ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI
TRUNG TÂM NGHIÊN CỨU TÀI NGUYÊN VÀ MÔI TRƢỜNG

ĐINH TRỌNG KHANG
NGHIÊN CỨU ĐÁNH GIÁ TÁC ĐỘNG
CỦA BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU ĐỐI
VỚI ĐƢỜNG QUỐC LỘ KHU VỰC MIỀN TRUNG

Chuyên ngành: Môi trƣờng trong phát triển bền vững
(Chƣơng trình đào tạo thí điểm)
LUẬN VĂN THẠC SĨ KHOA HỌC MÔI TRƢỜNG 
GS.TSKH Trƣơng Quang Học

Hà Nội - 2013

i

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






.


.





 
 
.
Tôi 

 - -


.





Đinh Trọng Khang
ii
LỜI CAM ĐOAN





H Ni, ngy thng năm 2013
Tác giả
Đinh Trọng Khang


 7
1 8
 8

iv
 8
 9
 11
1.2 11
1.2 14
NG 2. KHÁI  16
 16
 16
 17
 19
 21
 21
2.2.2.  25
 26
2.3.  27
2.3.1.  27
2.3 31
 31
 33
 33
 43
3. 63
3.4  66
 66
 70


vi
DANH MỤC CÁC CHỮ VIẾT TẮT
ADB





CSHT





GEF
GTVT


HST
hái
IPCC
IMHEN


KHCN
 
KKL

KNK

 vii
DANH MỤC CÁC BẢNG
 16
 18

o
 64
 65
 70
 76
 83
 84
 85

viii
DANH MỤC CÁC HÌNH
Hình 1 11
Hình 2 22
Hình 2 28
3.1. 

 33
 33
 34
 34
Hình 3.5.  35
Hình 3.6.  35

 54
 55
 56
 56
 56
 56
  57
Hình. 3.49.  57
Hình. 3.50. D 57
 57
Hình. 3.5 58
 58
 58
 58
 58
 59
 59
 . 59
 67
  67

x
 68
 68
 69
 73
 73
 74
 75
 75





- 
  . 
- 


2

 
do các KH.
             


am
 
là
23.745 08 301 ,
.





C 
2. Mục tiêu nghiên cứu
-  
- 


- 
 ;
-       

-  .

4
4.2.Ý nghĩa thực tiễn
l 
      
ngành GTVT  nói riêng.
5. Cách tiếp cận và phƣơng pháp nghiên cứu
5.1. Cách tiếp cận





and Davenport, 2006).


              




Trong luận văn ny, tôi đã sử dụng cch tiếp cận HST như cch tiếp cận chủ
đạo, xem xét cc vấn đề về ti nguyên, môi trường, biến đổi khí hậu, KT-XH trong
mt tổng thể có mối tương tc lẫn nhau trong hệ sinh thi-xã hi. Tuy nhiên do đặc

     


 
 

 


6
. 
                 
 
       

           

5.2.3. Phƣơng pháp đánh giá xu thế biến đổi các yếu tố khí hậu

                
Xian (t): X = a0 + a1ta0 a1 là
           
t a1 cho
a1>0a1<0
a1 
và nnk, 2011].  

 

5.2.4. Phƣơng pháp đánh giá mức độ biến đổi các yếu tố khí hậu

 
 
 8
CHƢƠNG 1
CƠ SỞ LÝ LUẬN VÀ TỔNG QUAN
1.1. Cơ sở lý luận
1.1.1 Những khái niệm về BĐKH
- Biến đổi khí hậu (climate change)
       

.  ngày 13/11/ 2013,



 s 

 
- UNFCCC, 1992].






 
 
.

1.1.2 Tính hệ thống và liên ngành của nghiên cứu và triển khai về BĐKH


            


10


2


[IPCC, 2007].







Biến đổi khí hậu 2001








thành - 

12
       nhà hóa     Svante
 
kính và gây ra  [ Tr .
 

 
Galbraith, Price và Shackman (2005) trong công trình nghiên cn 2
ca Scotland v các s kin thi tit cy ra và vi
tác thit k, khai thác mng b Scottish road network climate change
study” ã nghiên cng ci các kch b
2050, 2080 cho GTVT ti Scotland,  xut các gii pháp v thit k, khai thác và
chính sách thích ng.
The effect of Climate change on 3 counties
alliance partnership (3CAP) highway network policies and standards  nghiên
cng c ra các chính sách, tiêu chun thích ng cho
m  ng cao tc ca ba thành ph thu  c Anh (Derrby,
Leicester, Nottingham).
Ban nghiên cu GTVT Anh (2011) trong tác phAdapting transportation
to the impacts of climate changeu tng quan v thích ng ca ngành
i vng cc Anh. Tài li
n hình v ri ro và d b t phi mt ca c
quc trong vic quy ho ng c
Maunsell (2008) vImpact of climate change on Australia’s road
and bridge infrastructure:   ra 7 kch bng ca chúng ti h
th h tng cng b  i và gii pháp
thích ng v
       Climate change uncertainty
and the state highway network: A moving target ng tim tàng
ci vi quy hoch, xây dng và duy trì mng cao tc New

Tt c các nghiên cu, trin khai (R&D) trên phm vi toàn cc tng
hp trong 5 báo cáo ca IPCC:

14
- 1 (AR1): 1990
- 2 (AR5): 1995
- 3 (AR3): 2001
- Báo 4 (AR4): 2007
-  (AR5): 2013/2014
1.2.2. Nghiên cứu trong nƣớc về BĐKH


 
              
BKH 
mq
- Kế hoạch hnh đng
ứng phó với biến đổi khí hậu của B Giao thông vận tải giai đoạn 2011 - 2015.









 
  
