9. T l a 8 ch s n ch s RCCI 57
Bng 3.10. H s a ch s n cn biu th
m bii ca nhi ) 59
Bng 3.11. T l a 9 ch s n ch s CCI 59
Bng 3.12. S ch nhi 
vi thi k 1961-1990 62
Bng 3.13. S ch 
i thi k 1961-1990 66
Bng 3.14. T l  s n CCI trong  69
Bng P.1a. 8 bin m bii ca nhi s bii
n "()" ca ch s ng hp thp k 77
Bng P.1b. 8 bin m bii ca nhi s bii


 17
3.1. 

1 ci quy tuy thi k 1961-2000
thi k 1979-i vi mt s trN3 32
ch nhi T
0
C) gia thp k 1991-p
k 1961-1970 33
ch nhi T
0
C) gia thn 1981-i
n 1961-1980 34
 lch chun ca nhi trong thn 1961-1980 35
 lch chun ca nhi trong thn 1981-2000 35
3.4a. Mc i bing c



(
T
ng h



36
3.4b. Mc i  bing ca nhi (
T
ng hp 2 thp k . 37


thn 1981-2000 42
3.8a. Mc i bing c
%
P

ng hp thp k 43
3.8b. Mc i bing c
%
P

) ng hp 2 thp k 44
 s bim 48
 s biu 49
3.11a. 

a thn 1981-2000 so vi nhi ti 
95
th
ca thn tham chiu 1961-1980 51
 3.11b. 

a thn 1981-2000 so vi nhi 


u ti  95
th
ca thn tham chiu 1961-1980 51
3.12a. nht ca thn 1981-2000 so vi i 
5

th
ca thn tham chiu 1961-1980 54
3.14a. a thn 1981-2000 dthn
tham chiu 1961-1980 55
3.14b. 







ca thn 1981-2000 c
dthn tham chiu 1961-1980 55
15. Mi quan h gia ch s  59
 s I
hot
ch nhi (d,e,f) thi k -
2100 so vi thi k tham chiu 1961-1990 63
 s I
dry
(a, b, c); ch s I
wet
i
k 2071-2100 so vi thi k 1961-1990 68
 s CCI trou 70
 s CCI thi k 2041-2070 (a), thi k 2071-
d thi k tham chiu 1961-1990 70
IPCC
 v biu (Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change)
PRECIS
u khu vc cc
Anh (Providing Climate Information for Impact Study)
HDI
Ch s i (Human Development Index)
RCCI
Ch s biu khu vc (Regional Climate Change Index)
CCI
Ch s biu (Climate change index)
SED
   nh k
(Standard Euclidean Distance)
SCD
P       n   ng
dng (Squared cord distance dissimilarity coefficient)
NDJFMA




11 4
MAJJASO









               
 
         
  

.

30, 
  

 (IPCC khi tha nhn v
nhng biu hin ca bikhoa hlp 
cng nhn thy cn  nhng ng v  
chic i nhng bt li, ng thi
i. Nhng cuc phng vi biu cc tham gia Hi
ngh Bip qui Montreal cho thy ct
p v t trong nhc ch s v bin
u. Mt trong nhng ch s bic thit lp
d: 1) Ch s  u  Hoa K (Climate Extremes Index-CEI) do
   cng s [26  xut  2) Ch s phn     
(Greenhouse Climate Response Index) ca Hoa K do Karl [26] ng s 
xun t kt qu  u ca
IPCC (1990; 1992; 1995) [24]. B  s n bii
uc bich s ri ro biu (Climate change risk indices)
croft ng (www.maplecroft.com)  rng m
k  ng m bii cu.






"






:
g 1: 


C







  nhng biu hin c ng phng
v t Nam; tng quan v nh
 s . T kt qu tng quan s nh
mi u ca lu.
: 

s 


3
: 


1.1. Bng chng biu ph biu 
u
i gian
gng t ng ci  
i mc cao nht trong nhn 
lich, sn xui s dt.
S i nhng biu hin ca s 
 n rng c
bic cho thy:
Nhi  bi cc bc. Nhit
      u  0,74 trong 100  (1906-2005), 
0,13i thp k tro  g(1956-2005). Nhi 
 Bc Cn gp  u.
t lin Nhi i
  nhky r
ching nhic nht  thu.
Xu th lng  thi k 1901-2005  nhiu khu vc ln u cho
thy: L  a Bc  Nam M, B, 
Bc v  trong khi  gim  Sahel, a Trung Hi, am
C  Nam C. Mt s hing thi tit c i v
tn s c  trong 50 : Nh lnh,  l 
      hu ht dica t lin, trong khi
nhng t n  , tn s c kin 
l u ht  khu vc, [25].
 phu ng lai (th k 21)  gii

C, 1,8
0

0
Ci th k (2090-2099), SAT s  1,8
0
C,
2,7
0
C  3,1
0
C. L nhiph bin  khu vc nhii (khu vc b
 khng ch  c bit ), gim  n nhii
    cao. ng b    u c
phng s .
1.2. Mt s u v , bii ca mt s u t 
hu n  phu  Vit Nam
 Vit Nam, biu nhiu t nh
 u v c Nguyn
c Ng, Nguyn Trng Hiu, Trn Thc, Nguyng,

5
Nguyn, Tr, Nguyn Hu
Ninh, Trn Vit Lin, Trn Hng, Nguyn
Th Hin Thun, Trc, n, , Nguy
Vit  ng u
nhibii v nhic bing ng
 bi   u. Nh  ng c        n 
ng n bn vng ca kinh t c bit
u.

6
 ph  k 21, cu  Vi
 ng phn mm t h  ch b     
MAGICC/SCENGEN (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced
Climate Change/ Regional Climate SCENario GENerator) t
 ng kch b k 21. Ckt qu ng
kch bn c B T  [1] 
Theo kch b (B2)i th k 21, nhi 
 
0
C  c, 2,5
0
C  c, 2,4
0
C  ng Bng Bc B,
2,8
0
C  Bc Trung B, 1,9
0
C  Nam Trung B, 1,6
0
C  
0
C 
Nam B so vi k 1980 - ch bng
  7-8%  ng bng Bc B, Bc
Trung B  2-3%  Nam Trung B  so vi thi k
1980-1999. L tt c u c
ng gim. Mc bi 
ng 28-33 cm a th k 21 65-100 cm n cui th k 21 so vi


(IPCC).
 Giorgi (2006) [22] vi   

 
ttrong th k 21 cho 
       

 c (Region Climate
Change Index, RCCI) 
 . 
 
 
P%), 

T
%,), 
 (
P
%).
26  ca 20
 GCM  

 







 u cho thy:   i mnh m nht  c Trung Quc 
,  c Trung Quc c th hin a th k 21  ni bt
nht i th k . Trong 5 tic kh, nh m nht
khi theo kch bn A1B  A2,  ng c
Trung Quc ch xut hin theo kch bn B1.

9
 Diffenbaugh Noah S. ng s (2008) [18]u
 n nh 
s dng  : nh k
e, SED) 
  ng   ng dng (Squared cord distance dissimilarity
coefficient, SCD). khng Nam Hoa
  
 Timothy C, Bonebrakea (2009) [31] vi nhng m
 s dng  s RCCI ca Giorgi c ci ti
  i  ch s bi   u tin trin khu vc (Evolutionary Regional
Climate Change Index, ERCCI). Kt qu u cho thy   mnh
m  ng nht theo ;  mt s nhit i  
s mnh m  c  i.
Baettig M.B  ng s (2007) [15], [16] 








Climate change index, CCI). C

.
Mmt s    t qu u v
bii mnh m ca nhi  nhii 
u s . Ch s 
i bt bii ca  a nhi .
Scherrer S.C and Baettig M.B 
 dng  th  ch s CCI cho
c t li nhng bin
i ca nhi  trong th k  t li [29].

10
Nhng ng ci vng sinh h
 ,   ca
vc cn c bo tn.   Hoa K 
thc hin D c t i
bt nht, s b hng chu nhiu nhy cm nht vng c
u nhch bo tnh San Fransisco.
 thc hin nhim v  ng s  s
bi   u (Climate Change Index, CCI) bng m   
 dng 5 ch th u, bao gm:  
m nht; 2)  t; 3) Nhi ti cao
 ti th nhi 
D L s n xut thi tic ra
quy   ng vi bi   u  Trung M    
Diminica" do Vthc hii s 
c    n quc t Hoa K (United States Agency for International
Developmentng tia
 n  ng sinh hc  Belize, Costa Rica, Cng   
Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panamac bii bt
c quan trng cc bo tn. Trong d khc nghit ca

quc gia (trong s 189 quc k d b ti bii
c b ng t; 2) khong 1 phn
n ng mnh m c
               
Diffenbaugh Noah S  (2007) [19]
[28] CCI do

-   
"" (Socioclimatic exposure) do
:
(Socioclimatic exposure = CCI * (population index + wealth index + poverty
index), "H

12
. B CCI, 
.

ua  

1)    bi i c  u t  u   , c  
ng s d  
din bin, xu th  bii cu t u theo th
 bii cu t c biu hi
la hai thi k ln su th hin
nhng ph(climate change projection) ng
s dng mc ch cu t u gia thi k so vi
thi k chuu, i k tham chiu - thi k nn;
2) Mca ch s ch ra nh
H s ni bt nht. Ch s   
th k 21) t  ch th  mt ch s  cung cp


14











c hin vi s 

1) c (B1);
2) c (B2);
3) ng bng Bc B (B3);
4) u Trung Trung B (B4);
5) u Nam Trung B (N1);
6)  (N2);
7) u Nam B (N3).
B s lic k tha t ai s 
c kim tra [12], trngc s dng trong
lu bng 2.1.
2.1.2. 























 



  ,
V







 30km, 





 






103.09
22.03
244
5

104.300
21.05
59
3



103.25
21.35
570
6
M
104.683
20.83
958
(B2)
1

104.967
22.817
117.0
6

Quang
105.217

5
L
106.767
21.833
258 (B3)
1





105.25
21.18
17
6

106.03
20.4
4
2


106.633
20.50
112 (B4)
1

105.783
19.750
5
4

106.017
17.883
27
2
Vinh
105.683
18.667
5
5
ng Hi
106.600
17.483
6
3

(N2)
1
Playcu
108.017
13.967
779
3
t
108.450
11.950
1509
2
B.Ma Thut
108.050
12.667
490
4

(N3)
1

105.08
10.46
3
4

105.58




    cho  


 25km,  
  . 
   c 

 HadCM3 (Gordon et al,
2000)  . 



 , 






 

  



.


 [9]
Mi     c la chn   ng u  Vit Nam
trong khong  t 93-120
0
 t 4-36
0
Nc i 140x160 i.












 : 



, c nhi
i thp t ng tt chu k 
th bii. i vn b s liu ca 
tt     m la chn.         
 s dng trong vich bt cho
a)
b)

 theo   
 .  
nhi  ),  
do  
 

18
   

1)  

2)           
  chia
 .
Ch s ng dch th u (8 bin) biu th s
nhau cbing  hai thi k 
ca nhit  m 4 ch th biu th m bi
li k ch th biu th m bing t
  d  lch chu s bin
ng hai thi k . Ch s RCCI  

1) h s biu khu vc RCCI ca Giorgi
P s RCCI do Giorgi (2006) [22 xut cho bc
 i hu ch ra c  mnh m nht. Ch s  c
nh d  ln ca      bi ng 
nhi  gia hai thi k.
 
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
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