Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO
TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ TP.HCM

BÀI NGHIÊN CỨU
CHÂU Á ĐƯƠNG ĐẦU VỚI
BỘ BA BẤT KHẢ THI
GVHD : 
Lớp : 
Nhóm thực hiện : 
- !"#$
- %&$%"#
- '($)*"
TP.HCM, năm 2013
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [1]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
MỤC LỤC
TÓM TẮT 1
I. GIỚI THIỆU 1
II. TỔNG QUAN CÁC KẾT QUẢ NGHIÊN CỨU TRƯỚC ĐÂY 2
2.1. Lý thuyết bộ ba bất khả thi 2
2.1.1. +,-+./00120/3
2.1.2. 45676685953:;6/'5+./00<+'=20/3>
2.1.3. ?3@5'35'0ABC:676685953D
2.2. Đo lường các chỉ số bộ ba bất khả thi của nhóm tác giả Aizemman, Chinn và Ito
(2008) 8
2.2.1. Thước đo của bộ ba bất khả thi 8
2.2.1.1. 
2.2.1.2.  !"#$%!#$&'
2.2.1.3. ()*+, !/&'
2.2.2. Tương quan tuyến tính giữa các chỉ số bộ ba bất khả thi 12

``G>6'3./a\;
M S3X/NYN+3N.)R5GGDS==/==35/\/'3O0602330
S'35/5'/a+/='35/'30/b=U3'53=</'3/\;/30
;/V'5McKK6'3./a\;
c S3X/NY.RGGMZ5/5[[U//.696/5[//U330.5'./
V//==\;/30;/V'5GM`>6'3./a\;
> 55'N;NR%539N.SGGD\'0['3=U3U0533R.3
\3.%03530_//90NVV>1> 
 3N +. )R5 GGDS /[/='/ U U330 V//== Y'0 U
V'53</%03S0=3=a;/=/'.%'53/NG]K^aKG`1K
D W''3N  \N  S  +//'3'9/0N  .  W  56'6'  GG`  W/=53  U330
./</0V/53//'3/3/=a\<3.//.3V0353=\'V//5'09
/30;/V'5G
` 2'9/0NY.Y_/3GG S==/==33b=\d/;5/;/3//30
;/V'5N\;_'93%V/'KGG6'3./a\;
GL/N%;.O++30/=32/''/553GG //d5/'0[/05U53='9RRa
;/<3=/../d5/././=535/=UU'/3==/5=.03630353/=N` GGGMY'0U
R5/'530\3=N K]^aK1cG
%539N R  GG  R.3b=  ''/  '/3/ . 35=  =/F//=  \3  .
%03530_//90
%539NRNS/V5N.SGG`'./3=3<33aS/0U'./
U5V3505V//==/30;/V'5N530R=5355/U%60323/
.%031W/V'5/5U\3SUU3'=N+33=5'U23/;/=/'%''
K%539NRN.S]U'53^_R.39/.[/L/6'9/
R.3%032'N>
Me/30/3=  SN  S  N  R  %539  ]U'53^  /=53N  +35'3N  .  W53
5'5'0  /=  3  \d/  ;5/  ;/3/=  V5530  553=53=  f  W5
S0=3=
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [4]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi

?3h93j?@5A3j5A.539<N5p3B03&5<x5B?7:
l?4P=B53h5j5,F0}3=855A&5'5A54
B3n58'•Nw.kB"rS=3?}5'3FBB?7:73
nV53PN"x&45'@<<€|5s5&3zxF
33N5'5A54N<r3=A35•E?7VE5&V:j553P
5-x?3h9,5@•B"r73nV53P=
#
B"rH:45/?o3C53P=B5p3B9v03&5
+w.k9@5q=•GGGN=A03&5:5p3B3?B3:B"rH5•
"E5•<€58V#E53‚:543r3nPN5p3B3?B3
:)?"u?B3B5P03&59B"<€"?"ud/05p
3B5o3
1
3<r3B?s53h9B5-?s\'5p3B3?B303&5<A?s53h
t5A3j5A.53P<5/?o3C53?70nV53h5j5'9<At
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [5]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
P=BV9*93540755'x340"uBF0g
53h5j"r?4?@•?&5?"uC53o?$0&VB5<3B5'$=0"u?(
'B35nV5'<C53:Bh935493V3?3w5<r3I=A
?B?o3Jd'5'676685953)3jN5'5A54N(45B"rH
?h5/?o3C5373nV53P<P=B5p3B9v03&5ƒv55'
V&<3B.|<05n9*N&5?793.53h5j:B
'"#=„@?o3B.|<5n9*5P=B5n9*
9354'<{70G5'"QuV5l<$:3j5"uN58
5'V&<33r3&5A.539<3xBF35'5A54<j
553P5"#?349v:3F33Nl5n58
'•NzG"r5-P=B53h5j("05n9*
B3'•N5'5A54N<3jz…539<FB5'93
E?703&5:5p3B"0Bh93545'V3?3w5<r3

Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
!r3ƒ
G
05o3B5'$d859‚N‡05o3B5'$nV9‚"<nNd859‚
9,VC57<E=0"u]5nV^F3‡"nV9‚075
:‡$5'"Q6•935o(]‡.^6•5o]‡^
B55B:75h93546s35V(:4053
9<}03<539<N?"u.355,FV"#5'-=a
BP = NX + KA
Wƒ345p5'0r5'539<}03ƒ?"ud/"053
9<}03<S0539<]6•53=5'"r?"u=zx6z3,
."r35'q?353="r3?"u=ˆx6z3,.5'"r^
O3=…@<0N5539<075:
0j3x0}3=855'"r<0}3=85"r3NC5@0a
KA = k(r – r*)
40}3=855'"r5•5"#?3=<r30}3=85"r35-0u3n
?(5"5'"r#0u30n?(5"'"r3N,.5'"r<"r
3d"r5•53=5'"r<353="r3N<
9"r?o<5'"r375B9BN40}3=855'"r]'^#
0}3=85"r3]'‰^5-539<=„5w."<"u0&3B9C:
75B55B5@=A5C5w5w.""B55B
5o5@V30,0,6•


075?VF5':,-+./0020/393?"45
"r3<V5P5',-RL+5,F<3j6o=?"QB
)3jF:P=B539<P=B53h5j."r34?75p3B?$
+./00<20/3?}35P3jF:P=B539<P
=B53h5j."r34?75p3B?$5,F,-RL+%
"QR05nVuVBV3uV9B3x5nV<0}3=855&3?

'‰^5'?s5$3PV:BV.CP=B539z'7N?"QR.$
@?4RbN5L+5&3ONh9354?&56•65'a=0"u5•?s
5Q30}3=85Ž5•45FN.|<d"r<5'"rB
55B=„5w."<5p3Bd"r3@.5'-5p3B?$N)_
V3?"50"u735j<h9354?@&35jW?N?"QL+.$
@=V35L+bN5&?3@6•<i,r35&3)0?3@6•
.3&6h<x
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [8]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
Hình 1: Quan hệ IS – LM – BP trong chế độ tỷ giá cố định.
Y
r
Y*
r*
G
E
F
BP
LM'
H
BP < 0
BP > 0
LM
IS'
IS
'755'"QuV9BNd85VB55q?3@\]‡‰N'‰^N4l5BV.C
75P=B53h5jz'75-?"QL+.$@=V35?"QL+b
h93546•65'5&3?3@2a=0"u5•0N0}3=853W?N
.|<d"r'"r3934B55B5C5<5p3B
d"r5•0@.5'-5p3B6?(N)_V36B&35j'?@?o30873

r
G
F
E
K
J
BP''
BP
BP'
LM'
LM
IS''
IS'
IS
dv5d/5B?7:P=B539ƒ85VB55q?3@\0?3@
6•6?(+75P=B539z'70?"QR.$@=V3
5RJh9354?&56•65'5&3?3@O<r3=0"u5•?s5Q3
0}3=855'"rŽ5•45FN.|<<d"r5•B
55B5w."<.?5p3Bd"r3d35p3B3i0
?s735j5•3B0=E&5'3N.?d859‚'|ƒ3<0"u
&35j?3<'|3?"Q%=„.$@=5'B35%J<?"Q
RJ=„.$@"u0&35Rb-5?3@6•r3<r3=
0"u<0}3=85?h3=<r3C53"<nNP=B5395B.C4
#5'<3j35•=0"u
?N5'l5'9450naL M>)N>877<
))O*2 P Q5MA=*2 )=PP 
QL7A
qxV5P5'N,-+./0020/3g'•a3jF:
P=B53h5j<P=B539VC57<#45p3B3?B3<E?7
93@=B5<z†3F3

75,C?@?3hm0}3=855'"r?70nV<r30}3=85"r3
 Độc lập tiền tệ và hội nhập tài chính được kết hợp6•B0A4?7
5p3B5o3"V35q6yC53o?$5p3B!r30ANPV:
]'"#^?"uFh5A.8?$0}3=85"?o30&35p3BV3<n
5/#45$5'"Q
 Ổn định tỷ giá và độc lập tiền tệ được kết hợp6•B0A5$5'"Q
<?LAiPV:V353450nV93@=B5<393@
=B5<N303j3x0}3=85<5p3B=„6$VB<ˆ
+755,?3jV:6766859530=A534C5B,C5'F0g
9354<i,A534C5.PV:V3?3w5<r375=A?B?o3!P.CN
4PV:73nV53P=#N67V335'6-5p5':
GC53|0&3]o?$5p3BP5#Nw?70nV53h5jP5#Nw945uV
3^B534Vn676685953"5'30B534Vn5'3E9,
V3534Vn5/GK?m53B3N?45PVkuV:=A?B
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [11]
Thị trường
vốn đóng
Tỷ giá
cố định
Tỷ giá
thả nổi
•?$
5p3B
)73nV
53P
P=B
53h5j
?70nV
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
?o33xGK634=5'676<€"?"u93@E75B5P?B‚

3E=….CB5"r?9Ba
 43?70nV53h5j?si<r3E?7?70nV:'"#
5-Cukierman và công sự (1992)?}?"'m=R.A<5PVBV0g]?70nV<h
w5VBV0g^N=?0m=<h5p0j5B36o3jE<C5?'
"#]?70nV5'5A54^Bm=?"u75=3E=….CNŒ&
YB/<!BXF/X]GGc^N390=]GGD^N'[/<+/./]GG ^NW'//'<7=A
]GGD^N3S0V.<S.)3]G^
 Rose (1996)?hd85?0"Q?70nV53h5j6•Bd/VE:5p
3B3?B3<r3x5?o35'=0"uN0}3=85<53h3?3<r3
53hNV"#VBV0&3"u?3@095@V63j5?"u5'5A54
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [12]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
?075l=<l=(53h5jN"3?43?$5?70"5,53h
5j09,?o3
 Obstfeld, Jay C. Shambaugh và Taylor (2005)?hd85?0"Q?70nV53h5j
.A<E5?o3:0}3=85.i&3NV"#VBV
Ž5'}3<-m.A:4<5'A3B93'•P=B53h5j:
4.A<E0}3=85C53#0.A5'=0"u53h5j
 @?B3BE?7o?$5A54:5p3BN75=5B3=….C,-
s3F545P.A5/5p3B5'?o353h5jvN?"u=….C?(536z3
Haldane và Hall (1991)N=??"uVo6346z32'9/0<_/3]9@5q??"u30
,-2'9/01_/3^O(?B?0"QŽ?"u<n.C5'x
3E:B5B39B"Bénassy-Quéré, Coeuré, và Mignon (2006), Shah,
Zeileis và Patnaik (2005), Frankel và Wei (2007)
 Lane và Milesi – Ferretti (2006)?hd85?0"Q73nV53P5'5A54
6•5p0j5ou<53="r35'B55B3?0"Q5o
0"uu<53="r35'B55BN5=„58?"uE?793@
=B5<5'5A54F3??5/?o3
 Aizenman, Chinn và Ito (2008)VB55'3@755nVuVs3hm=]3./d^
:0g545676685953?@?0"QE?7:†3G5'GK0AP

N3
T
^^ŠGN.?m=+R6•
Gcl55@i'•P=B0}3=85?$075.83j:?70nV53h5j3N9
•0F3=z5&3=….Cx,C9B?@5A53P=B53h5j5<-=….C,C0}3=85
]<P.C"=….C5p0j.A5'x6567wBV453P^!3jŽ99•5B35'
<3j?0"Q+R!-54N5B39,5@5975BPdB<?(?:B.x03?@5P5B
m=+RW?N5'5'"QuVNd/+R3B5'$0Gc0uV0g
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [13]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
'?a
” 3a0F3=z5&3N
” Ta0F3#=z
/3<R5N.x03j0}3=85?"u085q953PF54:
R+2]>Ge2•^3<r3xF30}3=855$5'"Q9,w'85&
45-.x03j=„?"u6o=5q)}53P06/'5/5qFg]>G•e2•^
<0}3=8553h…35qR2]>GLe2^
2.2.1.5. Ổn định tỷ giá (Exchange Rate Stability - ERS)
7o?$5p3BP0?70j‚:5p3BN?"u5P5/•.A5'
.x03j5p3B†35B5"#E3xF3=z5&3<F3#=z7o?$5p
3B•3x3B5'$G<N\;534<h5-5p3Bo?$
\;?"udB?$5/,5E=a
B?0"Q?7o?$5p3B=„3lVl5dB?$?"uE?7o?$
:5p3B5'5A5475F3?BV.CE9,V3.A5'P=B
5p3BF3?56
4m?#5(BV.C,5E5-m=?0"Q?7o?$5p3B
d"r'85y3hi0=„V?&3E?703&5:5p3BN?w
63j50935p3B.?75'7563?7–V"0&39,?"u?$3B0&3
5"Qd
c

C53P=B:B"r
>

m=SZ%\634535'’GN“N3B5'$:m=58
F3z…#<r3x3.$<dF35B3=….C.x
03j:DF3]9,6s+™^5'=533?&` GGG`
SZ%\"u?3@09,VB?lEx-.3'5'5A
54N850<3j9<A5"5-3B5'BvB63jVBV93@=B5<:
PV:C5@0B=3=559•5'B55BF54N
.€?4B=3=0.9<A.3jV5-B@53h
d633r3<-3hC?P9B75="u?3@"m=
SZ%\?"u3h9354?B3B?}VB?"uBC53P=B
F5'75F35/?o35'FB5'-73nV53P
Sự tương quan giữa chỉ số KAOPEN với
các chỉ số đo lường mức độ hội nhập tài chính khác
Các chỉ số khác
Tương quan
với chỉ số
KAOPEN
Phạm vi lấy mẫu Ghi chú
Quinn (1997) DKN`
`c  `` a    F  3
,3jV
`cDN` KN`D<`DDa
MGF39vVB55'3@
Wx  03j  ?"u  E  n  6z3
S;\S;  5'"r  ``>N  6o  =
5,53<hB3jV"rF54
<r3B5oE<F39B
Mini DGN `DKGGMaKMF3

5'"Q53P73?$N]^3
.$539<N]K^5$5'"Q
<
Kaminsky và Schmukler –
trọng tâm các giao dịch
trên tài khoản vốn
> N> ``>GGc
]^ msB3.$  53
9<
Kiểm soát dòng vốn đi vào
– Potchamanawong (2007)
>N
``cGGMa>F3r3
o3
WA<5,535qS;\S\;
<hD3 .$ 53 9<
=``>N<.A5'93@=B5
<?"uBV.C<r3.|<
<'
Kiểm soát dòng vốn đi ra –
Potchamanawong (2007)
GND
``cGGMa>F3r3
o3
WA<5,535qS;\S\;
<hD3 .$ 53 9<
=``>N<.A5'93@=B5
<?"uBV.C<r3.|<
<'
2.2.2. Tương quan tuyến tính giữa các chỉ số bộ ba bất khả thi

3N93=A35•5'm=:75634685953N?si<r3<3j75=A=C535'
6346859535ENw6345EKNw3
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [16]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
d/5'3N5'75=5'"QuV935-5'&<,9m0n5539FB
35'N:0&VB5d85VB55qxl=5's
]3B03jN0"#5A5•0^Nw53h35•FBEN850?@535'u
x"#5'-353:PV:5-B3/.i:5p3BŽ
90|3lVF3?5@93h40&VB5<o?$<i,!r3=A0A
P=BN'•'PV:?}85?35P?70nV5'<3j5A53B,C
:P=B53h5jm|5',Q<35B.C:P=B539?@5A
3jP=BV9*5'?3h93j5C5=B9,V30<8?h
0??(B0P=B:F3
; 0 31>))*
!r3=A0AN5p3B5o3=„3lVPV:5@:?7=….C
x,CP=B53h5jV9*N<58535p3B0l9,|0
B3/.i<<-<nNh93545@'#3<B36€0&VB5465
P=B53h5j9,?:&?@5&'B3/.iO33VBV<8?h
05k57<P=B0&VB5C53<5P?70nV:)_
3N4.|<?o<FBEN850<5$5'"QE
9B<685?7==„.€?45p3B5A?"u?$3BFB]?s735j03B^
=„.€?45C5539<}03<.€?4#9:7593.|
<?3hP=B5p3BP503&5k<r3<3j?$3B58V?s735j
5@35•d859‚534?4=A35•5'534593j<?(5"•5•5'"z
9354+w59BN=A=CV?o:4?75p3B5o395'B9y393wVV375l
=5q79:53P:B"r5'9<A5B?7d8?4j
553PN5•5p0j0&VB5<vs0A:F3NP<-<n
3h9354'•N3h93<3j?B?o3:P=B5p3B5o3?@
?"u?70nV53h5j9,0&3945FF3
R SL7

0"Q634?7=0"u]=….C6=03j%/_'0.>^šw634?7:
0&VB5w5p0j0&VB55'&
L+
35
0</5':5'656859-:6766859530+RN\;N
SZ%\;
35
 0?70r:.A5'x&33]5'q?3<^5'OW%<5P=
]L+
35
d;
35
^06345"#5B3x676685953<.A5'x&335B3
?w63j5F5?45P=6z3<-.x5'A&335@554w6o=
B0nV5'"QP=B9B
ƒ
35
0</5'B63493@=B59354<i,6sa5nV5"#?3:
75F3=<r3+™š-V"#:5nV5"#?3š?7z…5"#&3]Š
]\ƒ”R+^—OW%^šxl=Z]5/'=U5'./a5p0j5"#&3^šE?75n
9*539š634?75'5•5'"z53h+š0"u5P.CB5'
OW%?@?0"QE?7VB55'3@<h53Pš634?7:0&VB5<5p0j0&
VB5
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5
0</5':xl=5(a5?o35'0}3=855A:+™š0†
o=0"u5(šxl=5'3B.(
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05nVuV:B6343?w5'""06343BF3nV

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Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
+75,C?@3@63454?75p3B5'5A540=….C,-s3F
545P5'#=z5p3Bv3xB?s53h]<r3?s53h5'3VkuV^
"u=….C5q•``6z3)0./<)00N,-?"uVo634'7'}36z3
2'9/0<_/3].?|?"u30,-2'9/0_/3^+75=3E
<n.CV"#VBV?B3B5@9@?4"v==v'vN/'v<
+3]GG>^NNe/30/3=<%539]GGc^<2'9/0<_/3]GG ^!P.CN
63454?75p3B5A54:{70-N55@0A?s53h5'30?s
/']\œ;^"755,=?0"Q6859*5',-s3F'5'"QuV
NV"#5'-s3F5@0a
%"#5'-s3F58E?7.?75p3B:R;—)25?o3
"545/.?75'5p3BœW—)24?s;V//{7]R;^
?$=<r3?s,0+™]œW^N.?75'5p3B?sn5]Y%‡^<?s
'9E]W\+^=„6•G4R;9,/?$<œWNGKj=•=„9BG
;

5'V"#5'-s3F534<hN4?75p3B?$

III. PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [19]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
3.3. Phương pháp nghiên cứu
(1) Thước đo bộ ba bất khả thi của Chinn-Ito
(2) Phương pháp nghiên cứu chế độ tỷ giá (mô hình Frankel - Wei)
(3) Phương pháp tiếp cận của chỉ số Lane và Milesi-Ferretti (2006)
m=:L/<+30/=32/''/553?0"Q930"uu<53="r3
5'B55B3?0"Q5ou<53="r35'B
55BN5=„58?"uE?793@=B5<5'5A54F3?5/?o3
 %"#VBV?0"Q:G5B3.A5'GB"r0"ua
” 'A534Va5B308=03j<hB6BB:B5oE53P9354
543r3"R+2N_<:B"r3E
” O3B534Va5'3h5'"QuV534<=03jw=03j9,?s
85N5B3=….CV"#VBV.|5P0™<r33B5'$5•5]i0=…
.CV"#VBV"r0"uN59?@5P5Bd/=03jFB•5•3
63˜5q?"r?B?"u3B5'$:B•=wB•|534^
 u"r3?"u35GM9Ca
” (5".CaE9B<<E9Bu]5'B3V34<B,
Cu5$5'"Q^
” (5"5'A534Va?(5"r3<?(5"Fh93@=B553=
” (5"9BaB,Cu<5P.C5"#&3
” E9BVB5=3
 3="r335Gc9CaGM9C5"#5Au"r
3759C.A5'xP5E
 B=03j06•Em=73nV53P5'5A54a
” •E5q5oB.|?4OW%ap=5"#&3—OW%?"u
?$i05od859‚<nV9‚N?"u5@3j."r3.&V(5'•
:OW%p=?0"Q=Az…:5"#&3+75V(z'7?#3
:g5"z05p=3x5oB.|<d633r35'B55B

.R+2VB5
D
#=z.x03j5875=?3@•?3<r35qh
9354N<r3B3B5'$5qND]?3<r3Bh9354B539<5
9vV9PE^?4”NcK]?3<r3Bh93549BB539<55A
.^+w.k5"Q?"u=….C?@?B3B<3j5A3j93@=B5<<hw5
VBV0g"67.x03j:3R5<€x&485?$E85N67.x
03j9,65?(?:?"u<3jr30y.(93@=B5<N<-54534V5C
?"'xm=35'q93585B&4?"u0&36yE3Nm=
5•?B9@?3<r3(45B"r,3jV5'x•(?N93?"
'B63jVBV6?503F?4V|'…53hN9:6
53PN<B63jVBV03F
Hình 4: Mức độ mở cửa tài khoản vốn của tất cả các nền kinh tế
trong năm 1970 và năm 2007
TU5V5BW)=3>8DU3 =L
@XDSY5&Z'@[5)7">)Y5;''Z@[5)7
\S3';@[7P';P]O'&P]V>X5^ @X_
@5BW)=3>8>)'&P]V>X5^ @X_@P
W)=3>8`<7T)@567L7<3* aP
@^bA2cC7DS
8
!P.C"%BV]755'x"r,3jV3k5A3jz…539<^
3B5'$5•5qN ?3@]•` G^?4NcK?3@]•``c^+755P.C9B0R'='/0NB3B5'$
5qNK]•`` ^?4cK]•GGM^
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [21]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
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?7z…539<:585Bh93545/5"r?3R55'G•

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9:53PHd'N<3j5A.539<?}0m=:
)5qNK5•0GNG`5'•``c3N•``>Nm=3
5'z0&3ENKN<9,5?o3?493)F5'z0&35A3j5A.
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]•` G^0?4GN`>]•`Dc^9:53PHN<3j93@=B5
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5'"r9:<€"?&5?"u9@5q?3NFB5'-73nV53P
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V"#VBV:3R5.=A5?o35'?$iV"#VBVNŽ"
9,9•65xr30y5'93@=B5<9,03F?4
<3j0&36y5x&4
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [23]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
Bảng 1: Quá trình tự do hóa tài khoản vốn của Ấn Độ, Trung Quốc,
và Hàn Quốc, mức bình quân của Asia 11 theo phương pháp Chinn-Ito
`3)U67 e?P)=3>8DmO07n78O>)
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S ]28@A SDm>)07n787e_
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=B()n78Oa%8D678)e=<52 >8h17
_$7=D3)*Sg7iO()n78LQ7e]28B5V&O&R
LY5;'''O7lLY5;''Ze]28)hYl5V'O&d3
@BD>?P)=3>8
Năm

p=5"#&3—OW%?"u?$i05o0"ud85nV9‚346
3˜:OW%N5p=?0"QE?7z…:5"#&3ž5"z
?"uVB55'3@?@?0"QE?773nV53P6•5p=3x5oB.|<
53Pd633r35'B55B]Z%^5'OW%
•93@=B55p3B3?B3:'"#VC57<
930"u.|<F633r3B"r5'B5$5'"Q&33@
3.$'|5'•N55BnV9‚N93&d859‚<B.|53
PŽ"z?45p3BW|<6s539<}03
<B3.$539N3.$539<}030rg73nV53
Lớp: Cao học Ngân hàng Đêm 2 - Khóa 22 - Nhóm 17 [24]
Bài nghiên cứu: Châu Á đương đầu với bộ ba bất khả thi
P='7N.@.$<F633r35,F5"#&353@
&%539N/V5N<]GG`^?}m''•93B539<}03
0r5-5"#&353@&d'N?3h99•5'<3j93@=B5
</B3Er3:%539<5-B,5?F3?75
<35'|?B9@5'<3j73nV53P:Bh9354B633E
03F9B?}8&03945G3h3x<3jz…539<<53
9<}03]S3X/]GGK^šS3X/<]GGM^^!-54l5,3F=B5
5oB.|5"#&3<539<"075B?0"Q=A73nV
5(:75h93543h?"5"#&3<73nV53P<
539
)->58FB5'-5(5/5Q335&39<AS=3]9,
6s!3j5N.9,.x03j^!3jz…539<0OW%5'
6-5•5q9GG˜]•``D^09>G˜]•GGD^B3B5'$5'
6-=30j5•06z3=A3j.3j:Bh9354y<73nV="
3V'/<)s,
Hình 6: Giá trị trung bình của các dòng vốn luân chuyển/GDP của Asia 11
`<7T)  5V)_7P?lg* N
2>X9:.)Y59 &@AV>X5V&''qD9:.5Y5
(@X@^>*7%e>)7>D  )=L,2