MINISTRY OF EDUCATION
AND TRAINING
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE
AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

VIETNAM ACADEMY FOR WATER RESOURCES HA HAI DUONG CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ON
AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION. PILOT APPLICATION FOR
SOME PROVINCES IN THE RED RIVER DELTA SUMMARY OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY THESIS Specialization: Water Resources Engineering
Code : 62 58 02 12

HANOI, 2014


PREFACE
I. Research purposes
Develop a method to assess the vulnerability caused by
climate change on rice production;
Assess the vulnerability caused by climate change on rice
production in Nam Dinh, Hai Phong, Ha Nam and Hai Duong
provinces.
II. The scientific significance of the thesis
In term of academy, the climate change vulnerability
assessment method has been supplemented and completed, especially
focus much on community level;
Provide a set of indicator for assessing vulnerability to
climate change on agriculture production;
Provide a process to calculate sub-indices and main indices
of climate change vulnerability index;
Provide a basic methodology to develop the support software
that to be recommended to apply for other relevant research.
III. The practical significance of the thesis
Establish a method and tool supporting for assessment and
determination of the most vulnerable province and applied
practically for 04 provinces as Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Hai Phong and
Hai Duong;
Pilot application for 04 provinces as Ha Nam, Nam Dinh,
Hai Phong and Hai Duong to determine which province is the most
vulnerable to climate change.
IV. The new points of the thesis
Establish a method with the unified process to assess the
vulnerability to climate change on agriculture production;
Establish the sub-indicators and main indicators of

(NAPA), 5-steps method of America International and Cooperation
Agency and Vietnam institutes and organizations such as Vietnam
Red Cross, Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network, and
Institute for Water and Environment…
1.3. General approach
The combination of above two approaches is called general
approach and this has been applied in the Australian government
program for climate-risk assessment and adaptation plan in
Mandurah, A Guide to Community Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessment and Action of Canadian International Agency,
vulnerability assessment method based on MASSCOTE (FAO) and
framework of Stockholm Environment Institute and Indian
Technology Institute.

3

CHAPTER II. DEVELOPMENT OF METHOD AND
PROCESSES FOR ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY TO
CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER DEMAND FOR CROP

2.1. Development of method for assessing the vulnerability to
climate change on water demand for crop
2.1.1. Selection of vulnerability concept
In term of concept, the thesis selected vulnerability concept
of IPCC (2001) to develop method and vulnerability assessment
processes. Therefore, according to this concept, vulnerability shall be
expressed by the function of Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S) and
Adaptation Capacity (AC).
V = f(E, S, AC)
2.1.2. Approach for method development

before conducting field assessment.
2.2.2. Step 2: Field assessment
- Preparation for field assessment including the activities such
as: (i) Development of field assessment proposal, (ii) Selection of
climate change and sea level rise scenarios; (iii) Identifying
assessment scope; (iv) Preparation of tables and questionnaires for
5

data collection; and (v) Preparation of tools for assessment and data
collection at community level.
Processes for assessment at community level: Include following
activities:
Activity 1: Work with locality (province, district and commune);
Activity 2: Establish partners group and to train them;
Activity 3: Document and data collection; and
Activity 4: Discuss with partner groups and local people.
2.2.3. Step 3: Identifying vulnerability elements
The content of step 3 is to collect data for calculating
Exposure (E), Sensitivity (S) and Adaptive Capacity (AC) which will
be used for constructing vulnerability index in step 4. The result of
step 3 is collected data tables of sub-variables of exposure,
sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
2.2.4. Step 4: Constructing vulnerability index
- Calculating vulnerability index;
- Developing vulnerability maps and charts.
2.2.5. Step 5: Assessing vulnerability to climate change
The content of this step is to determine which
province/district is the most vulnerability to climate change on water
demand for crop and then proposing adaptive measures.
2.3. Scientific research and algorithm applied to build

nn
, and AC
11
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, AC
n1
÷ AC
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2.3.2.2. Identifying the weight of indices
After normalizing collected data, it is necessary to identify
the weight for each sub-index. In the scope of the thesis, the weights
were identified by unequal weight method basing on the quantity of
sub-variables.
2.3.2.3. Calculating sub-variable indices
As mentioned above, each main-variable could comprise of
different sub-variables and each sub-variable could comprise of

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7 2.3.3. Process to identify and calculate vulnerability index
According to contents and the equations mentioned above,
the process to identify and calculate climate vulnerability index as
well as the indices of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity is as
followings:

Figure 2.4: Process to calculate climate vulnerability index
8

2.3.4. Identifying Exposure index (E)
Exposure index consists of 3 sub-indices as (i) Climate extreme event (E
1
); (ii) Change in climatic
variables (E
2
); and (iii) Sea level rise (E
3
). Each sub-index is expressed by the indicators as following:

Sub-
component
Indicator

(E
2
)
Average of yearly maximum rainfall (E
21
)
mm
Statistic
CC Scenarios
Average of yearly minimum rainfall (E
22
)
mm
Statistic
CC Scenarios
Average of yearly maximum temperature (E
23
)
T
o

Statistic
CC Scenarios
Average of yearly minimum temperature (E
24
)
T
o

Statistic

); and (iv) Affected by climate extreme events (S
4
). Each sub-index is expressed by the
indicators as following:

Sub-component
Indicator
Unit
Source
Present
2030
Land use (S
1
)
Land use for crop (S
11
)
ha
Statistic
LUP
Irrigated land use for crop (S
12
)
ha
Statistic
IDP
Water sources
(S
2
)

%
Statistic
SDP
Total of poverty households (S
32
)
Houshold
Statistic
SDP
Total income from crop production (S
33
)
VND
Statistic
SDP
Affected by
climate extreme
events (S
4
)
Total land for crop affected by storm (S
41
)
ha
Statistic
Assume
Total land for crop affected by drought (S
42
)
ha

Source
Present
2030
Infrastruct
ure (AC
1
)
Rate of concreted irrigation system (AC
11
)
%
Statistic
IDP
Rate of concreted rural road system (AC
12
)
%
Statistic
SDP
Rate of concreted on-farm road system (AC
13
)
%
Statistic
SDP
Rate of mechanization in agriculture production (AC
14
)
%
Statistic


Statistic
SDP
Human Development Index (AC
32
)

Statistic
SDP
Remark: LUP: Land Use Plan; IDP: Irrigation Development Plan; SDP: Socioeconomic
Development Plan.
11

2.4. Development of vulnerability assessment support
software
2.4.1. Basic functions of the software:
Data base: Include all information, data, basic maps for
calculating vulnerability index and developing vulnerability maps
and charts.
Calculation function: to calculate the indices of exposure
(E), sensitivity (S), adaptive capacity (AC) and climate vulnerability
index (CVI).
Result display function: to display the table of indices, and
relevant vulnerability maps and charts.
2.4.2. Block diagram of CVASS software

Figure 2.5: Block diagram of CVASS software
12

CHAPTER III. THE RESULTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Milestone
Present
Rank
2030
Rank
Nam Dinh
0.322
3
0.384
4
Hai Phong
0.626
1
0.697
1
Ha Nam
0.493
2
0.493
2
Hai Duong
0.256
4
0.399
3
Remark: (Rank 1

4: High

Low)

Hai Duong
0.477
2
0.578
2
Remark: (Rank 1

4: High

Low)
Figure 3.2: Sensitivity map at provincial level

15

3.2.3. Index and map of adaptive capacity (AC) at provincial level

Table 3.3: Adaptive Capacity index at provincial level

Province
Milestone
Present
Rank
2030
Rank
Nam Dinh
0.556
2
0.659
1
Hai Phong

Rank
2030
Rank
Nam Dinh
0.555
1
0.517
1
Hai Phong
0.516
2
0.554
2
Ha Nam
0.411
3
0.424
4
Hai Duong
0.377
4
0.466
3
Remark: (Rank 1

4: High

Low)
Figure 3.4: Climate Vulnerability map at provincial level


0,627
4
0,483
2
Giao Xuan
0,322
3
0,616
2
0,635
3
0,435
3
Tien Tien
0,256
4
0,604
3
0,697
1
0,388
5
Phuong Hoang
0,256
4
0,583
4
0,684
2
0,385

1
Giao Lac
0,384
4
0,687
1
0,574
2
0,499
3
Giao Xuan
0,384
4
0,560
4
0,506
3
0,479
5
Tien Tien
0,399
3
0,633
2
0,584
1
0,483
4
Phuong Hoang
0,399


CONCLUSION AND RECOMMEND FOR FURTHER STUDY

I. Conclusion
According to scientific basic and the results of literature
review on the methods and frameworks for assessing vulnerability to
climate change in Vietnam and over the world, the thesis had
developed a method for assessing vulnerability to climate change
on water demand for crop.
In order to support to vulnerability assessment, a tool
(Climate Vulnerability Assessment Support Software - CVASS) has
been also developed. Besides, the set of 30 indicators of exposure,
sensitivity and adaptive capacity had proposed for calculating
climate vulnerability index.
Depending on scale and scope of pilot assessment, some
typical indicators had calculated by supplementary tool and
mathematic model before using CVASS software.
Based on equations (1), (2), (3) and (4) with the set of
indicators mentioned above, use CVASS software to calculate the
indices of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and climate
vulnerability index. With these indices, the development of
vulnerability map and chart has simplified by using CVASS software
in order to provide the results with more visual for vulnerability
assessment.
21

II. Recommends for further study

measures to upgrade irrigation system for new rural development
in coastal areas in the Red river delta. Journal of Water
Resources Science and Technology No 18. (9/2013), p.79.
2. Ha Hai Duong et al. Qualitative assessment of vulnerability to
climate changes. Journal of Water Resources Science and
Technology No 7. (3/2012), p.18.
3. Ha Hai Duong, Nguyen Quang An, Dinh Thuy Linh, 2012,
“Part 5: Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources,
Irrigation and Drainage.” Climate Change Impacts on
Agricultural sectors and Adaptation Measures, Agriculture
Publication, Hanoi, 42 pp.
4. Ha Hai Duong et al. Climate change impacts on water resources
systems in Vietnam; Adaptive policies and measures to respond
to these impacts. Journal of Agricultural and Rural Development
– Special topic on Climate Change and Adaptive Measures
(4/2011).
5. Ha Hai Duong. Literature review on the methodology to assess
the vulnerabilities caused by climate change. Journal of Water
Resources Science and Technology No 22. (7/2009), p.101.
6. Ha Hai Duong et al. Climate Change and Adaptive Capacity in
Quy Nhon City, Binh Dinh province. Journal of Water
Resources Science and Technology No 23. (7/2009), p.46.