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Nr39hEIELT&9(123.456$78819:;<$=>;,?@$2+
9CD8EFGHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIEU
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
CHƯƠNG 1: TỔNG QUAN NGHIÊN CỨU ĐỀ TÀI
1.1. Tính cấp thiết nghiên cứu đề tài
(8š'(><$j;,1J"g./'&01(239W.J56$78
=>'(><$"/.;mz3>,IT&>,AaC,z36$+,-./'&01('(>

;<$=>;,?@$2+,(pD829+?
'•0C,C/(ž
%* 56p+,W/(,19!,J23.456$78819:;
<$ž./p+,W9ii,19!q,r,C/(,J23.456
$78819:;<$ž
%7 56Mx'q18;_/(9rJ"g./'&01(23.456$78
819:;<$ž
%7856p6$1$/(˜897?8,__,A3,q56$78
819:;<$=>;,?,(,>,Jž
1.3. Các nghiên cứu liên quan đến phân tích và dự báo cầu
(z31,_A`3j,_8r3./,&<94,/,169f,C$#.J
8!,5W94,/=>1,16L
%4,/t*+,-./'&01(.42356$78,3W"1>,>0>,A,B,
84Nl=>;,?,8,3W"19CD8EFGHŸ=>,163?•B
+8–EFGF—./94,/t*+,-./'&01(23.456$785J"D,=>
;,?*5M$[,[<,>8,A,B,84Nl9CD8EFGHu=>,16
*83d–EFFX—I6>94,//?9f9z315+3./,C,./($2"w,3?C,
3L1<823j"3#,23jJ"g./'&01(23j],(a$2!'3
$+,-./'&01(23,_">$+,-œ9g1?C3,W6•,J23
=>56$78Ii43!'39g9>>,($2"w,3?C,">
9g1$'q9r$+,-,($2,&,56^3d,a'(>=>'(>
<$I
%4,/t*+,-23./8!,5W6$1$,)97?,A3,q56$785,
;,?@$2f5;†%">[>,A,B,/!9CD8EFGHu
=>,16šB>–EFGF—I(94,//?,169fA3a1,W,$2"w,3?C,
./$2$+,-23.456$785=>;,?@$2f5;†%
">[>,3?A,($216$1$9r,)97?,A3,q56$785,
;,?,_,16.K>9>>9g16$1$q,r9W.J;,?j16
$1$8/,169>>943d,33I
%4,/t*+,-./'&01(23.4•g3.>5=>;,?8

* Phạm vi nghiên cứu:
%4a;>L4,/,#$,3A`3$+,-./'&01(2356$78
819:;<$,A9B>0//!I
%4,>Lcz3wD8EFFY9Cz3wD8EFGF./,C/$+,-j
J"g./'&01(23.456$78819:;<$–819:;<$
0˜,b$5,™9<"(G0i^GjE8—=>;,?,JD8EFGHI
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 Q Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
1.6. Phương pháp nghiên cứu.
4,/5x'q$$1$,@g$./$+,-aC,g$.J$$1$
,WaAj$$1$'&01(j$$1$A`3,B,9ra1z31,,_
_jA`3./'&01(23,;,?@$2+I
1.7. Nguồn gốc số liệu nghiên cứu.
%985:;6*oC,(1./$o'(>=>;,?@$2
+I
<985=;LcQF$C3943,>,l<8,>8a6(waCa1/
,A9B>0//!I
1.8. Kết cấu của chuyên đề nghiên cứu.
C,d33?A94h8QL
GL@z3>A`394,/
EL*+,-./'&01(23.456$78819:;<$=>
;,?@$2+,A9B>0//!9CD8EFGHI
QL!,5W6$1$,)97?,A3,q56$78819:;<$
,;,?@$2+9CD8EFGHI
1.9. Lý luận chung về cầu, ước lượng và dự báo cầu.
1.9.1. Lý luận chung về cầu
1.9.1.1. Khái niệm về cầu và luật cầu
[(;_>(–EFFQ—,_23"/5W"g/(1>?'B.q8/
83>ia6D./5¢5/83>•18`1a1>3,(8!,,>d,
9B–.J1?C3,Wa1a;9@—I

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^3d,a'(>=>;,?I
1.9.3.2. Các phương pháp dự báo cầu
iH$$1$'&01(239i"/L
%T&01(23'&>./("g,D68,3?<,9W,30_
%T&01(23,[(,W9!,D0_z3+
%T&01(23'&>./($,_/8^3,C
%T&01(23,[(8;_J"g/8hz3?8K3
%T&01(23,;z3>"d?waC0>"f9(9,JjwaC/$+
$W0!$#j01/jwaC,A3'mj'&>./(waC13?A>/
4,/^95+3./($+,-$$1$'&01(23'&>./($,_
/8^3,CI&d,=>$$1$/?"/^19B/8hz3?=>23,[(,
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65x'q$2848Z.[«59rJ"gI
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GG Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
CHƯƠNG 2: PHÂN TÍCH VÀ DỰ BÁO CẦU VỀ SẢN PHẨM MÁNG ĐÈN
CÔNG NGHIỆP CỦA CÔNG TY CỔ PHẦN TÂN MINH ANH TRÊN ĐỊA BÀN
HÀ NỘI ĐẾN NĂM 2015
2.1. Lựa chọn phương pháp phân tích dự báo.
2.1.1. Phương pháp thu thập số liệu
%O#$$C3943,>23,B,,3,#$5W"<35d$
r$q.q($+,-23.456$78819:;<$=>;,?
@$2+j94,/,C/,/"#$$C3943,>,>8a6(waC
a1/.456$78=>;,?9r,3,#$5W"<35d$I169f$1,>./
,3.4QF$C3943,>j9W,g943,>"/,A3'm,A9B>0//!I
N6+3v=>$C3943,>9g,C,aC51,.J!'3A`3j'p"<32
,3,#$0>(h8L,3#$,30_/,1j1+3v911.4d,"gj
8K38fj16=>56$78I
%3,#$5W"<3,`d$L4,/,C/,3,#$5W"<3.4,__(,
9!a'(>=>;,?@$2+>9(,cz3wD8EFFY9C
C,z3wD8EFGF,c$oaC,(1./$oa'(>=>;,?¡,;z3>
8,[[,9r,3,#$,A8.41=>8s,/0@53–Ni9:3ez3>—j
,3#$=>,A3'mj'+5W•,/$W/!$q.q(z31,_'&01(
23./J"g23I
2.1.2. Phương pháp phân tích dữ liệu
4,/5x'qaC,g$9h,1$$1$$$1$$+,-
z3?$j$$1$'•'Bj$$1$hz3?,;z3>8;_a,C
"g9r9>>8!,5WaC,"3#.45&6•=>1?C3,W9C23.456$78¡
5x'q$$1$<z369r$+,-8Wz3><p>,19!=>,A3
'm9W.J16/(1jd,"g56$78j8K38f/(1j].J'(>5W

©=9<;<$
©19:;<$
©19:,1z3>+8,2–©@—>D(^
©19:,1z3>+8,2–©@—>;8$6z3>
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©!$9<
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Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
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9<'+'qj,=,C,0Bj]
2.2.1.3. Nhiệm vụ, quyền hạn của Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh.
%+?'&./,@`0!81?(,9!56^3d,a'(>=>;,?,[(
z3?9B=>"3#,$1$I
%&<92?9=1>8aC,,(g$9h83>01j#>;.J
a1/j"A'(>g$,1.J1,@`a,CI
%k36"wj5x'q3h.Wa'(>=>;,?,[(9)z3?9Bj968
06(<3z36a,C./$1,,r.Wj,&,>,6.4,/-I
%0(11(,9!,/-=>'(><$I
%k36"w9!£10!;+.Aj96806(z3?4"gg$$1$(
">(9!I
2.2.1.4. Tổ chức bộ máy, nhân sự của Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh.
d3,@`=>;,?@$2+9g^+?'&,[(8;
_,&,3?C`Dj9`923"/189W;,?,&,C$943/,(/0!
(,9!=>;,?IC$9C"/E$i189W./1$o0>,(;,?0>(
h8L*o,/-%aC,(1¡$o,@`‘/-¡$oa'(>¡^•
56^3d,¡$oar8,>d,"g¡$oa(.#I
Hình 2.1: Sơ đồ cơ cấu tổ chức bộ máy Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GP Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
1$i

2010
(Nguồn: Phòng Kế toán và phòng Kinh doanh của công ty CP Tân Minh Anh )
c9h,B,>,d?˜'(>5W,A3,q56$78819:;<$–"(
0˜,b$5,™9<G0i^GjE8—=>;,?@$2+,D"A
,qz3>1z3w,(D8,cD8EFFY9CD8EFGFIq,rj,@'(>5W,A3,q
56$78819:;<$D8EFFY"/EYSEjXHH_C9CD8EFFX,_
;,?,A3,q9gQHXHjUYX_C,DEHjGU§5(.JD8EFFYID8EFGF
"/PQGSjYYG_C,DEFjFY§5(.JD8EFFXI
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GH Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
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"g97?8,A3,q56$78=>;,?d,9g(,I;,?"3;z3>
,+8D85i1a1/£./£a;c,_8aC8,A8a1/./
p0/8J,A,B,IT(9ij5W"g/(1,A3,q=>;,?
,D"Aa;cz3>1z3w,(D8,cD8EFFY9CD8EFGFIMW"g
9"w./a1//?/43'(p39r8=>56$78£1
C"gz361(j-511$mg$91$`9g323./,BC3=>
,A3'mI
2.2.3. Các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến tình hình tiêu thụ sản phẩm của công ty.
-16=>56$78I
Nd,ae8!,'(><$/(56^3d,>56$78£8(83W56$78
01>.J8!,8`1/(9i9[8""g3#('(><$INA9ij1
66•,JE+,W-9i"/aW"g/(101>./"g3#=>
;,?I1601>/>(,_"g3#,39g,A8!,9.B56$78,D
"AaW"g01>"689./g"I
J,__a,C430C9!j,>//?/>?l,
;,?9f9s,>8q,A39B19r"/8=9g,_,C,>9r9>>8`
1$mg$d,(a1/8/a;6•z3143,J'(>,3./"g
3#(;,?I;,?9f"&>$$1$9B1'&>,A5•$-j
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$78819:;<$=>;,?,A9B>0//!5>3L(5WQF
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;<$./GFF§a1/9gv9f5x'q56$78819:;
<$=>;,?I+?"/8!,aC,z36d,918c=>;,?j,3?8J,/"#$
,cD8EFFH56$78819:;<$=>;,?9f9gd,43
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2.3.1. Nhân tố quyết định đến tiêu thụ sản phẩm.
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d,"g56$78,9g,A3'm(,d,9rl0i.J56
$78I(/>1./8K38f£"/p?C3,Wz3?C,9B9Ca6D
,>=>56$78,A,B,I
Bảng 2.1: Kết quả phân tích phiếu điều tra lựa chọn của người tiêu dùng
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GS Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
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